26 comments on This Week in Petroleum 1-30-08
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
26 comments on This Week in Petroleum 1-30-08
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
| Show without comments | PDF version
Search The Oil Drum with Google
Support The Oil Drum
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Campfire
TOD:Europe
- Unique Times -- and the Future
- Peak Gold, Easier to Model than Peak Oil? - Part I
- Carbon Capture and Storage
TOD:Canada
- In this house, we obey the laws of thermodynamics!
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
TOD:Australia/NZ
- The Bullroarer - Friday 27th November 2009
- International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
- Australian Senate: Peak Oil motion defeated 31:6
TOD:Net Energy
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- Early Warning
- The Energy Blog
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- Health After Oil
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Calculated Risk
- The Crash Course
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
Peak Oil Primers
Beware email scams!
Beware email scams claiming to be from this site. We do not have any job openings. If anyone contacts you about a job at The Oil Drum, do not reply to them, and definitely do not give them any personal information or send them money. Read more here.
“It is only through labor and painful effort, by grim energy and resolute courage, that we move on to better things.”
—Theodore Roosevelt
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Nate Hagens, Gail the Actuary, Prof. Goose
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Heading Out, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Sam Foucher, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Campfire: Glenn, Jason Bradford
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Emeritus: Stuart Staniford
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.










GAIA Host Collective
I annotated the graph with a few thoughts. The large cluster of data points is likely OPEC doing its part as a swing producer. Inventories drop and prices go up, a little more supply is released, inventories build and prices go down.
OPEC loses control of prices. What is odd is the build of inventory while prices are rising. If there was an expectation that prices would fall again then inventory should have remained low (the JIT line on the graph). But it didn't.
Instead refineries were willing to buy despite higher and higher prices. So I think that build was fear. Maybe that the US would attack Iran? Or they felt the world really had peaked?
Then as oil hits 80 they stopped being willing to pay and let inventory fall. So I think they are expecting that wave of oil in 2008. If it does not show up, expect another rush in price.
I think the large cluster to the left is easiest to understand driven by price. When prices dropped, traders take the opportunity to build inventories and vice versa - when prices rise traders sell into the rise and inventories fall.
There seems to be a target inventory range (that hasn't changed much with demand over time). At some point a few years ago when inventories hit the 260 mmb low point we might normally have expected OPEC to open the spigot and to see prices fall back - but on this occasion that never happened and we have the price migration from 40 to 70 $. It is curious that with rising price, inventories built back towards 350 mmb - presumably this was related to the anticipation of future prices being higher and it therefore making sense to own more oil today - a shift to contango?
The final leg of rising price and falling inventory looks like traders selling into the strong price rally - presumably with the expectation that they can refill their tanks at lower price at some future date. The $100 question - what happens next? We've just seen an uptick in demand to 86 mmbpd with record high prices.
I suspect this chart is worth keeping an eye on. If prices fall then I think we can bet on inventories rising and we head back towards $70 and 360 mmb. If prices rise then we may see another $50 sprint.
The constellation of record demand, record price and low inventories seems fairly bullish to me.