<DrumBeat: January 31, 2008The Oil DrumFormer CEO of Talisman Energy: Peak oil is 'here or hereabouts'>

56 comments on The future of mining machines

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peakoilBob on January 31, 2008 - 12:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I suspect it will not be possible to bring renewable energy systems on stream fast enough to halt the collapse of mine production rates.

From the little research I have done on this on the energy situation in UK, US, French, Japan I am relatively sure they are now past the point of no return.

Current net energy exporters may be able to build themselves a renewable energy infrastructure if they their energy resources are not seized/destroyed by war.

With ore grades dropping in many minerals over the last few decades we have been using greater and greater quantities of energy per unit resource. The Energy required to mine and process an ore rises exponentially with falling ore grade.

If we take Gold production for example the historic production rate has grown exponentially following the energy curve. But now it may fall by the double exponential because both the easy to get at high grade ore is depleting and the available net energy will be collapsing.

I guess those of us who survive this transition will learn to live happier less material lives like Nate Hagens reindeer :)

Sorry to be so pessimistic. On the bright side we can make lots of money using our acknowledge of the resource sector. We may not live to spend it or enjoy it but it will be fun while it lasts :)

Personally I do not see much of a future in recycling even though I believe that in only a few years we will recycling almost everything. Simply because production will be falling exponentially.

There is a very real risk of a "disorderly" descent. I do not believe modern "capitalist" systems in the US/UK etc. will be sufficiently resilient to prevail.

I hope mining dose adapt to using new tools and techniques but I suspect much will simply be abandoned.

P.S. sorry for the lack of reference did not have time to include them.

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OMGlikeWTF on January 31, 2008 - 3:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Domestic consumption is only a thirdish of energy used. Demand destruction aka getting fired will free up plenty of demand, we will be able to sit at home and watch tv but that will be about it, but not when its too warm or too cold. Those times we will be asleep, otherwise people get kind of cranky

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peakoilBob on January 31, 2008 - 7:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I have only researched UK electricity production to date. Within 3-5 years I suspect we here in the UK will not be watching TV due to the lack of electricity.

The UK is importing all it's Uranium, approx 3/4 of its Coal and by 2016 North Sea Oil and Gas will have collapsed to a fraction of its peak level in 1999, also by then coal production will be 5-8% of current consumption.

As for the US its importing 70-75% of its Crude oil consumption + importing refined products add the energy in imported manufactured products and out sourced services and that's a lot to loose when the imports dry up (export land model).

People will be happy because after labouring all day with their hands on the land they will be too tired to watch TV or worry or notice the hunger in their bellies ;)

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noutram on February 1, 2008 - 6:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yup, your having one of those days... ;o)

On the brighter side we will may new Gas pipelines from Norway and Russia, a major expansion of LNG (although noted we will be competing for this resource with every other rich Nation not on the end of a local gas pipe).

Our new nukes won't come onstream till late/early 20s -most likely scenario is that the existing capacity will be eaked out till the very last second- by which time uncertain Gas and YellowCake at $1000/pound will have quadrupeled the electricity price (if anyone has some projections on this I would be interested in seeing them).

There will be windmills everywhere and a fair amount of solar heaters and solar PV on everyones house by then too which should take some of the strain off the grid. Bush is giving $1000 dollar checks out at the mo -how much NanaSolar type PV will that buy in 10 years?

Oil at $200/barrel would be ~£1.60/litre here in the UK -tough but its now £1.05 so it is at least thinkable...

Nick.

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peakoilBob on February 1, 2008 - 4:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

So true! was having one of those days, it's a problem of mine :)

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