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253 comments on DrumBeat: January 20, 2008

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westexas on January 20, 2008 - 12:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Except that it is forward looking. It's analogous to the standard Reserve to Production Ratio.

Back to the ELM:

Production at peak: 2.0 mbpd
Consumption at peak: 1.0 mbpd

Remaining recoverable reserves at peak: 17 Gb
Remaining cumulative net exports at peak: 1.7 Gb

R/P = 17 Gb divided by 0.73Gb/year = 23 years

EP/E = 1.7 Gb divided by 0.365 Gb/year = 4.7 years

Because of declining net exports, ELM hit zero net exports in 9 years.

The top five (middle case) export numbes are as follows:

EP/E = 100 Gb divided 8.4 Gb/year = 12 years

Our middle case shows the top five approaching zero net exports in 26 years (from the 2005 peak).

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xeroid on January 20, 2008 - 1:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

So, as a mid-case would it be reasonable to expect total world net exports to be reduced by ~50% by 2020 (in 12 years) - that's ~5% a year decline rate (from 46 mbpd in 2005 to 23 mbpd in 2020.)

By 2020 I am expecting world population to be around 7.6 billion, up from 6.6 billion today, a 15% increase overall - not sure yet what percentage it will be for net importer countries.

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westexas on January 20, 2008 - 1:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Sounds reasonable, but a key point to keep in mind is that the year to year net export decline rate starts out slowly, and accelerates with time, but once the decline kicks in, the volumetric decline rate tends to be approximately linear, i.e., close to a fixed rate per year.

So, if the overall world net export decline really kicked in, in 2007, one might expect the decline to be on the order of 1.5 mbpd per year. The 2006 and 2007 data suggest that the top five are dropping at about one mbpd per year in 2006 and 2007.

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253 comments on DrumBeat: January 20, 2008

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