The Oil Drum

Here's a perverse idea:

As we know, there is good evidence that the energetic gain on biofuels from food crops is rather crappy. And they affect world food supply.

But maybe there is a silver lining. i.e. The biofuels effort is bringing closer to the present the day of reckoning, but at the same time supplying a cushion. The high prices send a signal around the world and presumably ring everybody's bell. Obviously, the 'cushion' is logistically not nearly as good as grain supplies for a number of reasons. But it would seem not completely crazy to think that biofuel production could fairly rapidly cease without massive economic damage because it doesn't contribute that much anyway.

These price signals are very important. If the world is near the brink, it's better it knows before the real brink appears.

It's not something the Oil Drum would necessarily like to crow to the media about, but I think it likely that the site did the world a huge favour in contributing to the rise in distant future oil contracts. If hedge funds made money on Stuart's advice research then there's a good chance the price was affected.

Greenspan who has always watched distant future oil very closely recently said in the WSJ that "oil is going to peak earlier and lower than previously expected".

Shows how uncovering the facts can give you an audience with the powerful (indirectly). Perhaps Stuart rang Greenspan's bell.