I think an important point to bear in mind is what al Huseini said last October: KSA can maintain 12.5 indefinitely, but going above that will eat into stability of the fields.

I believe him. This is an example of "data" that really is nothing more than belief or trust, but I can think of no reason for Huseini to be lying or blowing smoke. For the reasons stated in above posts, I think they have fields being held backa nd they have areas of existing fields to exploit yet. I expect steady production from the KSA well past 2020. I don't expect any more than 12.5 at any time, except under duress, which may well happen.

Cheers

EDIT: Caveat from further down the thread: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3534#comment-294844

al Huseini was perhaps no longer at ARAMCO when the info on the increased water was learned. However, given he still has contacts, this may not change his prediction at all.