The Oil Drum

42 comments on The Beginning of the End of Oil?

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The Interloafer on August 20, 2005 - 7:48pm

In my mind, the most groundbreaking part of this article is the interview Maass scored with Sadad al-Husseini, the recently retired head of E&P for Aramco. Husseini said that Simmons is wrong to say 12.5 mbd out of Saudi Arabia is impossible, but that 15 mbd is indeed impossible to sustain. Husseini knows more about Saudi production than anybody else, and he says that the world is heading for an oil shortage. Wow! Meanwhile, Maass lays out all the numerous reasons why the Aramco officials like Naimi etc. must be so optimistic in their public pronouncements. All in all a tremendous article.

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Anonymous on August 21, 2005 - 5:35am

If SaudiArabia can boost its production to 12.5 million mpd by 2010 it only means they can increase their production by 0.5 mpd a year. But to keep up with the present growth rate of about 2% a year, we need like 1.7 - 2 mpd more every year. But look what's going on in Russia: no more increase, production has started to decline. Until now the Russians have kept the supply growing. It seems that they cannot help any more. Even 15 mpd from the Saudis would not matter much. Middle East is no more the swing producer that can throw in extra supply to meet the demand.