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124 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - January 2008

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WebHubbleTelescope on January 30, 2008 - 7:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think that's what we're seeing now. On the conventional crude side, former shut in capacity is opened as the high price makes it economical again. Furthermore, previously unconventional crude such as heavy oil is being added to the mix as the world demands for any oil of any kind. So in conventional crude, the decline is mitigated by innovation in pursuit of profit.

Give me an estimate of the amount of shut in oil to current reserves that would become available if price, say, doubled. This is easy to add to any model to figure out the change it will make to the production profiles. I contend that if it is small in comparison to the reserve growth that already occurs, that it won't make much of a difference.

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Robert Marston on January 30, 2008 - 9:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I agree that it probably won't make a huge difference and that it probably is at the margin when compared to reserve growth. If, for example, in the US it is something on the order of +15,000 - 30,000 bpd per year all it does is bite into the decline rate. But if you slow the decline rate on aggregate across the world it provides more opportunity for unconventional + biofuels to make up the difference. By itself, it is small. When considered on aggregate it contributes. That's all I'm saying.

For my part, I agree that we've likely hit the plateau/peak in conventional oil. So my analysis is based on the viability of new fuels/efficiencies.

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