87 comments on The Tata Nano Strikes Back--Does Jevons' Paradox Apply to Productivity, Too?
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87 comments on The Tata Nano Strikes Back--Does Jevons' Paradox Apply to Productivity, Too?
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Just FYI, Jeff, I think you are confusing the spelling of W.S. Jevon's name with John Jeavons of Biointensive Gardening Fame.
It strikes me that we need an alternative to middle class aspirations. What that would be is another issue altogether, but despite the tendency of many commentators to dismiss this possibility as impossible, the only hope seems to me to change the culture of aspiration - to show, for example, a billion rich world people aspiring to lower their standard of living.
Let's get right on figuring out how that would happen ;-).
Sharon
"Standard of living" can be a relative term that focuses primarily on goods and income; shifting the discussion to include leisure, safety, cultural resources, social life, mental health, environmental quality issues and other 'quality of life' measures can help to realign the discussion and enable the refocusing of the goals people set for themselves and their communities.
It absolutely can - but it isn't an easy reset. That is, most of the socio-cultural benefits you achieve work best if everyone in a given society is doing the same thing. So we have to lower economic standards of living with the promise of other returns later on (there are exceptions, but in general, for example, these changes work best on a societal level).
Again, I think we can do it - but while I think an articulation of quality of life benefits is important and useful, we should pretend that there's no cost involved to the people we're talking about. The simple truth, however, is that we don't have a choice.
Sharon
Go deflation!
Someone had put it as shifting from a consumption-based lifestyle to an experience-based lifestyle. Collecting good memories rather than things.
I think this is the crux of the problem. The solution seems to start with recognizing that we tend to substitute the material for want of the experiential in life. The only purpose of material goods it to achieve an experience, but often (though, admittedly, not always) that experience can be achieved with out the material, or at least doesn't require the kind of material consumption suggested by advertising. I've written about this in "Magazine Simplicity."
I don't think it's unrealistic to shift our focus from being rich because we consumer more to being rich because of the quality of our experience--it just requires a different design focus. I do, however, think it's unrealistic to think that "society" or "government" will make this change for us--we must do it for ourselves individually. The more that individuals set examples of how this is A) preferable and B) implementable, the more chance it has to spread from the ground up. I think what is needed is less a culture of "rich people trying to lower their standard of living" than rich people redefining what they consider "standard of living"--more focus on doing more with less, on the experiential, on a notion of elegance that prefers to see how much can be done with little (even social competition on that point).
Agreed. And there are organizations moving in this direction, such as New American Dream, among others (can other people provide more organization links?)
Sometimes it means taking a little longer getting somewhere, or being a little colder first thing in the morning during the winter, or warmer in the summer. If we compare how our grandparents grew up versus our lifestyle, we could recognize that there is much we can do without and still retain an equivalent (or even greater) quality of life. Both sets of my grandparents were farmers during the Great Depression, so my parents lived through some of the hardest of times, yet have endless fond memories of growing up without regard for their penniless state.
So when I'm huffing my way up the side of a ridge on a late summer's day, the heat is not the most pleasant sensation, but the physical exertion and the fresh air are remarkably mind-clearing and stress-reducing, so the benefits clearly outweigh the 'costs'. And when the dinner table is set with produce right from the garden, the understanding of where things come from brings understanding not only to our children, but to visiting friends as well.
So setting examples (as well as educating others on the impacts of resource limitations and climate disruptions) certainly is the most effective means of 'walking the talk', and doing so in a positive manner carries the greatest chance of being effective (as opposed to railing on people for driving SUVs, etc). One of my favorite examples is seeing a cyclist during rush hour with a "One Less Car" jacket on, which reminds the observer of several benefits of bike commuting in a non-indicting manner.
This subject would make for a intriguing TOD article, especially as a follow-on to Nate's addiction articles...
This rejection of goverment makes no sense. Government and human society are inseparable. Even hunter-gatherer bands and neolithic villages had government. Not in the sense of elected officials, written codes of law, etc., but in the sense of a set of conventions that governed social and economic relations between the constituent members of society. The higher the degree of specialization of labor the more complicated such conventions have to be.
If you have a preference for greater material simplicity and less centralization that is all well and good. It may well be that the current national goverments will be largely ineffective instruments for bringing about a new social order. But if you believe that some new vision of what constitutes the 'good life' can be effectively implemented without rolling up our sleeves and doing the hard political work of creating the appropiate set of conventions and institutions which will support that vision, then you should find a new substance to put into your pipe.
Your comment seems rather incoherent--I hardly know where to start:
1. Are you suggesting that my statement that "it's unrealistic to think that 'society' or 'government' will make this change for us" is a statement that "government makes no sense"? I don't think that's what I said--I think my words were pretty clear--I said that government won't do it for us. Not that we can't do it through government--the need for individual responsibility seems pretty clearly expressed in my words to me.
2. Our words seem to actually agree, not disagree. You suggest that I think we can achieve the good life "without rolling up our sleeves," when my actual words said the exact opposite--that *WE*, as individuals, must do the sleeve rolling, and not merely expect it from others (the government).
3. If what you're actually suggesting (because this is the only way I can understand your apparent disagreement with me) is that "appropriate" conventions and institutions must be hierarchal, then your anthropology is way off, and I think you're falling into the classic definition of insanity: that somehow, this time, doing the same thing won't have the same results. If this isn't what you're suggesting, then I have no Idea what you're talking about...
Let us suppose that you and I and a small group of people living relatively close together have all decided to live materially simpler lifestyles and to provide for our needs from local resources. If there is any degree of specialization of labor whatsoever then we will collectively need to make decisions about how to share the outputs of our labor. This decision making process is, by my definition, a form of government. Where in this illustration to you see a suggestion that I favor the creation of hierarchies of wealth and power? If you suggest that we should merely barter with each other and therefore avoid any more formal agreement, then a heirarchy of wealth will be created by whoever gets hold of the most valuable resources. In this case our tacit agreement is to allow 'ownership' of natural resources to determine status, and we have created bad form of government.
The point I was trying to make was that the nature of the social agreements that we reach (which we cannot do for ourselves individually) must be a central part of any discussion about how create a new, sustainable economic order.
I agree with this as a *portion* of the necessary project. But the reality is that we really do have strong reasons to do this faster than public opinion is likely to come around. That is, it isn't just the case that we can't eventually afford 8 billion rich people, but that material limits are banging up against us now, and we can't afford 1 billion rich people.
So while I agree that elegance of solution and redesign is part of the project, and essential to the creation of any larger structures to enable this, I'm not sure that I think that simply living our beautiful, deeply experiential, lower energy lives (as attractive as I find that idea) is sufficient, while there is the enormous opposition of advertising and an entrenched and institutionalized requirement for growth. That is, we're already seeing the way "simplicity" is marketed and thus the models perverted. I think modelling would be part of it - but it would also require a great deal of economic and social remodelling that would have to be done simultaneously, since 'twere best done quickly, from top down and bottom up, in both cases in a highly organized way.
Sharon
Good point--I recently flipped through a copy of "Real Simple" magazine. The whole thing was just a list of things that you could buy to live simply (the "articles," not just the ads). The whole notion of for-profit corporate enterprise, where the sole fiduciary duty is to maximize shareholder return, seems fundamentally unsustainable, to be frank. I'm open to being proven dead wrong on that point, and I recognize it's a very "extreme" position (from the context of what Americans are supposed to believe), but I haven't seen a convincing argument otherwise...
jewishfarmer -- please read my post way down below which starts with a comment about "Kill Off" and ends with the quote RE" the young man in an ad for the new Tata (IIRC) "Now There's A Man!"
I think that India and China as well as the USA are using economics to keep people busy in a mode of "intentional ignorance" while they actually serve the military machines being used to carve out more Lebensraum for the elites.
The policy of genocide or "Kill Off" is clearly preferred -- look at all of the arms bought and sold, and the stashes of WMDs folks have or want to have on "our side" -- whichever side that happens to be.
The policy of Resource War is sold like soap flakes --whatever myths, naratives, or fantasies needed are used. To sell soap flakes we use the fears of appearing to be unclean and therefore ashamed. We promise sex appeal and happiness if one uses the right soaps....drives the right car....and so forth. To sell war we appeal to other ancient prejudices and fears -- religious, cultural, mythical. We also appeal to stories of our mythical righteousness -- spreading democracy, freedom, and a magically replicable "way of life" to someday be shared with the good, compliant folks and denied to the evil-doers who claim to see things differently.
So the cars and soap flakes and most of the discussion about them end up being mostly a distraction, do they not?
The only discussions that make sense begin with: "There are too many of us competing for too few resources" and end with a new discussion of "So how can we design our lives to make a peaceful solution?"
No one -- not even Mr. Obama here in the USA -- comes close to talking about the reality: We either do "Kill Off" or "Peaceful Powerdown." Various "products" and "solutions are mostly marketplace noise -- the sound of a massive, slow collapse -- in any other context.
As I see it, there are two ways out of Jevons' Paradox.
One is that which you have identified: change our definition of "success" to one that is not proportional to resource consumption. No matter how efficient you are, if "better" requires more resources, then human competitiveness means that, in the end, you lose.
The other escape clause is the reason that there is an important difference between incremental (say, 5%-25%) efficiency and radical (50%-90%) efficiency. It is simply that radically reducing the resources required to perform a task opens up new options for supplying those few resources that are required. For example, a house that is 20% more energy efficient saves 20% on their energy bills (or is built 20% bigger, at the same energy price point). A house that is 95% energy efficient can have its energy needs trivially satisfied with a small PV system. It's also probably cheaper to build, and definitely much cheaper to maintain, because (at that level of efficiency) you have engineered out alot of the expensive, failure-prone mechanical equipment.
This effect is particularly pronounced in the context of energy, but it's also available in other realms: a radically efficient structural design may allow you to switch from steel to carbon fiber while saving money and embodied energy even though carbon fiber is expensive stuff. (However, IMO, the key to controlling the demand for non-energy resources is to design for 99% recycling through an industrial metabolism.)
There's a third way out: Radical birth control. Fewer people means fewer energy users.
"Radical birth control" starts to sound like a James-Bond-Villain scheme (Moonraker, anyone?). I've always been a bit empathetic towards the supervillain archetype, because at least they realize that drastic steps are required to fix drastic problems, but...
I know how to do that, higher oil prices for the USA and Europe because others are aspiring to raise their standards of living.
Related, but more in the global warming frame, Gwynne Dyer uses the Tata Nano as an example of the requirement for 'Contract and Converge' strategies: Lowering global middle class consumption to converge with the improvement in developing world consumption. Here are some excerpts and a link:
Of course. peak oil may take the 'gradually' out of the above equation!
It is has been estimated that the world can afford some 250 million people living 'the dream' of 'he with the most things when he dies wins'.
"We leverage our improved efficiency to produce more stuff" seems axiomatic. The solution therefore isn't free energy. As 'free energy' would deliver the death nail. Though clean energy production would seem to be the right choice.
I believe that the solution has been offered and mostly rejected, by many, remains the same and is spiritual in nature.
The adage by the 'Beatles' of "All you need is love" is close
I would admend it to "All you need is the LORD's Love" and a clean environment.
An interesting discovery of late for those who want more efficiency is suggested by a discovery made by Thane Heins of Ontario.
2 recent articles in the Toronto Star discuss his finds. Although there is reluctance amongst many to embrace his finds. He is gaining some momentum.
http://www.thestar.com/article/300042
http://www.thestar.com/article/300041
http://www.g9toengineering.com/backemf/demonstration.htm
(some have reported having problems viewing the demo)
I have seen the demo and it is impressive showing a rotor under load that should be decreasing in speed. Instead it speeds up.
If the gains in efficiency are profound how would this alter the paradox?