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313 comments on DrumBeat: January 7, 2008
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313 comments on DrumBeat: January 7, 2008
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Gulf of Tonkin, Part Two?
CNBC just reported that oil prices were up, after being down in early trades, because of reports that three US Navy ships were "harassed" in the Persian Gulf by Iranian gunboats. The US military called it a "significant provocative act."
I just posted that one over at PeakOil.com. Here's a link:
U.S. says Iranian gunboats harassed warships
That is just ducky ... will make a nice bookend to the chaos brewing in Pakistan. A clean sweep for the Bushies - trouble from the coast of the Mediterranean all the way to Kashmir. George must think he is Alexander of Macedonia or something.
Now tell me, when does Congress put a stop to this foolishness?
About the same time any of the Constitution loving canidates get on board with Impeachment. Going along with things means the Congress-kritter will trend towards keeping the lights on and their bellies full. Going against the flow trends towards unemployment, being hungry and in the dark.
(Wayne Madsen http://mp3.wtprn.com/Madsen.xml has claimed there is enough dirt on most everyone in Congress that if one goes down, they all go down)
One old candidate, George McGovern made the call yesterday. One can only hope the other Democratic candidates will sign on too.
E. Swanson
You mean like Kucinich? He's introduced impeachment for Cheney... No other candidate even comes close to him on the issues. He's the only pro-Peak Oil candidate, as far as I know, and so far as I can tell, the most active on environmental issues. Here's list of issues he discusses in various videos found on youtube:
Peak Oil
- Peak oil is a fact
- being depleted faster than found
- at peak oil
- get off oil
- Government for sustainability
- Rosoe Bartlett referenced
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjiGuOsKr04
Education
- Free pre-school for 3-5
- Universal university/college w/ service programs
- Environmental Ed.
Environment/Trade
- massive infrastructure investment for mass transit
- energy efficient contruction
DOE: disincentives for oil, coal and nuclear incentives for wind and solar micro-technology (and businesses) to provide energy to homes and businesses across the country
- All trade agreements tied to environmental principles
- Cancel NAFTA
- Dept. of Interior: remove all incentives for natural resource extraction, including uranium to protect natvie American lands.
- NASA technology to boost green research
- Gov't as an engine of sustainability
Healthcare
- not-for-profit w/focus on prevention
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqVwkKL859A&feature=user
HR1234
- leave Iraq
- International security and peacekeeping simultaneous to withdrawal
- Leave it stable
- Let them keep their oil
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1AhaH1ozbg&feature=user
Corporate personhood
- Regulate
- Review corporate personhood
- Hold responsible for public interest
- transparency
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6FY3YlxND4&feature=user
all for him. now who are the nominees ?
Bush arrives in the middle east for an 8 day visit - which includes Israel - this week.
One side or the other is rattling the cages in time for that.
Maybe he plans to ascend to Heaven on a mushroom-shaped cloud?
These types of feignts to guage a potential adversary's reaction have been going on forever. In the cold war US and Soviet submarines were constantly tailing and trying to intimidate each other. The US Navy might as well get used to it. The Iranians aren't going to retreat from the Persian Gulf (where would they go?), and no one is served by an over reation.
If Iran really wanted to attack an American Destroyer they would do it with a Silkworm missile barrage, not a speed boat full of trash talking Revolutionary Guards. The truth is that military tensions in the Gulf are significantly reduced from just a couple of months ago. A deal has been cut. The Iranians have stopped supplying IEDs to the Shiite militias and the US in turn has published the NIE that takes the military option off the table.
Bush is headed to the Middle East this week to wave the flag. Iran doesn't want anyone to forget that they are the emerging power in the region. But it would be foolish to misinterpret this naval gamesmanship as a genuine threat.
I agree--just like the Gulf of Tonkin incident.
You totally missed the point Westexas. During the cold war these types of things happened more times than we even know. The Gulf of Tonkin incident is one of thousands of such incidents that happened in the past. While its possible this incident could turn into something, the chances are less than .1%.
IMHO, no, he didn't.
Look to the MSM now.
They are making a big deal of this.
Sure sign it was planned.
I agree, it kind of looks like the moron-in-chief and co. are looking for a new excuse to attack Iran now that their claim about nuclear weapons production has been disproven.
Didn't Iran just recently go and capture a bunch of British sailors claiming that they were in Iranian waters though? Maybe the pissing contest is on both sides.
You totally missed the point Westexas.
And you understand missing the point because?
http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/54/106.html
Lets see - fake incident
The Gulf of Tonkin incident is one of thousands of such incidents that happened in the past.
So you are claiming there are thousands of fake incidents? Incidents people 'feel bad' about later?
Oh, pray tell, do you have a list of them?
Do ya think?
The question is, what do Bush/Cheney plan to do. I suggest that you research the Gulf of Tonkin Incident.
Already did, and like I said it was one of hundreds of these types of military incidents that have occurred in the past. I acknowledged that it could turn into something, its just highly highly likely not to. Best hopes for TOD members not turning into this guy:
http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b358/Collin24/tweek3.jpg
Already did, and like I said it was one of hundreds of these types of military incidents that have occurred in the past.
Great! Then share with us the benefit of your research, and list the (now down to hundreds, was thousands) other incidents of faked conflict.
Extra points if the people involved later regret involvement.
(over a day later I note you have not responded - and reasonable, informed people thank you for retreating from your incorrect statement)
You are the one missing the point. Military gamesmanship happened all the time during the cold war. What WT is referring to is that the Gulf of Tonkin was faked. Totally, corruptly faked, in order to gain support for a war that should have never occurred.
antidoomer -
I am well aware that there were plenty of cat-and-mouse games played between US and Soviet subs and aircraft during the Cold War. These perhaps served a legitimate purpose in testing each others' capabilities and defenses.
However, I get a very bad taste with this particular one. As you probably know, the Iran Navy is essentially a third-rate force consisting of 3 Russian Kilo class subs plus a handful of frigates, corvettes, fast missile boats, and a whole bunch of tiny patrol boats. So, there really wouldn't be much point in Iran's testing of our capabilities because they have to know they would get thoroughly stomped in any outright armed naval conflict with the mighty US Navy.
So, the questions in my mind are i) WHY? and ii) WHY NOW?
Given the delicate situation between Iran and the US, why would the Iranian government want to provoke the US and give the Bush regime the pretext for the attack it would love to launch against Iran? It would appear to me that the Iranians would have little motivation in creating an incident, whereas the Bush regime has plenty of motivation, much of it quite obvious.
Then we have the question of whether this incident has anything to do with Bush's upcoming visit to Israel, a visit in which what to 'do' about Iran will surely be discussed in exhaustive detail.
As with the Gulf of Tonkin incident, what is made of the incident by the US will be far more important than the physical incident itself. In this case no missiles were launched, no shots were fired, and no vessels from either side were damaged. Yet, I suspect that the Bush regime and the MSM are going to milk this one for all it's worth. How they play this will tell you a lot about what is really going on.
Given the overall situation, I am not so readily inclined to believe that this was just a case of some good 'ol boys in the Iranian Navy having a little fun with the Americans. Could it be that the Iranians have concluded they are going to be attacked by the US one way or the other, so it might be to their advantage to start trouble on their terms and their schedule rather than that of the US?
One could speculate forever, but the proof will be the degee to which this is made out to be a big deal requiring positive military action.
"Given the overall situation, I am not so readily inclined to believe that this was just a case of some good 'ol boys in the Iranian Navy having a little fun with the Americans. Could it be that the Iranians have concluded they are going to be attacked by the US one way or the other, so it might be to their advantage to start trouble on their terms and their schedule rather than that of the US?"
It's quite the opposite, tensions are lower. the Iranians know they won't be attacked, so they are feeling their oats.
Testudo -
Well, tensions at least outwardly APPEAR to be lower, partly as the result of the release of the NIE report stating that Iran ceased its nuclear weapons program in 2003.
However, this is precisely what the Bush regime does NOT want. If Iran's nuclear weapons program has turned out to be a non-existent issue, then I fear the Bush regime will be desperately searching for another justification for attacking Iran. The neocons in the Bush regime have been pressing for such an attack, as has Israel and its backers in the US. Thus, a manufactured or overblown incident would appear to fit right in with that overall strategy.
I don't know .... if I were an Iranian, I don't think I'd feel so confident about not being attacked until after Bush leaves office. Then of course we have the possibility of Israel going free-lance and making an attack all on its own, with the full expectation that the US will automatically come to Israel's defense when Iran counterattacks.
Well, I suppose that about a year from now we'll know for sure whether or not this will have turned out to be a legitimate worry.
If they did not want tensions lowered then why did they put out the NIE?
There was a battle within the Bush administration about how to deal with Iran. It was a battle between the neocons (led by Cheney) and the moderates (led by Rice). That battle is over, the moderates won. That's why most of the neocons have left the administration.
You can see the moderate foreign policy influence on the North Korean policy, and the broader Mideast policy. It is why they went back to Clinton's cash-for-disarmament agreement with North Korea, it is why they sponsored the recent Mideast Peace Conference and backed away from Israel (to a degree), it is why they engineered Bhuto's return to Pakistan to put a non-military face on the elections there.
But most critically it is why the Bush administration backed away from the precipice with Iran. It seems like Rice and Cheney were in a stalemate, but with Gates at DoD, the military clearly opposed confrontation with Iran and tipped the balance.
Is it possible that some rogue neocon (or revolutionary guard) element will try to engineer a confrontation to undermine the detente? Sure anything is possible. But the leadership in Washington and Tehran have struck their bargain. The US gets relative security in Iraq, Iran gets to keep their enrichment program, and the rest of the world gets an uneasy peace.
Possibly the neo-cons have merely been useful to the real power brokers, who did not want to invade Iran? http://dandelionsalad.wordpress.com/2007/12/30/the-post-bush-regime-a-pr...
As I've said before on this site, any rational person must come to the conclusion that an unprovoked attack on Iran by the US/Israel would be political and economic suicide. True, Iran does not have nukes. BUT, Iran has overpowering influence in Iraq. They have 2.5 mbpd export capacity of oil. They also the only bulwark of relative stability in the ME, as horrendous as the regime is.
Bush surprised some with the Iraq attack, but an attack on Iran is not even in the realm of possibility right now or the near future.
Iran may not even need nukes. The way the SCO agreements seem to be written would almost guarantee that if israel goes imperial again and attacks Iran Putin almost has to lay an egg on them.
First Iran is not a member of the SCO only an observer. Second how a link to this susposed mutual defense agreement you think exists.
So, the questions in my mind are i) WHY? and ii) WHY NOW?
Lets see debates last night. NH tomorrow, If people are feeling (because of IN THE NEWS scary stuff), Hmmm. maybe just MAYBE NH would go for a HAWK pro-lets-get-those-guys type of nominee...
Nah, that's too cynical about our Gov.
Or is it?
The Iranian coastal forces have only one capability that the US Navy might be interested in testing - the various anti-ship missiles it has obtained. Yet from what I hear of the US Navy, its leaders greatly fear any proof that missiles can defeat our ships, especially carriers. If they care more about their ship-based career tracks and their lovely fleets than Bush's schemes, then they don't want to be exposed by one of these new Iranian weapons, any more than the battleship admirals of 1941 wanted to be exposed at Pearl Harbor. Those are epochal events, the kind that renders entire categories of ship (and admiral) obsolete. Consider the likely outcomes of the public outcry of the easy sinking of a US nuclear carrier with 5000 men:
1. We launch a nuclear attack using the Air Force. Navy looks obsolete.
2. We pull back like we had to in 1942, rebuild around submarines, cruise missiles, hovercraft, you name it, and retire much of the existing Naval bureaucracy.
However, the head-on collision of two Navy F-18s in the Gulf today will probably add to the frustration and jitteriness of the crews in the fleet. This is just what the Administration wants.
Lotta point missing going on.
The 1964 Gulf of Tonkin incident, which drew the US into the Vietnam war, never happened as it was reported in the media.
The Vietnamese attack on the USS Maddox may have happened after the Maddox fired first. The attack on the USS Turner Joy didn't happen.
And we are in entirely different territory now than we were then.
710 -
I'm not exactly sure what point you think is being missed, or by whom.
If it was easy for the US to start a war based on a largely fictional incident, as in the Gulf of Tonkin incident, then why is it not possible for the US to do the same with a real but overblown incident?
The motivation for the Gulf of Tonkin incident was to make LBJ appear tough on the commies and to create a crisis and thus steal some of the thunder from Barry Goldwater in the 1964 election. The motivation for creating a crisis out of this Iranian naval incident would be enable Bush to fulfill his agenda to 'fix' Iran.
Yes, we are in different territory now, but I'm not sure if you mean that it's less or more dangerous than it was in 1964. There are parallels, albeit inexact ones.
I sincerely hope this whole thing turns out to be a big nothing, but the people currently running our country appear to be capable of anything.
I was trying to be kind regarding the single point missed by antidoomer, regarding a largely fictional incident drawing us into a war that benefited few at the cost of many.
Why is beating the war drum not as effective now with something actual but greatly exaggerated? The world has become more complex, too many masters, more people have more access to information than ever before, more distractions, many people in the US are tired of the existing war, more people are distrusting government, dissent among the military, people actually worrying about the environment, I'm guessing.
But we'll get another crisis, and more attacks that did or didn't happen, and eventually there will be war.
We are in a far worse position now than we were then.
It was worse than that.
The US Navy was being used covertly to protect commando (or terrorist) raids by the Saigon regime against the coast of the North in retaliation for guerrilla (terrorist) attacks. We lied about that, of course.
The US never even talked to the Hanoi regime as though it was a sovereign government, or ever stopped plotting violence against it, from 1954 until Hanoi came close to toppling the post-Diem junta in 1964. It was Hanoi's violence that actually got the US to acknowledge its right to exist. Yet again proving that force is the only thing the US respects - or a successful nuclear bomb program.
Careful Jeff,
Everyones being way too literal about this. That particular dog has been put to rest. Nothing to see here. Tonkin was manufactured from thin air. Tonkin had a purpose. The gubment needed it. The moneymakers needed it. The arms dealers needed it. The vested interests (pick one) needed it. Tonkin was inevitable. This is nothing. So the media makes a big deal. That's MSM. We're at the point in time where the MSM doesn't even need direction from the invisible hand. They're on auto pilot. Just doing what they're trained to do.
Jeff
That's a nice story, anyway. Boys will be boys, but cooler heads prevail and all is muffled in poetic acronyms.
They'd probably use the Sunburn missile system and do their Russian and Chinese friends a favour with a field trial against US ships.
Let's not hyperventilate over the incident with the Iranian ships and the U.S. navy. No one fired a shot, and no one got hurt. It's not exactly going to change the world, and the price of oil has even dropped today.
But they almost fired a shot.
Traders have shrugged it off, though. Oil is down $3 on the January thaw and fear of recession.
In English, right? They're c-c-c-coming to k-k-k-kill us. Right.
The more we pay attention to this sort of news, the less we know.
cfm in very Gray, ME
Oh c'mon,
Almost doesn't even count in horseshoes and hand grenades. I've almost done a million things. compared to the crap our country pulls, this doesn't even rate as a non issue.
Jeff
PS No more network news for yuse guys without tunin' up the BS filters. ;^}
If I was out there on an American ship, and knew anything at all about recent naval war games I'd be changing my pants right about now.
War-Gamed
Tiny patrol boats are hauling Sunburn and Silkworm missiles. The heavier, supersonic Sunburn is a definite danger to a carrier and would likely take out an escort sized vessel with one strike.
If they're gonna pull something they'll pull it when a carrier is transiting the straight ...
SCT -
I believe the "real" Silkworm (a name given by the west to the original HY-1) is too heavy to be toted around in patrol boats. It's 2500kg.
HY-1: http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/hy-1.htm
Probably couldn't even get up on skis behind a boat w/something like that :-)
HY-2: http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/c-201.htm
I'm quite certain the radars on the HY series are profiled and jamming and other defensive measures are ready. I wouldn't be surprised at all if all the games are just an attempt to get the latest paint colors off the missiles by the US.
NR
How the heck do you get more info? There's no link on the CNN website, just a large banner! =/
Cheney & Blackwater subcontractors are busy making some right now. Please be patient and feel secure that we will not run short of sarconol no matter the other shortages that may appear.
Best Hopes for the next 379 days,
Alan
Alan,
You had me for a minute there...379 days? Next inauguration!?
Inauguration Day, January 20, 2009
It ain't over till it's over.
A historical footnote. It is my understanding that there appears to be no provision in the Constitution if something happens to the president elect between the election and Inauguration Day.
As far as I can tell, there is no change in power anyways. The same people will charge after the inauguration, so is there any importance to the date.
Ron Paul isn't likely to win, and even if he did, he would just get assassinated for his anti-Fed (NWO) attitude. The *REAL* powers that be won't let that happen.
I get the feeling (more and more lately) that these events are *scripted* and we are just along for the ride.
One of the many reasons I worry that GWB will supply a world war - it will answer many challenges provided by the current situation and make him and his colleagues even richer. Then he can move to Paraguay (but you have to wonder what wonderful things you have planned to need that move).
/tin hat off
Ron Paul isn't likely to win
I don't care if he wins, I wanna see the national discussion about money, the worldwide base network, et la.
To see laid bare - The worldwide base network allows you to have X, Y and Z. The money system means G, H, I.
It is quite possible the military base network *IS* wanted because it DOES keep the lights on and the bellies full.
It is possible that inflation destruction of savings is good.
But I'd like to see the discussion.
This script started a very long time ago.
Classic study of fascism creeping into American Democracy was written in the middle of WWII, and is available (free) in pdf format As We Go Marching, by John T. Flynn http://blog.mises.org/archives/005772.asp
Flynn suffered mightily for his efforts, as have more recent commentators (Michael Rupert comes to mind) which might explain the dearth of serious attempts to unhorse these riders.
If you want to read a real stunner, check out the Drudge Report:
TALK OF HILLARY EXIT ENGULFS CAMPAIGN
God I hope it's true. Go OBAMA.
Well, Drudge doesn't have a lot of credibility....
You should read the post.
Obama is a freight train, and Hillary's polling numbers are collapsing across the board. I think that Hillary has two huge strikes against her: her vote for the war and the BC/BC factor. If she were to serve 8 years, we would have had a Bush or Clinton in office for 28 years.
My own gut is that all you say is correct. And for that matter, I am quite delighted with this turn of events. My only point is that Drudge isn't always reliable, and if there is something breaking in the news it is probably better to find a more mainstream source.
And my own gut says that it is premature to talk of a Hillary exit.
All the Democratic candidates took a pledge, along with Ron Paul, to reverse some of the constitutional offenses of Bush. Clinton was the last Democrat to do so.
If Obama would make the forefront of his campaign that pledge and the need for further limitations on arbitrary executive power it would be reason enough for me to wholeheartedly support him. But the public actually seems to support the drift to dictatorship; it only resents the war because it doesn't work. The faltering economy and sense of crisis over the next 11 months will destroy any incentive for candidates to campaign on restoring the Constitution.
We will need a strong President in 2009 but not in the ways that the public wants.
Maybe she'll finally get around to baking that batch of cookies she was always talking about.
Make a deal with Obama for the VP slot, while she still has bargaining chips ?
I was hoping for Richardson as VP with "whoever" won D nomination. Between Iraq, recession, high oil and general disgust with GWB, the R candidate seems unlikely to win IMHO.
Best Hopes for ???
Alan
Oh man, Obama/Richardson would be most excellent.
I agree regarding Obama/Richadson--and think of the demographics, an African-American/Hispanic ticket.
Obama \ Gore, with Big Al providing some experience and keeping busy with environmental issues.
Yes!!! I keep telling people I'm voting Gore regardless of whether he is running or not. Time will tell if I have the nerve to do it on election day, I think it depends how close the race is and how disgusted I am with the D campaign.
I can remember that one of Gore's campaign issues in 2000 was that he was going to do something about suburban sprawl. Can you imagine how different things could have been?! If Gore had won the SCOTUS vote and gotten his way, maybe we wouldn't have seen $100 a barrel oil when we did. The thought just boggles the mind.
That is the reason I suspect that ticket would never happen, there could be the perception that one minority on the ticket would be enough - two would be pushing it.
I'm inclined to agree.
But honestly, I really don't care any more. I used to be really interested in politics, but now...I just don't see how any of these candidates (Ron Paul included) is going to make a difference. None of them seem to have a clue about the real problems we're facing.
And I find myself hoping the candidates that I like personally do not win, because whoever is in the White House is going to take the fall when TSHTF. And it looks more and more like it's going to happen in the term of our next president. If not a full-blown energy crisis or economic collapse, then at least a bad recession. Obama, Edwards, Hillary...they don't have a clue what they're in for, or they'd be running away, not running.
Which is probably why we haven't seen Big Al in the ring.
My guess is Gore is waiting. By 2012 the oil issue and the climate issue will be fully ripened.
I wouldn't say that's completely true, Richardson at least has a plan, and i'd love for him to be VP and be the anti-cheney on energy issues.
http://action.richardsonforpresident.com/page/s/energyplan
Just a footnote to your argument: it's interesting that these days the vice-president seems to be running things. I had that impression during the Reagan regime as well. At least during Reagan and Bush Jr, the role of the president appears to be a PR person, while big business manages (or mismanages) the country.
Geez, I don't support somebody because I personally like them or feel affection for them. Rather, it's because I think they are what the country needs (from the choice available).
That they might be thrown into a meatgrinder isn't an issue. They tend to be tough SOBs anyway. No point feeling sorry for them.
If that's true, you are highly unusual for an American voter. As Mark Crispin Miller pointed out in The Bush Dyslexicon, we've become a country that votes for people who seem like someone we'd like to have a beer with, not people who are qualified for the job. When Bush and Gore debated, did CNN, ABC, etc., talk about their stands on the issues or their knowledge of world affairs? No. The top story was Gore sighing and looking at his watch. And we ended up with the guy who thought the Taliban was a band.
In any case, I didn't say I was going to support anyone based on personal affection. But I'm a human being (contrary to popular belief ;-) and I like some people better than others. And I freely admit it. Frankly, I feel sorry for whoever gets the job. I even feel sorry for Dubya. I think he was half-hoping he'd lose the last election.
True, if Ron Paul had the looks, speech and delivery of a Fred Thompson then he would have a much better chance.
if he wasn't a racist bigoted crackpot he'd have a better chance
i find people's affection for Paul and Kucinich odd - they have one or two issues they talk about so people seem blind to everything else about them
How so? Kucinich is the only candidate I know of that is aware of and has spoken about Peak Oil. He's very pro-Constitution, anti-PA and MCA, he's the only one against the war from beginning to end that has actually voted that way every chance he's gotten, he's for true universal health care, he's pro-environment.
What I can't figure out is why people are NOT all over Kucinich...
What was that you said? I can't hear you over FOX news playing on my home theater system. Could you pass me the bowl of chips? Were out? Could you get in the SUV and go to WalMart and get some for me, I'm too fat to get up from the couch.
Now there is your average voter!
Turnout has been higher than expected in both Iowa and now it looks like NH. A small awakening? Too little, too late, I fear.
Leanan: "In any case, I didn't say I was going to support anyone based on personal affection. But I'm a human being (contrary to popular belief ;-) and I like some people better than others. And I freely admit it. Frankly, I feel sorry for whoever gets the job. I even feel sorry for Dubya. I think he was half-hoping he'd lose the last election."
Though it appears to be better with numerous candidates I make the suggestion that just before the November election we here at the TOD should hold a straw election using the APPROVAL method. That method is where voters get to vote for their top 2 or 3 candidates in a weighted, descending order. The candidate with the most votes, even if always second, wins our vote.
It'd be interesting to see how the APPROVAL voting method plays out among our readers.
Just before the November election, there will be only two candidates. Unless we get an independent like Bloomberg, the others will drop out.
The time for Aussie-style voting is now, IMO.
As an Australian, I can assure you it doesn't make a difference, our leaders are almost as clueless :)
As an Aussie who lived in the states for 7 years I can assure you that it makes an enormous difference. Imagine an Australia in which Howard lost the last election but stayed PM nonetheless. Imagine one in which your vote was systematically defrauded by the Libs hacking the vote counting machines. Imagine one in which Howard could veto legislation on a per-paragraph basis, or simply take out his pen and rewrite it to say whatever he wanted before he signed it.
Democracy in Australia may be flawed ... but it is still democracy. The USA is a rhinocracy.
In the approval voting system I have read about, one can vote for as many candidates as one likes, and there is no ranking or weighting at all. One is simply spliting the candidates into two groups - acceptable, and not acceptable. One can draw that line wherever one likes.
From what I've heard, it is a very effective way to pick the best person for the job. I think, though, that for every system there will be some situations where it doesn't work well. It's just that the approval method works well more often and fails less abysmally that most other systems.
For the record, I've never doubted your humanity. :-)
But I have worried that the Dark Muse was becoming unduly pessimistic, perhaps on account of the company she keeps! That's gotta take a toll.
If history is any guide, a real crisis will push some of the current politicos to permanent superstar status. They will find their moment. Lincoln was widely perceived to be an oafish idiot and often gravely doubted by his own supporters.
I cannot remember the exact stats but Lincoln was the most prolific trial lawyer in Illinois history -- everybody on his staff considered him a genius from what I have read.
If Bill Clinton knows about Peak Oil, I gaureentee Hilary knows too.
There's a difference between knowing about peak oil and really understanding it.
Very few people think oil is truly limitless. But most think it will be at most a minor inconvenience when it gets scarce. High prices, then we'll switch to ethanol or PHEVs or aircars. Or teleport, like on Star Trek!
Kind of just a tad bit unfair to simply group together those of us who back PHEVs, and next generation biofuels (not ethanol) with those who believe in aircars and teleporation. Best hopes for less unfair grouping of people.
If you really thought PHEVs were the answer, you wouldn't be hanging around here. You'd be at Green Car or something instead.
Actually I really do think that PHEVs along with Alan's electric rail are two possible answers. Are you suggesting everyone who writes on the oildrum deep down believes we are screwed and there is no chance of a brighter future? So writing on the TOD automatically makes you a doomer?
I would say most are deeply concerned - so deeply concerned you would consider them doomers.
Some are just trolls. They could post at WorldChanging or Green Car or similar sites instead, but that's no fun, because they really don't care about the issues. They just want to tick people off.
And some haven't decided yet. They're here to learn, and make up their minds. But they tend to not to post much.
Then why is the motto of TOD "Discussions about Energy and Our Future?" why not make it "Discussions about how we will life in a post carbon/low energy world"? I have seen featured post on TOD made by Chris Vernon specifically on PHEVs, and Alan Drake on EOT. If these are not issues to discuss as possible solutions to the energy crisis, why are they in featured post on TOD?!?!
Doesn't sound as good. But I think the majority of the staff, if not all of them, would agree that the future will be a low-energy world.
I don't think anyone, even Alan, sees them as solutions. They are "silver BBs" - maybe, possibly, partial solutions. Nowhere near a solution to the larger problem of peak oil and energy decline. (And sometimes, we do articles to debunk the idea. We've discussed Steorn here, too, but nobody with two neurons to rub together believes that's a solution.)
I found this in a newsletter giving advice to MLM organisers, aka confidence tricksters.
There are 3 categories of marks - I mean reader :)
1) Faithful supporters. They've bought the con, you can sell them anything. Ha, suckers!
2) Trouble makers. They are disgruntled marks you already ripped off, or are sent by competitors, and hang around causing trouble. Chase them off with threats.
3) Potential new marks. Needed to keep up the pyramid scheme. Welcome them, but if they don't become buyers quickly they are probably going to be in 2).
OH man Bob, I can't stop laughing at that one.
There's a big difference between believing society is completely doomed (which is what you seem to define as being a doomer) and believing that a future society will be sufficiently energy constrained that huge scale personal car (particularly the modern version where there's 90 percent of the time there's one driver in a hatchback car/SUV) transport will not be possible.
And you know what: the second option wouldn't to me be a "darker future". I can live perfectly happily without personal cars as long as there's medium-range goods transport (for things like food, manufactured goods like bicycles, hardware goods, etc) and large scale mass transport. Some of my family would have big problems because they've got jobs an hour/hour and a half commute from where they live and get in their cars (alone) to drive to work. Figuring out how to solve reorganise their lives will be a big problem, but when it's done I don't think they'd feel hugely deprived by not having a personal car.
Thinking we won't have a summer driving holidays in the future is entirely different from thinking everything is completely doomed.
My 2c worth. Unlike a lot of people who proudly proclaim that they vote for the 'person not the party' I vote for the party. There are lots of appointments, Supreme Court only being the tip of the iceberg, in the judicial branch, that the Pres. is responsible for. There are hundreds, if not thousands of executive orders and regulations controlled by the Pres. The overall tilt of the US govt. is led by both the majority congressional party as well as the executive branch. I can't think of any R candidate I'd vote for over any D candidate, regardless of the gag reflex with almost all of them.
OTOH, I agree with Leanan that the candidate that gets in now is going to face some real S**T in their administration. Maybe someone with steel balls (like Hillary ;)) would be good.
Then there is Douglas Adams line, "Anyone who desires to be president is ipso-facto disqualified."
I can't help but think this is not going to play out the way we think it will.
Gotta go park cars now... pain in all the diodes down my left side.
cfm at Milliways, Frogstar B
Agreed that presidents/Congress can't really turn around economic cycles, but at least a new president could start building the energy efficiency/rail transit/solar/wind economy that we are likely to eventually end up with. Whoever is president will likely face wrenching economic transitions, but the Dem's are at least a little closer to facing reality in terms of supporting transit, urban design, energy efficiency and renewables.
I expect oil prices to increase to whatever number is required to reduce the US oil consumption, since that is the largest global chunk of discretionary consumption. Whoever is president when that happens will have to preside over adaptation,voluntary or not.
I don't care anymore either.
The tail's wagging the dog. "Congratulations sir on your election to the highest office in the nation, we look forward to working with you. Now if you'll please follow us, we'll head over to the office of the invisible hand and discuss how you'll be running the show for the next 4 years."
Jeff
Leanan,
I feel the same about the recent Aussie elections, the winning Labor Party were set up to take the fall. Obviously GW's good mate John Howard had inside info & did not really try after 12 years in office (though i don't think he expected to lose his own seat in the lower house).
Also have you Yanks ever had a legit war, where you didn't lie, provoke, initiate, pre-empt etc. (and don't pretend Pearl Habour was a surprise)
Andrew
Not as excellent as Edwards/Richardson ...
I would definitely agree on that one. Or even Obama/Edwards would be acceptable. Edwards could engage the Gore role of pushing a passionate interest - in Edward’s case eliminating corporate malfeasance and influence.
Edwards might be the least objectionable on his side providing one believes what he says, hard to do when he comes across as having a couple of gallons of Red Bull before each debate.
I scribbled a bit about why Edwards will never be President ...
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/6/103716/1427/628/431599
Then you have to see that what the radicals here want isn't such a sure thing.
If no Edwards, and Walking Eagle being unelectable despite people already counting the taxpayer $$ they will put in their pockets to pretend to re float "Atlantis on the Gulf", I would wager a large amount of money that a black like Obama isn't electable, maybe a Colin Powell, but not Obama.
Can you see it? Vote for Hussein? It never happen, even though the candidates on the other side are incredibly weak and all have at least one major liability.
Kunstler likes Edwards. He thinks Edwards is the only one who can kick GM's butt.
I dunno. I know you shouldn't judge a book by its cover, but he doesn't look like he could kick anyone's butt, let alone GM's.
IMO it is still a two horse race, Obama and Edwards-they might end up teaming up. Hillary is finished-she doesn't have the likability of her husband and her lying skills are not inherent, they are forced. Edwards could sell ice to Eskimos.
As they might need it, thats a good skill to have..
Nate,as someone who has spent some time selling things, I can assure that if your customer REALLY needs it, it's not that hard to sell it to him. But I'd hate to be in the customer service dept when the shipment arrives melted...that's where your going to need the real people skills. ;-)
under the FWIW dept.
U.S. Sen. John Edwards at Bilderberg
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/june2004/060704edwardsatbilderberg.htm
http://www.oilempire.us/edwards.html
http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=2012
The clincher's gonna be Bohemian Grove. If he's ever been there, he's a Bush of a different color. Let's go all the way...watch for his secret Freemason signs and handshake. ;^] / :-| / :^[ / >^O
Jeff
i like Edwards for the same reasons - he has taken corporations to the woodshed for years and beaten the crap out of them time after time
he knows that cowboy posture like Bush/Cheney got us nowhere - he knows how to fight on the terrain you need to fight the corporate kleptocracy
I don't see how anyone on this site can support Edwards - he is not telling the truth about the energy situation. He blames the "insane gas prices" on the oil companies. Which, as most of us know here, is simply not true.
I'll support the candidate who tells us the truth about the real problems facing the country and the world, the "three E's", Economy, Energy, and Environment. I hear nothing of any substance from any of them.
SUNSPOT
I don't see how anyone on this site can support Edwards - he is not telling the truth about the energy situation. He blames the "insane gas prices" on the oil companies. Which, as most of us know here, is simply not true.
I'll support the candidate who tells us the truth about the real problems facing the country and the world, the "three E's", Economy, Energy, and Environment. I hear nothing of any substance from any of them.
All politicans lie. That's how they get elected.
Edwards talks about more hard issues than the others and he is going a better direction, IMHO. I think peak oil is one that they'll all wait on - we here know the reaction that comes in talking to friends and family - imagine doing that to a hundred million who voted, and only 60% of them voting for you. Yikes.
In the debate the other night it seemed like Richardson was aligning with Hillary (attacking Obama, for example) while Edwards was aligning with Obama (defending him). So Obama / Edwards?
Oh, I wouldn't count out the Republicans just yet. With a little help from a certain voting machine company, they may have a chance.
There may be some intellectual property violation going on here.
That kind of picture can land you in jail.
I think that the ACLU could mount an able defense based on political speech and the 1st Amendment.
Alan
parody is considered "fair use"
Has anyone other than John McCain come out against ethanol subsidies?
http://www.raceforoffice.com/2007/12/14/john-stossel-interviews-ron-paul...
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0108/Caucus_Day_Your_Ron_Pa...
Ron Paul is also against Ethanol subsidies,
McCain - I can understand due to the lack of corn in his state.
Dr. No - cuz, well, he's Dr. No.
Except. When Dr. No votes yes.
For the oil subsidies. He is from Texas.
Hey! All politics are local bay-bee!
No, you should make Edwards your VP candidate as assassination insurance. The counterparts of the people involved in the JFK assassination (CIA, fascist Cubans, psycho Texan billionaires) would consider populist Edwards very bad for business, if for no other crime than telling the American people that the rich are indeed waging class war against them.
Edwards is rich. He is a populist like Kennedy.
It's possible to be rich and fight on the side of the poor.
Could someone's eyeball count be down for the month so far and they need more hits?
That's a graph of Hillary's odds of becoming the Dem nominee, expressed as a percentage, from the betting site, Intrade.
Massive change over the last few days. This is big.
Twentieth Amendment. The Vice president elect becomes president.
"If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President." U.S. Constitution Amendment 20, item 3.
That's the danger of posting based on half-remembered comments. I think that William Safire had some kind of scenario that concerned him--perhaps the simultaneous death of both the president and vice-president elect, although there does seem some provision for Congress choosing the president in that case. Perhaps he thought the clause was much too vague. I tried to find a link, but couldn't.
and the great thing is that William Safire knows the folks that could make it happen
This is why the wise VP choice is to pick someone LESS tolerable to the opposition than the Pres. (or in our current situation, to pick a more tolerable Pres.)
I think Obama's wise choice would be Kucinich.
You're right. I forgot about Kucinich.
But then that was the problem with Kucinich, wasn't it?
The response to the death or disability of a president elect after the election but before inauguration day would be driven by a number of factors.
First if the president elect were to die before the electoral college were to meet then the voters while free to vote for whom ever they wished would most likely vote for the vice presidential candidate of the winning party, the vice presidential voters would also be free to vote for the candidate of their choice. Probably voting for a person chosen by the original vp candidate now president presumptive.
If however there was no consensus among the electors then the us house of reps would choose the president, and or the senate would choose the new vp as the vp is the titular head of that body.
Although the house would vote for the president, it would be by state not individual member, which means that Bernie Sanders of vt would have one vote as would the whole California delegation.
Any state that had a evenly split delegation and could not agree would not have a vote.
This scenario almost played out in each of the last two elections as a shift of less than 1% in two or three states would have tied the electoral college.
If the electoral college has already voted and the president elect dies then the vp would move up to the presidency and then nominate his or her replacement.
If the president elect were to be permanently disabled after the electors meet, but before being sworn in presumably the vp would then become president, as not having been sworn in the office is technically vacant, however the argument could be made that the vp would only be acting president.
If the president elect were to be permanently disabled before the electors were to meet and would be unable to perform his or her duties then the electoral college would be in a quandary, some state require their electors to vote for the winner of their election, while others do not. Some electors may vote for the vp and others may have to vote for the disabled presidential candidate or will do so out of loyalty, also the vice presidential electors would probably vote for the original vp candidate, so the vp would probably be elected and the choice of president could again end up with the house of representatives,
Bernie's in the Senate now. Peter Welch would have that vote...
If the electoral college hasn't met yet, then the electors pledged to the dead candidate may vote for someone else instead. Presumably the dead candidate's party would scramble to designate a replacement ticket.
If the electoral college has met, then the highest number of votes transmitted to congress would be for a dead candidate. Congress at that point would probably handle that the same way they would if there were no electoral college winner, following procedures that are explicitly detailed in the constitution. The house delegations would vote by state, with the majority of states deciding a winner (which could be anyone, even someone that had not been running), while the senate would select the VP.
There are only a few days between this point and the January 20th inaugural, but that is the window of time that really is interesting. You are right in that, during that window, there really are no constitutional provisions covering a president-elect's death. My guess is that the congress would just re-vote in that case, and the Supremes would probably support them in that.
January 20 - January 7 + 366 (Leap Year). Of course by noon January 20, 2009 GWB will belong to history (and the Int'l Court of Justice ?) but I decided not to count the hours just yet.
Best Hopes for Incompetence in all things till then (including provoking a war),
Alan
Bush Begins Preparations For Nation's Final Year
January 5, 2008
WASHINGTON—As his last term in office winds to a close, President Bush has directed White House aids and Cabinet staff to begin preparing for 2008, the nation's 232nd and final year in existence.
"Our great nation will be a shining, then blinking, then slowly fading beacon to the world," Bush said. "As our time as a sovereign country with borders and currency comes to a close, let us hope we will be remembered for all the great things we accomplished, and not for the 1960s."
"We sure did have some good times, didn't we?" Bush added.
To help the members of Congress pass the time until both houses are a jagged shell of concrete and marble, looted of valuables by roving bands of nomadic warlords to sell for spears and kerosene, Bush submitted to the Senate a short list of what he called "Dream Projects" to be carried out in the tenuous weeks following Dec. 9, 2008.
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/bush_begins_preparations_for
As long as potus is in the ME we're safe.
Suppose Cheney has him bumped off by an "Iranian" hit man? Just joking.
Don't joke. Al Qaeda released a video stating that they were ready for Bush's arrival and would be going for him with bombs and guns.
I predict an Iranian shaped charge IED will put an end to the life of one GWB and his long silver-foot in his mouth existence.
Talk about your Gulf of Tonkin incident.