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39 comments on A Vision Splendid or Selective Myopia: Exploiting the Australia 2020 Summit

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carbonsink on February 5, 2008 - 5:34pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Unfortunately the conventional wisdom amongst TPTB is that Peak Oil is some kind of doomsday cult. They simply don't take it seriously. That is unlikely to change while politicians continue to take their advice from the likes of CERA, ABARE the IEA and the EIA.

As Brian Fisher, former director of ABARE, famously said:

If the price of eggs is high enough, even the roosters will start to lay

They actually believe this nonsense in Canberra.

This post by economist Stephen Kirchner epitomises the mainstream view:
http://www.institutional-economics.com/index.php/section/peak_oil_nutter...

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DRAGONDONK on February 5, 2008 - 10:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Not everyone believes it. The Senate Committe Report last year concluded that Peak Oil is something that should be investigated much more deeply than there own limited resources allowed. The Howard government was pretty well represented by some senior senators as was the Labor opposition.

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Brisvegas on February 6, 2008 - 8:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Brian Fisher says "If the price of eggs is high enough, even the roosters will start to lay."

Steven Kirchner says "I’m with chicken suit guy."

Oxford University educated physicist and oil industry executive Jim Buckee says "peak oil is here or hereabouts."

Well, I'm with the Oxford University educated physicist and oil industry executive!

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carbonsink on February 7, 2008 - 11:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Stephen Kirchner is having another go at Peak Oilers...
http://www.institutional-economics.com/index.php/section/comments/peak_o...

A group of Peak Oilers put their money where their mouth is...
...
While it’s scary to think the peak oilers have this much money to throw around, their willingness to back their view with an Ehrlich-Simon type bet is praiseworthy. Having said that, the criticism of peak oil does not necessarily turn on specific outcomes for oil production, but on whether a prospective peak in production has any long-term relevance.

Anyone care to comment?

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Big Gav on February 8, 2008 - 4:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I can't believe he manually approves registrations - and that it doesn't tell you that registration is compulsory until after you've tried to comment.

Anyway - he's clearly a fool - even little fry like me have bet more than that on (peak driven) oil price rises over the past 4 years - with great success.

The big banks (I think Goldman's in particular) who bought up big in the futures market 4 years ago must have made a fortune.

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Termoil on February 9, 2008 - 1:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Reading some of the comments from the WSJ site was instructive and refreshing in understanding some of the deeply ingrained assumptions that exist outside TOD.

Most here would think the ASPO bet a pretty sure thing and it could be a great way to get publicity on the issue. CERA on the other hand is unlikely to respond or will dismiss it as a silly prank not worthy of their corporate status.

Ian Longfield

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Termoil on February 9, 2008 - 12:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Brian Fisher says "If the price of eggs is high enough, even the roosters will start to lay."

My guess is that Brian Fisher regretted saying that about a nanosecond after it came out of his mouth.

Ian Longfield

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