If one reads that quoted line carefully, one will notice that he is referring to combined oil and gas production. It may well be that oil production won't be able to "keep up with demand" at a much sooner date (if that date hasn't already passed). And, there's no mention of the export problem which you have so clearly shown to be important in many posts.

From an economic point of view, demand can never exceed supply over time. The "market" will respond with increasing prices for the commodity in shortfall, until demand and supply will balance. Of course, that is theory and surely leaves some folks out in the cold who would like their demand satisfied. If one thinks a bit further about this statement, when supply can no longer "keep up" with demand, that implies a rather large increase in price, limited only by the cost of the available alternatives, including FF sources that are difficult to obtain. Since the cost of the alternatives tends to increase along with the market price of energy, it's likely that we will be due for some rather large increases in energy costs, as well as major disruptions of all sorts. I think the many reports we are presently seeing about global energy shortages is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. None of this is new to those of us who frequent TOD.

Keep moving, keep growing, nothing to see here, no need to PANIC, Everything's Under Control.

E. Swanson

The only way I can read "scramble," or the "mountainous desert race" is as a euphemism for resource wars. That has been the way that mankind has traditionally resolved the allocation of scarce and vital resources. "Excitement" and "fierce competition" sound an awful lot like "Saving Private Ryan" or "The Thin Red Line." At least there is some acknowledgement in the industry that the alternatives to cooperation is the Great War for Oil.

Resource wars? Aren't those situations where one nation invades and conquers another nation with known resources? Sort of like Saddam in Kuwait? Sort of like Japan attacking Pearl Harbor as a prelude to the march toward Indonesia's oil fields? Like Hitler invading the Balkens to get the oil fields, then attacking Russia for the same reason. Looks to me like war's not the alternative, it's been the plan for a long time.

As for "Excitement" and "fierce competition", think of the after effects of a bunch of nuclear blasts delivered to select Third World Mega cities. It would give a whole new meaning to the "Survivor" programs, with camera crews dressed in lead suits catching every round of the tooth and claw fight for survival. There's more than one way for "Demand Destruction" to occur.

Of course, our conquest of Iran had absolutely nothing (Bush Co. said), NOTHING, to do with oil, got that? :<(

E. Swanson

Like the US in Iraq - Noticed you missed that one - How could you miss the obvious?

Woops! A typo in the last line, should have been Iraq, not Iran.

I thought you were reporting from the future so I figured Iran was what you actually meant.

I thought he was talking about 1952, when the US and GB overthrew a democratic government in Iran and replaced it with a dictatorship, so their oil companies could regain control of Iran's oil supplies. Isn't it interesting how the US and British press never mention this when discussing the current frictions?

Resource wars for the last of a resource considered vital (which will appreciate, year on year, with certainty) are an entirely different level of conflict than speculative wars over future profit.

It's the difference between "If we succeed, we could become rich" and "If we fail, we are certain to starve." The latter has all the power of the status quo behind it.

From an economic point of view, demand can never exceed supply over time.

So, from an economic point of view, there is only demand for 75,000 Super Bowl tickets since that how many are available.

Which proves I still can't get my mind around economics.

In the super bowl case, the elasticity of supply is zero. That doesn't occur too often in the real world.

That's because sports teams are deeply ingrained in our culture as well as our tax system (and exempted from monopoly restrictions), and there are substantial auxiliary profits to be had in allowing fans to see the occasional game.

Even though the supply elasticity is zero, that wouldn't itself invalidate the laws of supply and demand. The owners would have an incentive to maximize their profit by jacking the prices up until they have slightly less than 75000 tickets.

But they allow things like waiting lists and lotteries for tickets instead (and punish scalpers), because those represent commitments to keep watching the game (which costs them nothing), keep voting to build new stadiums on taxpayer dollars, keep buying Packers jerseys and hats, keep trying to get seats at the nearly empty certain-loss games in midseason with nothing on the line, and in general support the team until your death. If the stadium seats for the Superbowl were strictly a narrow for-profit operation, they would be auctioned in order to maximize profit, essentially.

From an economic point of view, demand perfectly balances supply... as long as price is free to fluctuate.

If price is fixed too low then demand can easily exceed supply.... at the too low price.

If price is fixed too high then demand can easily be lower than supply ... at the too high price.

Well "demand" doesn't just mean "want" or "desire".
Demand is the want or desire to possess a good or service with the necessary goods, services, or financial instruments necessary to make a legal transaction for those goods or services.

Except that governments won't allow the market to go out of control with prices like that. Pricing regulation and rationing will be introduced, you'll get your certificate each month that will permit you to buy a certain amount of oil..... This is what governments do in economic disasters and war time, infact some governments have had to do that to keep a war economy functioning. Governments will want to ensure that oil remains affordable.