<DrumBeat: January 2, 2008The Oil DrumDrumBeat: January 3, 2008>

151 comments on $100 Oil - Open thread

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Nate Hagens on January 2, 2008 - 7:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thanks Yoon - Im often imprecise on my maths.

I did not see that article but thanks - NG was up 5% in US today, actually more than crude oil. I am curious as to the price elasticity of these two major fossil fuels in the event of a recession/depression. At least in the US, low NG prices in last couple years have caused complacency, as one might expect, and more electricity generation is from gas than 2 years ago - we have a cold pig of lows running across US now and there are rumours of a record weekly withdrawal of NG from the system (300 bcf?) might be in the cards.

I assume Aberdeen has fewer 'degree heating days' than Midwest, USA. FYI - the back months of the NYMEX strip have been making daily life of contract highs since early December.

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Euan Mearns on January 2, 2008 - 8:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

We have snow on the way tonight and interesting times ahead. I gotta say I love the snow.

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MicroHydro on January 2, 2008 - 8:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

What it means to me is that my mfglobalfutures screen was covered with big green numbers at the close. HUZZAH!!! It might be TEOTWAWKI but I'll be drinking champagne in the microhydro bunker.

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Nate Hagens on January 2, 2008 - 8:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

ya
also green were:
soybeans
eurodollar
corn
natural gas
wheat

don't spend it all on one sling pump.

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MicroHydro on January 2, 2008 - 9:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Don't forget gold's all time closing high. (The legendary Jan 1980 $875 gold record was intraday.) Of note in 1980 the gold price peaked immediately prior to the proclamation of the Carter Doctrine which restored confidence in the petrodollar - backed by military threats. What can be said now that would restore confidence in the US dollar?

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Nate Hagens on January 2, 2008 - 9:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"We were just kidding - heres all your oil back" ?

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cassini83 on January 2, 2008 - 8:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nate, according to Bloomberg the NYC gate spot for natural gas went up $7.47 to $16.61 per MMBtu today. That's over 81% increase in a single day! What's your source for the 5% increase?
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html
I hope I'm not missing something obvious here :-)

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Nate Hagens on January 2, 2008 - 8:24pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Spot prices in northeast spiked for some reason, but I didnt know they got that high? Is that right -anyone? I referred to Nymex website.

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cassini83 on January 2, 2008 - 8:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This might explain it: http://icons.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xus_st_anim.gif We're probably seeing a sudden spike of the demand in the midwest and to a lesser extent the northeast that can't be met by the limited supply. My plan to replace my 30 year old 60% AFUE gas furnace with a more efficient one might have to change in favor of a electric furnace or a heat pump.

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Durandal on January 3, 2008 - 11:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I love the heat pump at our house. However, in sub-freezing temperatures, the heat pump can do very little unless it's a ground loop heat pump. Under 0*C, it's using the resistance heating coils which are substantially less efficient than the heat pump. I didn't design the house I live in, but the next one I will, which will contain many south-facing windows with an overhang to prevent solar gain during the summer. (Also triple-paned to boot!)

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shargash on January 2, 2008 - 8:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Bloomberg has natural gas (as well as oil and gold) on its front page. It showed it closing at 7.85, which I think was close to its high for the day. I hadn't heard anything about it more than doubling to $16+.

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shargash on January 2, 2008 - 8:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I remember reading somewhere (yeah, hearsay, I know) that during the CA energy crisis a 2% shortfall in natural gas supplies resulted in a quadrupling of the spot price.

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SailDog on January 3, 2008 - 7:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi Nate

Bloomberg had NY city gate spot at over $18 earlier. It caught my eye for sure, but I cannot remember the exact number. They are showing $16.61 now.

I presume there is some local shortfall factor (-9C maybe?). Luckily here in Oz it is T shirts and the beach all round.

Rod

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Slatz on January 3, 2008 - 2:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

here is a link for spot prices to all of the various gas trading points

https://www.theice.com/marketdata/naNaturalGas/naIndex.jsp;

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