87 comments on The Tata Nano Strikes Back--Does Jevons' Paradox Apply to Productivity, Too?
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87 comments on The Tata Nano Strikes Back--Does Jevons' Paradox Apply to Productivity, Too?
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Most assuredly Jevons' Paradox can apply to PO, though it is more complicated than pre-PO. A Hirschian crash effort to reduce consumption by governments, industry, and citizens might (if hypothetically started in time) result in lower prices if demand were to be reduced below supply levels. All it would take to spoil the party would be some percentage of the population (or 1 or 2 rogue nations) to buck the trend (cavorting in oil-soaked consumption over-indulgence like most developed nations are now) to weaken the resolve of those choosing the higher path.
However, continued growth will likely be challenged in the near term by the subprime fiasco, perhaps moderating oil demand to mask the effects of PO on oil prices. Then PO critics will say, "See, peak oil nuts were all wrong; oil didn't hit $200 by 2010, it's only at $165! There's no problem with supply, it's 'above ground' difficulties..." So the Jevons aspect may be conflated with predominantly unrelated economic turmoil.
Our future lies with better land use planning, more use of mass transit, working from home, biking, etc. I'm convinced, however, that most citizens will not climb out of their cars until they are forced to, per Nate's two articles on human addiction tendencies.
For those who are ensconced in outer suburbia away from mass transit, there are a number of options to driving Nanos or other standard automobiles (though prices are diverse); of course, many suburbanites would recoil at the thought of transporting themselves or their families in something 'less' than they have now;
Electric-assist Bike, -----------------------------------Family powered quadcycle

Electric-assist velomobile (enclosed recumbent trike), ---------------------------Electric Motorcycle
Myers NmG enclosed electric motorcycle (currently fairly expensive)
VentureOne electric or hybrid enclosed motorcycle (coming soon)

Years ago, I built a shell around a small motorcycle, trying to achieve high MPG. The first time I took it on the road, I almost wrecked it as it tended to "fish tail" as speed increased. The aerodynamics were such that it was unstable, that is, it tended to deviate away from motion in a straight line as speeds increase. My solution was to add a vertical tail, which made the thing hard to handle in cross winds or when passing or being passed by trucks. Dump trucks were especially difficult to deal with.
I think it's important to point out that the VentureOne machine is likely to be a very dangerous machine to operate. This is the result of having the center of mass located toward the rear, while having a rather large area exposed to aerodynamic forces ahead of the center or mass. The result would likely be loss of control at high speeds due to cross winds, just as I experienced with my machine. The graphic sure looks cool, though.
The Myers NmG might be a little better, if the batteries are located ahead of the front wheels. They claim a speed of 75 oh for the Myers, so I assume that they have already tested these to find out whether they are stable or not.
E. Swanson
Take a look at these prototype VentureOne videos where the bike is being tested by Top Gear and the like; I believe your concerns will be addressed.
I use to ride motorcycles too and I agree, the 'Venture' would be dangerous. If someone owned a place out on the California coast near Bodega Bay, the road north from there would be perfect for that little roadster. But for any other roads, even beyond aerodynamics, my concern would be other vehicles not seeing me. When I use to ride a regular 2 wheel motorcycle I found one had to ride very defensively because other people simply do not see bikes as well as other cars. Now with all these huge SUV's the problem is compounded even more. A nice idea, but too impractical due to safey issues.
See the videos mentioned in the previous post, especially where the prototypes are driven through busy traffic. If we gauge every mitigation by how it will compare against large SUVs, we end up in a situation where we always revert back to a larger vehicle than would have been helpful. Your argument could be used to discourage even bike commuting, for example, so the fallacy of SUVs always being safer falls flat when we hit the downslope of PO.
I was told my tiny Honda Insight would be crushed by large SUVs the first year (and I live in an area with LOTS of them), but I'm in my 8th year with it with nary a scratch (granted, I've vanpooled alot when not zipping around on consulting engagements). As gas prices go higher, or as the recession deepens, we'll be seeing lighter traffic anyway.
Go watch "The World's Fastest Indian".
Putting a shell on your motorcycle is not a good idea unless you really know what you are doing.
However, those 2 vehicles looked like tricycles to me.
And then there are those efforts to create two wheel enclosed motorcycles with retractable landing gear, from the Monotrace Cabriolet of 1925

to the "ecomobile"...

http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0501/30/autos-73731.htm
... with a number of variants in between.
I always liked the idea of a retractable wheel motorcycle, although frankly I'd be terrified to drive one.
The Eco-Mobile is interesting, but at 1200cc and $80,000, it's a bit of an overkill.
oh, I agree... it's absurd. (But cool!)
And that Montrace Cabriolet was an excellent find.
I have not been to India for seven years but I don't things have changed all that much. I had the sense that the most obnoxious pollution was coming from two stroke vehicles, two and three wheeled motorcycles, particularly in extremely congested cities like Mumbia and Pune. When I was told I should leave my hotel in Mumbia a good six to eight hours before my flight from the Mumbia airport I thought it was a joke, but it wasn't. I was glad I did. I could have walked the ten to fifteen miles faster. The traffic is completely insane. Anyway, to replace two-stroke vehicles with four-stoke vehicles would be a big improvement in terms of air quality and its difficult to calculate effect on gas milage. Replacing a 80 mpg two stroke motorcycle with a 50 mpg four stroke car is not necessarily a 37.5% reduction in energy efficiency and a 60% increase in fuel consumption. Once vehicles are stuck in traffic, efficiency goes way down, especially for overlaiden motorcycles. Also pollution goes way up, especially for slow moving motorcycles. Furthermore if a car carrying four people replaces two motorcyles carrying two people each then the car may have better gas milage and reduce pollution over the two motorcyles. If you are out in the country driving on the highway as an individual okay the milage is better but the pollution factor still is not. And driving solo without carrying a bunch of stuff is not the Indian way.
Check out this report, in particular the table on page 33.
www.theicct.org/documents/Meszler_2&3Wheelers_2007.pdf
This issue is very complex and I just not convenced that the Nano is all bad if it is replacing a swarm of old, poorly maintained, cheap oil filled, two stroke smoke pots.