<The Air Car Part 2 - Q & A With Louis Arnoux of IT-MDI The Oil Drum 2007: record year for US wind industry>
<DrumBeat: January 19, 2008 DrumBeat DrumBeat: January 21, 2008>

253 comments on DrumBeat: January 20, 2008

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Show without comments | PDF version

xeroid on January 20, 2008 - 1:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

So, as a mid-case would it be reasonable to expect total world net exports to be reduced by ~50% by 2020 (in 12 years) - that's ~5% a year decline rate (from 46 mbpd in 2005 to 23 mbpd in 2020.)

By 2020 I am expecting world population to be around 7.6 billion, up from 6.6 billion today, a 15% increase overall - not sure yet what percentage it will be for net importer countries.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
westexas on January 20, 2008 - 1:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Sounds reasonable, but a key point to keep in mind is that the year to year net export decline rate starts out slowly, and accelerates with time, but once the decline kicks in, the volumetric decline rate tends to be approximately linear, i.e., close to a fixed rate per year.

So, if the overall world net export decline really kicked in, in 2007, one might expect the decline to be on the order of 1.5 mbpd per year. The 2006 and 2007 data suggest that the top five are dropping at about one mbpd per year in 2006 and 2007.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

253 comments on DrumBeat: January 20, 2008

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Show without comments | PDF version