<DrumBeat: January 27, 2008The Oil DrumCSIRO Future Fuels Forum>

64 comments on US Petroleum Supply, Ethanol, and State of the Industry - API

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mdsolar on January 26, 2008 - 6:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The description, as I understand it, is that it is continuous so the oil does not pool up anywhere, it just fills the middle member. I think that the geology has been mapped so that it is more interpolation than extrapolation. Perhaps we won't know how much can be recovered until it is all recovered. The USGS is unwilling to publish the study it had done though you can read in on the web: http://www.undeerc.org/Price/

Chris

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westexas on January 26, 2008 - 6:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Okay, let me try one more time. From the excerpt above:

The shales are highly organic, thermally mature and overpressured and act as both a source and reservoir for the oil.

The middle member is not continuously productive across a widespread area--that is what locally productive means.

The shale members are continuously productive across a wide area.

The key question is whether the shales are commercially productive across a widespread area.

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Gail the Actuary on January 26, 2008 - 7:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think the Bakken formation would be an interesting topic for a TOD post or a guest post.

On the natural gas side, unconventional production has done very well, and has prevented a steep decline in natural gas production. We can't expect as much on oil, but every little bit helps.

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mdsolar on January 26, 2008 - 10:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think I see where we are missing each other. My meaning is that it is spatially continuous. There are no places that it drains to, it is just one wide layer or trap. Your meaning is that the oil is located where it formed (or nearly so). My picture is probably too simplistic, as some areas will have more oil than others and those will be the commercial portions. This model is a little above my head but it might help you get a feel for what people are thinking: http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/2006/06035flannery/index.htm
Again, what is interesting to me is that there seems to be something to be remarked on in the aggregate production numbers from the conference call. Perhaps this is a slow motion discovery that is significant. I'm paying attention because I'm trying to figure out how much carbon dioxide needs to be cleaned up. An extra 20 years of US oil consumption could be a problem.

Chris

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The Dude on January 27, 2008 - 11:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

From peakoil.com: Finally, the Bakken makes the national media (NY Times). Lots of links there. Peak oil: Do you want it to occur? detoured into Bakken territory as well.

Also would love to see a TOD piece on this. API of 41 they say.

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