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57 comments on Science 1101 Part 1: The Science of Oil and Peak Oil

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GRLCowan on February 5, 2008 - 5:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Figure 1 shows a year-2000 discovery rate of 10 billion barrels per year. If the production curve is just the discovery curve shifted 40 years forward in time, that implies 27 MB/d production in 2040.

Figure 1 does not include oils that are not liquids, like the Canadian oil sands. There are large quantities of these, but extraction is extremely slow. It is doubtful that they will ever become a significant share of world oil production

A few years ago production was 1 MB/d; whatever it has risen to now probably isn't a significant fraction of present world production. I'll guess 2 MB/d.

Now, what does "extremely slow" mean? Does it mean the rate of change of production is very slow, 1 percent per year, maybe? That would bring it only to 2.7 MB/d by 2040, ten percent of expected world production.

What is the minimum year-2040 percentage it would have to attain to be significant?

How shall the car gain nuclear cachet?

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Gail the Actuary on February 5, 2008 - 7:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Things aren't going all that well in the Canadian oil sands, according to an article in today's Wall Street Journal. Current production is 1.1 million barrels a day. The forecast by the CAPP for 2020 has recently been scaled back from 4.3 million barrels a day to 3.8 million barrels a day. Some of the smaller companies are leaving, because costs are too high.

If production hits 3.8 million barrels a day, it will be about 4% of our current production - not great. Current production techniques are very water and natural gas intensive.

If something like the Toe to Heel Air Injection method can be made to work, it is possible that production could be expanded. The Canadian oil sands is one place where technology could make a difference. It is possible that production could be 20% or 30% of a lower world production base in 2040, if technology works out right. I don't see it scaling up quickly, though.

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57 comments on Science 1101 Part 1: The Science of Oil and Peak Oil

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