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432 comments on The Fallacy of Reversibility
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GAIA Host Collective
The ELP Plan: Economize; Localize & Produce
IMO, we are headed for the never ending boom/crisis in the food and energy sectors. Whether it is a boom or a crisis for a specific person is largely dependent on whether or not you are involved in something related to food and/or energy production.
Regarding the Electrification Of Transportation (EOT) movement, it’s interesting to compare total energy consumption in the EU versus US (the EU uses about half as much energy per person as the US). Of course, this is also related to their high energy consumption taxes. However, I suspect that very few people would now argue that the US system is superior. The other question is whether we can go back to what we once had and what the EU now has, regarding EOT. As Alan Drake has pointed out, we did it before in the US, with minimal fossil fuel input.
Regarding the larger topic of farming, it seems to me that the obvious comparison is the small Amish farm versus industrialized farming. My recollection is that the yield per acre on Amish farms is lower than industrialized farms, but the profit per acre is higher.
http://www.landinstitute.org/vnews/display.v/ART/2000/12/15/3df6412ab088c
An economic comparison of traditional and conventional agricultural systems at a county level
M.H. Bender
Accepted December 15, 2000
Thanks for this lead Jeffrey. One of my concerns has been the reliability of a lot of common statistics gathered by the government. It is very difficult to find comparison data on different scales and methods of production because alternatives to the industrial ag model are relatively scarce in the U.S. and those who pursue them do so in a kind of parallel universe with their own norms of communication. I simply don't know if they are even on the radar screen when looking at USDA census data.
Jason,
One book you might get ahold of is Traditional American Farming Techniques, ISBN 1-58574-412-3, Lynons Press. It's a reprint of a 1919 (IIRC) farm book, 1086 pages. I highly recommend it. It has a lot of good information on "farming" including such things as horse "efficiency." Essentially, there are certain sized farms that use horses more efficiently. If you get up my way, I'd be glad to loan it to you. I'm in the phone book.
Todd
PS The Garden Club is still screwing around in setting up a Terra Preta presentation.
Todd, you recommended the book a week or so ago and I purchased it online from Deepdiscount. It is amazing the breadth of knowledge agriculturalists had at that time, especially in regards to soil management and cover crops such as alfalfa and clover. For someone like me who has a small farmette, it will be very useful. I’ve been browsing through it for the last week.
I too ordered it a few weeks back when Todd recommended it. Its a thick bugger and I've had trouble keeping it out of my fathers mitts. Much of it over my head, but I guess thats the point of ordering it.
I just ordered it also. Thanks for the tip.
Stuart is probably correct about the continuing growth of industrial agriculture. The merging of the energy markets with the food markets means that the price of both shall move upwards in lockstep. Both our engines and our bellies will face progressive starvation.
This is even now being played out in the third world. Their farms are industrializing and growing food, fiber and energy for export, leaving the billions living on less than $5 a day to be priced out, with little chance of gaining access to cultivable land.
There are several questions: will those hundreds of millions quietly starve? At what point will there be revolution? What form will that revolution take; nihilism and suicide vests? retro Maoism?
I suspect that, at least in the first world, massive bankruptcy, combined with massive foreclosures and rising food and energy prices, will force democracies to turn to increased redistributionist policies, protectionism, and possibly fascism.
I could be mistaken but I think that revolutions are started by the middle class with input from guilt ridden or disaffected uppers. The poor pick up the torch a bit later as they are more likely concerned with finding the next meal.
I believe you are right.
Actually, revolutions are often started by first world elements within third world countries (Lenin & Mao, Pol Pot, and Sindero Luminoso in Peru; western educated/influenced leaders leading largely uneducated workers and peasants). But revolutions can also be started by reactionary third world leaders like Ayatollah Khomanei.
As Stuart's analysis sinks in, I realize this is the worst news I've heard in a long time.
Agribusiness -- a product of the "age of oil", -- has been primarily concerned with producing food and fiber. It dominates the best soils in the world, and is still in the process of displacing traditional farmers.
If the food markets hadn't merged with the energy markets, we would expect that we would now be experiencing "peak agriculture" along with "peak food". This (hopefully) gentle decline would give societies time to convert to whatever replaces agribusiness.
Instead, agribusiness is switching to producing motor fuels, so "Peak Agriculture" is now divorced from "peak food."
As agribusiness increasingly grows biofuels for our vehicles, it profits even as it diverts land and energy away from feeding people. Thus, peak agriculture is a long way in the future, while peak food is now, with a vengeance.
Furthermore, as we look at Hubbert's curve as it descends into the Oldavai Gorge, we are right to wonder at what point industrial agriculture no longer functions properly.
Can steel for tractors and combines be smelted using renewable energy? Can fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides compete with ethanol and biodiesel? If they cannot, then it is difficult to see industrial agriculture surviving beyond mid-century. And if it continues to grow up to the end, we may see a spectacular crash.
Meanwhile, of course, we can project that global famine is coming on like a freight train.
I've got serious doubts as to whether we'll see the current corn-based industrial agriculture continue as far as midcentury in much of the US. Many areas depend on nonrenewable aquifers for their irrigation, and have only a 20-25 supply of water remaining. We're going to run out of water long before fossil fuel limitations seriously constrain American agriculture.
Depending on how we use the last few years worth of it, we will either transition to some sort of available-rainfall based agriculture in much of the midwest, or experience another dustbowl.
..or you could charge properly for water, and use some of the many conservation techniques available, such as are common practise in Israel, for example.
Conservation would slow the depletion rate, but not solve the problem that we're trying to irrigate with a nonrenewable source of water. Even if we launch a massive conservation effort next year (which realistically, isn't going to happen) we will likely see exhaustion of several major aquifers within my lifetime.
We can smelt metals with nuclear, wind, solar, geothermal power.
Whether this trend is bad news for you personally depends on your income level. With a high enough income you'll be able to buy more expensive food and put more expensive biodiesel in your gas tank.
But is competition for agricultural product between food and biofuels really the worst possibility here? Seems to me not. What would be far worse is if agriculture has a very low EROEI. Take away the oil and we have a hard time running agriculture if that is the case.
By contrast, with a high EROEI from agriculture while part of the agriculture will get shifted to producing energy at least the remaining part that produces food has energy from its own fields to power it. I find that comforting. I just have to earn enough money to afford to buy the resulting product.
So you and me and 100 million others can afford food on the table. The other 6.4 billion (plus interest) can all go to hell.
I wonder if those "others" will let me enjoy my meals in peace....
Yes, at least on a small scale. CSP arrays can produce a lot of heat, or a large WT array could produce a lot of electricity for an electric furnace; maybe both could be combined. It might be possible (indeed, we DO have to figure out how to MAKE it possible) to set up sufficient capacity to recycle metals from old worn out equipment in order to make new equipment.
If we can't manage this, then sooner or later we will fall all the way back in the neolithic.
Hi Todd,
Just ordered it. Thanks! As a newbie to farming I appreciate good leads.
I don't have any idea what your last name is, but know another farmer around here who wants to talk to you. Would love to go to a Terra Preta presentation so please let it be known in Willits when it is happening.
You do know my first and last name and I am in the book too...or contact the WELL office to get a message to me.
Jason, I think this is a very good point. And we are that particular case in point. We just purchased 13 acres of "black dirt" muck soils 60 miles from New York City. This is soil that is only allowed for farming and not development because of its particular geological formation and lack of suitability for a septic system.
Most farms are large enough, 75 acres and up, to qualify for government support and protection and therefore must "register" with the USDA. Because we are so small, we don't qualify for the government programs and are therefore "unregistered."
I know of several other farms who are in the same category. One is owned by a man from Bangladesh who farms 15 acres planting just two crops of which he saves his own seeds. He sells his produce on the street in Queens. In the winter he farms in Florida and ships his produce to New York. He is definitely not on the USDA radar screen. Another is a couple who grows 3 acres of vegetables and herbs in their backyard and sells via a farm stand by their house and a 25-member CSA -- also "unregistered."
Many of the farms who are traditional "onion" farmers (25% of US onions are grown here in Orange County, NY) are now diversifying into vegetables and selling via Farmer's Markets, farm stands and CSA because they can make more money on fewer acres in a more satisfying way.
This is interesting. I just started a new, very little farm, and know that my little operation is off the radar for USDA and suspected it might be the case for others.
You can register via the ag census, which is due soon:
http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Help/Report_Form_&_Instructions/2007_Report...
Farms that get government assistance or have submitted this in the past automatically receive a form in the mail. Otherwise, you have to know about it. And as you say, small farms might not be eligible for the subsidies and so aren't in the loop.
Hello westexas,
A good friend of mine sells seed in extreme Southeast MN. Lots of Amish there.
This year they are RENTING OUT THERE FARMS.
Higher grain prices mean HIGH cash rent.
The Amish can currently make more money renting out their land to a real farmer than they can by farming it themself.
As profits on the farm rise with Peak Oil, the efficient operators will BID HARDER than ever for land. Inefficient operators (Amish) will increasingly rent their land to them.
The Amish of SE MN switched to making furniture.
Hi there Farmer, I rent out my money so I can do the things I feel are valuable to do, painting, music, gardening. That doesn't mean that I wouldn't make more money using it myself, it just means I value things other than money. Maybe the Amish just prefer to do more cabinetry which as far as I know is not something they just 'switched' to.
It really is sad to see what we have done to this world in the name of efficiency and greed rather than what we could have done in joy.
My apologies for moving upthread...
Stuart, as always, very impressive stuff. If you will remember "The Tragedy of the Commons", in capitalist societies land, over time, usually winds up in the hands a few families and due to our tradition (from English common law) of marriage and inheritance tends to stay there. Hence, property taxes were conceived of as a vehicle to force turnover of unused and unproductive land. Rising food and agricultural prices would certainly benefit those already entrenched in the endeavor. However, if food prices continued to rise in excess of the local GDP and inflation rate the price would eventually reach a point of no return, impossible to afford. Of course, this cannot happen in rational and free markets. If wheat and/or corn rose to $50, $75,$100 per bushel and animal flesh rose to $50 per lbs, the consumer would react. Front lawns and back yards would cease to exist, crop production would occur, co-ops would be formed, and entrepreneurship would flourish, much to the chagrin of the "second wave' folks, Kuntsler, et al.
The "consumer" would also react in other ways. They would be thinner. They would have fewer children. During this time the world would continue to slip further down the backside of bell chart. During the Great Depression we had no shortage of Farmland, oil, or labor, and we had far less than half of today's mouths to feed. Yet food was prohibitively expensive.
The "Second Wavers" for the most part are not only lacking in any economic training, they are colored politically, and seem to see things through the shaded lens of their politics. But I would not count on Industrial Ag to continue to provide incredibly cheap food - and therein lies the rub. To ever more expensive food prices, what will the social, economic, and political reaction be? Political science is not my strong suit, but it would seem that THAT is the devil in THIS detail.
Er, I thought this was exactly what the second wave folks were predicting? A mass movement back toward producing our own food? This is exactly what happened in Cuba, although there situation is different than what is likely to happen in peak oil: Cuba had an instant dropoff in fossil fuels, while the during peak oil we can expect a slow decline.
When we had minimal fossil fuels we had a much smaller population. We need high yield farms to feed a much larger population.
If large scale mechanized agriculture does not have a high EROEI then we are going to get awfully hungry. My hope is that the EROEI of farms is already high enough or will rise fast enough due to technological advances that large scale mechanized agriculture will survive. I think every rational person should hope for this.