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Robert,
Given the 4.5% -8% decline rate (depending on who you believe). That implies that we need to find 6-8mb/day of new production. The wiki oil mega project shows that we can add 6mb/day in 2008 and 2009. Do you think we can make those numbers? I think the ramp up time was not factored into the megaprojects data.
I am sure the ramp up is not factored into the numbers. I understand from Ace that the majority of the 2008 projects are scheduled to come on in the latter half of 2008. Production will ramp up over varying periods (months to years) for each of these projects.
As far as I know, we don't have any information about what kind of track record these estimates have for accuracy either. While these are the hoped for amounts, we don't know whether actual production will ever match the forecast amounts - or exceed them.
seems like a logistic or some kind of exp. curve would be better than a step function.