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57 comments on Science 1101 Part 1: The Science of Oil and Peak Oil
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k Nation (Jim Kunstler)
GAIA Host Collective
Figure 1 shows a year-2000 discovery rate of 10 billion barrels per year. If the production curve is just the discovery curve shifted 40 years forward in time, that implies 27 MB/d production in 2040.
A few years ago production was 1 MB/d; whatever it has risen to now probably isn't a significant fraction of present world production. I'll guess 2 MB/d.
Now, what does "extremely slow" mean? Does it mean the rate of change of production is very slow, 1 percent per year, maybe? That would bring it only to 2.7 MB/d by 2040, ten percent of expected world production.
What is the minimum year-2040 percentage it would have to attain to be significant?
How shall the car gain nuclear cachet?
Things aren't going all that well in the Canadian oil sands, according to an article in today's Wall Street Journal. Current production is 1.1 million barrels a day. The forecast by the CAPP for 2020 has recently been scaled back from 4.3 million barrels a day to 3.8 million barrels a day. Some of the smaller companies are leaving, because costs are too high.
If production hits 3.8 million barrels a day, it will be about 4% of our current production - not great. Current production techniques are very water and natural gas intensive.
If something like the Toe to Heel Air Injection method can be made to work, it is possible that production could be expanded. The Canadian oil sands is one place where technology could make a difference. It is possible that production could be 20% or 30% of a lower world production base in 2040, if technology works out right. I don't see it scaling up quickly, though.