Sorry if I got a bit snippy yesterday but my father in-law just bought a new F250 to drive his 20 min. commute, alone, in his 3 piece suit, to his office, from his McVilla in the burbs.

Not that I think the prius will save us but man, hows that for "in your face dude".

I have decided to start spelling my name with only one F.

Jef

Doing my part.

Just think of all the energy the world could save if...

Well, look at the "bright" side. When his truck is repossessed and his McVilla is foreclosed, he will be moving in with you.

Sharon Astyk called it the "brother-in-law on the couch" syndrome. This is actually a good reason to have a small garden/farm. You can put the in-laws to work if they want to move in with you.

Anyone read this?

http://www.amazon.com/dp/086571553X/ref=pe_606_8324800_pe_ar_d1
Gardening When It Counts: Growing Food in Hard Times (Mother Earth News Wiser Living Series)

Book Description

The decline of cheap oil is inspiring increasing numbers of North Americans to achieve some measure of backyard food self-sufficiency. In hard times, the family can be greatly helped by growing a highly productive food garden, requiring little cash outlay or watering.

This book has been discussed here before, though I haven't read it.

Top shelf read.It gives some real good info on seed companies,and a different outlook on intensive bed cultivation

Thanks for the Reference, WT.

My wife and mom just finished reading

'Animal, Vegetable, Miracle',

Barbara Kingsolver's year of localizing her family's food supply. I'm getting pressed into the reading chair from both sides right now.. and I'm also due to finish Eliot Coleman's

'4-Season Garden',

about keeping fresh garden produce coming in to the larder all year round. (He does this in Maine, as does one of the Oil Awareness Meetup Organizers I met last night)

Bob Fiske

Both good books, Coleman's is an essential reference, Kingsolver more inspirational.

Currently working my way through it. Much more practical approach than more hobby oriented books.
However he still assumes you have a infrastructure available. I'd classify it as "farming for the poor" rather than "farming for post peak".

Still it's probably the best available.

IMHO a minimum library would be:
Gardening When It Counts: Growing Food in Hard Times
The Encyclopedia of country living
Putting food by
Solar Gardening
Four Season harvest.

But if you don't have the tools, seeds, fertilizer and plastic sheets prior to an event you are still S.O.L.

"I'd classify it as "farming for the poor" rather than "farming for post peak"."

post peak and poor might be synonymos.

A couple more I'd recommend:

J. Seymour, The Self-Sufficient Gardener

Hunt & Bortz, High Yield Gardening

A new edition of Seymour is supposed to be coming out any day now. Hunt & Bortz are o.o.p., but you can probably still find a used copy.

Seymour writes mainly from an English perspective, but the English are avid, experienced gardeners. He has some good stuff in there that you don't see in American gardening books.

Seymour gives you the necessary breadth, I see Coleman on the one hand and Hunt & Bortz on the other as providing the necessary two dimensions: stretching out your harvest over twelve months, and bringing in as much harvest as you can. You really need to be thinking about both.

WT...your post got me thinking...many of us have had gardens for awhile and several of us started gardens pretty recently (me, last year). It would be nice with spring around the corner if TOD could pull together a "Building/Maintaining Your Own Garden" article and have the experienced green thumbs help the newbies. I know we've had many posts concerning gardening tips and such, but nothing put together in a more structured article. Home grown food for thought.

Seconded. I am going bonkers trying to figure out how to make 1/4 acre support a family year round in a four season environment... 'cause that's alls I's gots for now. And trying to figure out how to build a comfortable home (meaning off-grid, not necessarily 75 degrees year-round, but maybe between 50 and 80...) for next to nothing. I'm thinking the non-linear nature of things (O, Chaos, Thou dost press upon mine heart, mind and soul...!) is about to get very real for the world.

I am not a happy puppy.

Cheers

You are possibly going bonkers with the realisation that 0.25 acres is simply not enough - about one hectare (2.4 acres) could be considered the minimum, unless you lived in a highly productive tropical or semi-tropical region. Doesn't matter how much you wish something to be so, if it ain't going to be so ...

Just concentrating on growing potatoes might be your best bet as you get a lot per acre, and hope to swap some for a more varied diet.

At least that is what the Irish peasantry did when they had to make do with tiny plots, although of course we all know what happened there.

I am not enough of a gardener to know, but perhaps cloches and greenhouses would help?

Another alternative where you might be able to barter work for more space might be to strengthen your walls sufficiently to support a roof garden.

Both thickening your walls and making a roof garden would also go some way towards insulating your house and reaching your objectives.

Passivhaus technology makes the house very air-tight, and relies on mechanical extraction to change the small amount of air needed, although an alternative might be to build your greenhouses as conservatories which would improve temperatures in the main house.

I also live on a 1/4 acre small town lot. I've got no illusions about being able to produce all of our own food just on that land. I think that with a few year's effort I could reasonably get up to maybe 50% or so. My first priority is to get the fruit and perennial vegies (asparagus & sunchokes) planted, as those take several years to get into production. I'm also going to beekeeping school right now; bees don't have to depend just on what I'm growing in my yard, so the honey they produce will be a lot of "free" extra calories produced on my land. Rabbits are a couple of years down the line, chickens maybe a couple more years after that - I've got the outbuilding and space for them, but I've got some work to do in reconfiguring it. Much of my yard right now is in shade trees, I'll have to gradually take most of them down (except for the two sugar maples in front, which provide afternoon shade as well as eventually syrup) to make more garden space.

One thing I'm doing to increase my production is to garden in containers on our deck. The deck is the sunniest place on our property right now, and I'm not going to let that sunlight go to waste.

I do also rent two 400 s.f. plots at our local community garden, though, so that gives me quite a bit more land to work with. I grow all of my root vegies there (less likely to be stolen), all of my brassicas (cabbage family), corn (with pole beans on the stalks - even if I lose the corn to animal or human thieves, I'll still have something to harvest), and winter squash; I've got these set up on a four-year rotation.

If (when) times get really hard and food gets really expensive, another option will be garden share-cropping. By equipping oneself with the necessary tools and supplies now and proceeding up the learning curve, one will be ready when a lot of one's neighbors are hungry and can't afford food, look out at their vast expanse of lawns, but don't have a clue as to what to do. Offering to do it for them in exchange for half the produce is going to look like a pretty good deal for a lot of them. Under that strategy, you got only close the gap to 100% self-sufficiency, you also can have enough of a surplus to be a regular seller at your local farmer's market.

I am not a happy puppy.

If you can't realistically move, store a large amount of white rice. Get some surplus plastic 55-gallon barrels, seal them shut, and bury them. Cheap to do, and will keep for decades. Just a suggestion.

Thanks to all for your comments. I wasn't expecting any, so this is a great surprise. Some great suggestions. The rice one is nice. Sounds like a good emergency store regardless of any/all other choices. Rice is gawdawful expensive here in Korea, ironically enough.

I was, in fact, thinking of greenhouses due to the limited space. I was incorrect: we have almost a half acre. Looking at some of the intensive programs, such as the fellow in the Bay area (sorry, can't locate the link just now... need to tidy them up) who claims 4,000 sq. ft./person is possible. Under those conditions, I can build a small home and have enough land to feed 3 - 4 people. I am also going to look into hydroponics given the high yields, limited space and good rainfall here.

As ever, money and time. And timing. To go from living in an apartment in the city to a sustainable homestead... daunting. I see it as being my only option if I want to ensure, to the highest degree possible, my family's welfare.

Cheers

I am in the process of reading the book right now. It's a very interesting departure from the double digging, intensive gardening method. Some time ago I had read an article in Mother Earth News about soil fertility with a recipe for organic fertlizer. I clipped it out and lo and behold, it was Steve Solomon's recipe. I have located a local crop service company which will mix and bag the fertilizer for use on our 13 acres of vegetables.

I am also in the middle of The End of Food by Thomas Pawlick. Both he and Solomon are in agreement that the demise of our food supply is directly related to the demise of the soil. As an example, a potato grown conventionally (using nitrogen fertlizer) has lost 100 percent of vitamin A, 57 percent of vitamin C and iron, 28 percent of calcium, 50 percent of riboflavin and 18 percent of thiamine. The story is similar for most fruits and vegetables. Also, it was discovered that vegetables grown with organic fertlizers retain more of their original vitamins and accumulated less nitrate during storage than those grown with inorganic fertlizers. Pawlick sites a book that is next on my list: Plant Vitamins: Agronomic, Physiological, and Nutritional Aspects written by soil scientist Dr. Ahmad Mozafar of the Swiss Federal Institue of Technology.

Last summer my husband and I ate exclusively vegetables and fruit that we had grown organically. And our purchases of meat, eggs, honey and cheese were all from local sources. We found that because of the nutritional density of the food, we were eating far less and felt so much healthier. Even though the raw-milk cheese was $20 a pound, once we ate it we could never go back to buying cheese from the grocery store. And a little slice of that cheese went a long way. Just like I haven't purchased a tomato from the grocery store in more than 10 years. Well, maybe a couple. And we are still eating potatoes, onions and squash from our root celler and tomatoes, corn and herbs from our freezer and lots of dried beans from the garden.

This is why I think that Stuart Staniford is incorrect in his hypothesis that industrial agriculture will continue unabated. As more people begin eating real food grown in real soil, there is no going back. There isn't a way to produce this nutrient rich, wonderful tasting food and that includes vegetables, meat, fruit and dairy products on a large scale.

As more people begin eating real food grown in real soil, there is no going back. There isn't a way to produce this nutrient rich, wonderful tasting food and that includes vegetables, meat, fruit and dairy products on a large scale.

I think you're wrong about that. Sure, some people are willing to grow their own food (or pay for someone else to do it) just because it tastes better. But most people are perfectly willing to sacrifice taste for convenience. They're busy, and the last thing they want to do is cook, let alone grow their food.

However, I think you're right about the soil. This article argues that the lack of minerals in modern farmland is causing mental illness. They've had success treated depression and other disorders with high doses of minerals.

Curiously, the idea for the treatment came from a hog farmer. Apparently, hog farmers know that if a pig starts to act crazy, the cure is mineral supplements.

It reminded of the poster here who said that farmers feed pigs skim milk in order to make them fat; they won't get fat on whole milk. (In the discussion about whether it's eating fat or carbs that makes you fat.) Pigs are omnivores, like humans, and, diet-wise, are probably the best substitute for humans in experiments and such.

But most people are perfectly willing to sacrifice taste for convenience.

or sacrifice taste just to eat.

Been trying out your doomer chops today eh?

Nah his wife just put him on a low carb diet

I think you're wrong about that. Sure, some people are willing to grow their own food (or pay for someone else to do it) just because it tastes better. But most people are perfectly willing to sacrifice taste for convenience. They're busy, and the last thing they want to do is cook, let alone grow their food.

People, in my estimation, are about to get a lot less busy. The thing about the doomsday scenarios is that they are possible, and probable, because things truly are just too complex to remain coherent in the face of multiple singularities and their resulting non-linear results.

IF it is too late to reign in climate change unless there is a massive, coordinated, world-wide response (Hansen), and IF it is too late to mitigate Peak Oil (less than 5-10 years to peak) unless there is a massive, coordinated, world-wide response (Hirsch), AND there actually is no massive, coordinated, world-wide response as is th current case, then how in hell is all hell NOT going to break loose?

Localized use of large farms, yes. Current agribusiness? Maybe not.

Sorry: no links, just my 2c.

Cheers

If it's climate change that's driving the chaos, then it will affect everyone growing food. Agribusiness, small local farmers, people gardening in their backyards.

This is why I think climate change could turn out to be worst than peak oil. Nothing is worse for a farmer than unpredictable weather.

Weather is always unpredicable except in short periods of 2-3 days. Even then predictions are often wrong. Experienced farmers are dealing with this all the time. I doubt climate change will make much difference and may even make it an easier problem in some areas where weather is especially violent like the Midwest. Right now I have both my corn stoves running plus the backup LP heater. It's 10 below with a wind chill in the area of 30-40 below zero. Global warming sounds pretty good.

Many researchers are predicting that the weather will become more extreme, as we settle into a new climate. Drought, floods, more powerful storms, etc. I don't think any farmer will say that's a good thing.

"Experienced" farmers may find their experience leads them wrong. And people who have carefully saved seeds that grow in their climate may find those seeds no longer grow there.

If we find ourselves with less energy to do the work for us then one logical consequence is that we will have to do more manual labor ourselves. In a nutshell: We will become more busy.

Hi soup,

re: "he will be moving in with you."

And you'll figure out a way to allow him to save face, while he'll realize he's one very lucky man.

re: "father in-law just bought a new F250 to drive his 20 min. commute, alone,"

Not alone for long, though.

HI again, Soup,

Meanwhile, recommend a dose of Chuck Wicks:

last half of "Stealing Cinderella":

"I leaned in towards those pictures to get a better look at one
When I heard a voice behind me say "Now, ain't she something, son?"
I said "Yes, she quite a woman" and he just stared at me
Then I realized that in his eyes she would always be

Playing Cinderella
Riding her first bike
Bouncing on the bed and looking for a pillow fight
Running through the sprinkler with a big popsicle grin
Dancing with her dad, looking up at him
In her eyes i'm Prince Charming
But to him i'm just some fella riding in and stealing Cinderella

He slapped me on the shoulder
Then he called her in the room
When she threw her arms around him
That's when I could see it too

She was Playing Cinderella
Riding her first bike
Bouncing on the bed and looking for a pillow fight
Running through the sprinkler with a big popsicle grin
Dancing with her dad, looking up at him
If he gives me a hard time
I can't blame the fella
I'm the one who's stealing Cinderella"

At least, he will have a nice place to live (the F250, that is) when everything goes tits up.

....The homeowners cringing in the media rooms of their 5000-square-foot personal family resorts don't know how long they can stay put microwaving pepperoni hot pockets with the default clock ticking. The mortgage "servicers" don't know how they will persuade interested parties like, say, the Illinois State Cafeteria Workers' Pension Fund (holder of X-amount of mortgage-backed securities underwritten by, say, Merrill Lynch or Deutsche Bank) to foreclose on properties scattered everywhere from Key West to Bainbridge Island -- or if there is actually any legal mechanism known to man that would make it possible to "work out" the sliced-and-diced collateral.....

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2008/01/fullbl...

By some standards, that might be called "modest." Apparently it is now cool to drive your Navistar Class 8 tractor to the Country Club. http://www.popularmechanics.com/blogs/automotive_news/4248351.html

souperman2/Jef -

Well, how do you measure a carbon footprint and/or the amount of fuel you are responsible for?? I drive an Escalade and my wife drives a gas guzzler Jaguar. We live in a 4,000 square foot house. But, before you kill me, let me explain. We have been married for 41 years and have no children. Graduated high school in 1959, and my 240 classmates probably average 3 children, 6 grandchildren and 2 great grandchildren. So, my wife and I saved the children cost and can afford more than the average. But, now which would you rather have: (1) the over indulgence of 2 people in 2008 or (2) eleven more individuals on earth who live ELP lives, but who in several generations will turn into hundreds of more people on earth? From my perspective, I deserve the "carbon credits" for not having children that I would have been allocated back in 1959 if such a program had been in effect back then.

Since it was your father-in-law, you are married. Do you have any children or do you plan on having any? If so, with the best of intentions, they will still have a far more negative impact on the earth than one F250.

There is a secret plan.

I think the truth, as Daniel Quinn told us when we interviewed him for What A Way To Go, is this: there is a secret plan in place. I t’s a secret plan that we don’t talk about because, well, it’s a secret, and we want to keep the secret. That’s what we’ve been taught to do.

This is the secret plan: we are going to continue on this way until we can’t anymore.

That’s the plan. And that’s what person after person told us when we interviewed them for What A Way To Go. We asked everyone we talked to, “What’s it going to take for people to change?” And what person after person said was, “It’s going to take a catastrophe. It’s going to take a catastrophe before people will wake up.”

http://carolynbaker.net/site/content/view/318/

Jblunt--
You were forced to drink the Kool Aide if you graduated in 1959, after coming of age in the 50's and the time of the man in the grey flannel suit. So no children is a positive, and less impact. You could of been a Dharma Bum, but they numbered below a thousand.
And the Esclade will make nice living quarters, and supply low entropy building materials for the survivors (if any).
I see your point. You have left less of a foot print.

Since demand worldwide is voracious, I am not advocating ELP because it will save energy, I am advocating it so people will be better prepared for much more expensive, and scarce, food and energy supplies. The key point is to assume a 50% drop in income and $8 plus gasoline. Also, it won't be a good idea to advertise wealth.

West ,my grandfather continued raising the food I ate for the majority of my youth,even when it became cheaper to purchase veggies at the store.I was raised to expect a quality of food most people never see,eating out of stores and "mcfood"
ELM can be a improvement to the quality of what one has on their plate if done right We have not pushed the small scale ag the way it will have to be to be effective.
One answer to "downsizeing"your life is to increase your garden size
8$+gas will blow this economy out of the water,as anything not essential will go away.No more 100 mile trips to the beach,20mile trips to the kids dancing class etc.A complete re-structuring will be in order.Many have said that a depression is how all the old structures in a society are replaced with new ones that can withstand the new environment that exist

Whats for sure is the change is coming soon.Here in Oregon,construction has continued at a blistering pace .... Until now.When talking with a small steelfab company I know to be a favorite of contractors I learned the workload for them is dropping to nothing in March this is true with 4 outfits I have spoke with in casual conversation the last week.What has been happening all over the country just came here.

Here in Europe/Sweden we already pay $8+ for a gallon of gas. Hasn't hurt our economy. And we have lower incomes and higher taxes too.

Yes but some idiots in North America commute to work the width of Sweden. Of course even that may not derail the economy, but sitting that long in one's car knowing one is burning eight a gallon buck gas may produce peak dementia and won't that be a scream.

jbunt

Took a minute or two to figure out a reply and what I figured out was that, if you could quite cleverly figure the way you do, I would rather you would have had one child and then quite as cleverly figured you had some stake in the future of the planet. Go figure, eh?:)

Yes, this is the problem. A lot of people outside the US know we have a "car culture", but they don't understand that the choices we have made - or had made for us (Who killed the electric car, damnit?!) - make those cars largely necessary. For most people, there is no short cut. And this is the crux of the problem. Knowing that and knowing that Americans essentially have no savings are all you need to really know to understand why the US will be damned lucky if the economy doesn't completely collapse.

Cheers

Well, most people here commute 20-40km (approx 15-30 miles or something) to work. My wife commutes 45km to work and 45km back again. I've had coworkers commuting 100km at 9 USD for a gallon of petrol.

Big deal.

Oil prices have to go much, much, much higher to affect anything. People will complain, but they won't stop.

I figure that the oil price will reach four figures a couple of years downslope peak oil, unless you see goobermint intervention, price controls and rationing before thtat.

And your income level is....? Better yet, disposable income....? Savings? Indebtedness? Are we only having this discussion about the middle and upper middle class? Europe is using about half the energy of the us per capita, right? Are you really trying to say the scales of the problem are equal?

Your anecdotal experiences don't necessarily = a typical American's, do they?

Cheers

I live in the Uk near cambridge and rent out two rooms to guys who dont want to spend 100 miles a day commuting - and thats like 4 hours driving a day here. Both have family homes but basically stay mon - thursday night.

This arrangement pays my mortgage (90% of it)
The spare rooms are available for family and friends at weekends
The arrangement saves 38000 commuting miles a year 0r 4000 litres of diesel.
My two lodgers basically charge up on sleep in the week so weekends are not simply a recovery period from spending 20-25 hours of the week in high stress commuting.

I suspect as fuel costs rise you will see a big increase in this type of arrangement in the US - Canada.

I agree. A lot of people are doing it already.

I'm cleaning out my spare bedroom now to get ready. ;-)

Here in Europe/Sweden we already pay $8+ for a gallon of gas. Hasn't hurt our economy. And we have lower incomes and higher taxes too.

No, you don't understand ... at the moment both the USA and Europe (and the OECD in general) have been doing fine, we both pay the same for a barrel of imported crude, we just pay taxes on different things. (Actually, how can you be sure that the prices we pay for European fuel hasn't damaged our economies - or is that just what you want to believe/have faith in?)

However, IMO if you start with $8 gasoline and then add all our fuel taxes and duties you will find the price will be just as economically dislocating in Europe as $8 and no taxes is for the USA.

Just to even the score, I would have to ask, how much to you pay yearly for healthcare, property taxes, and education? How much paid time off do you get when having children? I bet when it's all added up, we in the USA probably pay more out of pocket than most in Europe/Sweden.

In fact, and there are no links as this is anecdotal, this is true. I had a neighbor who was of Swedish descent and married to a Swedish national. In attempting to plan their future, they added up all the costs as you have suggested. All the little taxes on your phone bill, sales taxes (over 6% in California at the time), etc. All of them. They looked at services provided. Their conclusion? The US pays the same level of taxes as the Swedish and get far less for it. No health care, for example, which we pay for on top of our taxes.

So, you Europeans keep this in mind when considering what is likely to come in the dear old US of A: The same tax rate, less security, less savings, less disposable income, more debt, more reliance on individual motoring. Ah, as a quick note on motoring: once you do get home after your long commute, can you walk it for most of your shopping, errands, etc? My visits to Ireland and Bulgaria both say, "Yes." Same here in Korea. Most places in the US? Not so much.

Cheers


Here in Europe/Sweden we already pay $8+ for a gallon of gas.

Thanks for reminding me how worthless the USD has become ..

The real question is wether the cost to you in local
currency seems expensive to the average consumer ..

Otherwise we're just comparing exchange rates ..

Triff ..

jbunt, don't fret about rationalizing your decision to consume larger amounts of petroleum per person-mile driven than required. Since we're all sipping from the same finite resource, what matters is what is used. Personally, since I seriously doubt the USA will do anything at all of substance in time to deal with this issue, it seems as if the best current option is to simply use it up as fast as you can in order to force the global system to finally wake up and deal seriously with this issue. So you, along with the millions of new consumers in China and India and Saudi Arabia etc, are doing the best thing you can with your excessive personal oil consumption to help us towards that goal.

The thing that absolutely astounds me is that even here, I almost never see any mention of the single thing that could immediately cut a significant part of our oil imports: drop the national speed limit to 55 mph. And enforce it. I hadn't really thought about this until talking to my dad about this energy / resources problem we're having, he reminded me of that.

The fact that this, which is probably the easiest and quickest way to actually start working on the problem now, in real time, is barely even discussed on TOD, let alone the media at large, demonstrates to me fairly conclusively that nobody is willing yet to actually ask the spoiled American consumer to sacrifice anything at all. That goes for a draft to restore the military, paying taxes to pay government bills, like the war in Iraq, etc, instead of the 400 billion + deficits of the 2008/9 budgets submitted by Bush, as well as oil questions.

Nothing will change here until people are forced to start to sacrifice, all this talk of having your cake and eating it too is absurd, simply another manifestation of spoiled kids who don't want to start using their fair share of things.

I think I'll use the reality of a modification of the national speed limit as the indicator of when this country actually starts to do something real to work towards resolving its energy issues. When the political awareness and strength is there to do that simple step, maybe other steps will start to become more probable. Not even Matt Simmons is mentioning this trivially simple option in his recent suggestions.

The first step, after all, is admitting you have a problem. Then you look to cut consumption, and the speed limit is the lowest hanging fruit there is, all that's required is updating a law, then changing some traffic speed limit signs. Then you can start to work on the more long term solutions while you give yourself as a nation some breathing room re oil consumption.

I rented a Prius recently, and its mileage is almost ludicrous at normal interstate freeway speeds of greater than 70mph, and starts to return to a sane level at 55-60. You can't overcome the laws of physics and air resistance etc by wishful thinking.

Unfortunately, dropping the speed limit doesn't really save much gas. The DOT did a study, and found the 55mph speed limit dropped gas consumption less than 1%.

Part of the reason is probably that people ignore the speed limit. It's easy to say "Enforce it," but actually doing it is a different story.

Then there's the fact that the dropoff point for SUVs, minivans, and trucks (all very popular these days) is more like 40mph.

During WWII, they had a 35mph speed limit in order to conserve gas. Somehow, I can't see us going back to that.

I'm going to have to take the DOT study with a grain of salt.

When gas is in the 3 to 10 dollar range, or rationing is being enforce, 55 will make a big difference. Peoples mindset about speeding will change.

My tests show
55 mph = 52 mpg
65 mph = 42 mpg

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2508#comment-184873

Besides, I've been repeatably told to shut up, when results I produced at work didn't meet the political reality at the time.

Like I said, a big reason is probably that people automatically drive faster than the speed limit. What are your results at 65mph vs. 75mph?

The road I used to do my test has a speed limit of 65. I wasn't willing to risk a ticket to test at 75 mph.

Terrain, weather conditions, traffic and gas quality have a significant effect on the results, however on a different interstate I got about 41 mpg at 75 mph.

Note: This is for a 2005 corolla with 29000 mile, original tires and an automatic transmission.

Well, that would certainly explain it. IME, most people go 10mph faster than the speed limit. So 65 vs. 75 is probably a more realistic comparison, and there's not much difference there.

IME drivers on a limited access highways, servicing a megalopolis, tend to ignore speed limits entirely and drive as fast as they can without loosing control of their vehicle.

When gasoline shortages occurred last time, people obeyed the speed limit because it was such a hassle to find a station with gas and wait in line.

IMHO longterm shortages/high prices will cause an attitude adjustment, but only after an outburst of anger/denial.

But that's the thing: I don't think they really did obey the speed limit. Some did, sure, but most didn't. There's a reason radar detectors were invented after the 55 mph speed limit was passed. The energy crisis gave us the Fuzzbuster.

That's not the reality I remember, but economic and oil supply conditions were different throughout the country. I have a friend who grew up in Michigan and doesn't recall any shortages. (On the other hand he also didn't notice that the river had risen and drove his truck into the water.)

Plus the 55 limit lasted much longer than the actual crisis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Maximum_Speed_Law

According to this article "the first Fuzzbuster was introduced in 1968", prior to the crisis.

Yes, that was a big reason for the problems: the distribution was very uneven. Some places never had a problem, others had people camping out overnight just to get gas.

A major crop of potholes around Chicago has the Happy Motoring public observing speed limits, or even going slower. Events like two blown front tires together with a cracked transmission housing slow speed significantly. (I was not the driver on that one but was in the car. And that car was below speed limit.) Potholes get repaired in the spring, in theory, but with all local governments stretched to the limit I can see gravel coming soon. Drive safely.

So I'm not the only one who noticed this, that's a relief. I felt like I was driving an obstacle course.

Just like hunger clusters into famine, small blackouts cluster into large blackouts, potholes also cluster into deep, yawning chasms.

My tests show
55 mph = 52 mpg
65 mph = 42 mpg

OK let’s run a road trip on these numbers. Ten hours of actual driving, just to start with a round number.

650 miles. 10 hours. 15.5 gallons.

Now try 55. 11.8 hours. 12.5 gallons.

So you save 3 gallons and lose 1.8 hours. At US$3/gallon, you’ve saved a whopping $5/hour. Woo-hoo. At $8/gallon you’ve saved $13.33/hour. That's very slightly more interesting, but without importance if it's a business trip. Not that it matters, we aren’t at $8 yet.

The big catch is that if the cost of the 3 gallons is a huge problem at whatever price, you really can’t afford the trip in the first place. After all, your total cost is on the order of $300 at customary mileage rates near 50 cents; more like $360 if gas got to $8. Oh, and if the extra hours kick you over the threshold of needing a motel room, then 55 is a big-time loser at any gas price where you'd still be driving.

I have a feeling that even $10 gas won’t slow a lot of people down much, though it might induce them to get smaller cars next time. 55 was just empty moralizing of the sort beloved by Jimmy Carter, who meant well but wielded zero persuasive power. Europeans who visited us in the 1970s thought we were schlubs for wasting so much time crawling so slowly around such a huge country, and they were right. I commend the motorways of Europe, with their 120 and even 130 or 140kph speed limits, to your attention.

Even with rationing it would depend. Odd-even rationing as in the 1970s puts a big premium on driving as fast and far as possible the days you’re allowed to purchase. It might have little effect on short-haul commuting except to catch some poor slob out once in a while. Huge lines would certainly have an effect, but keep in mind they tend to grow best in big congested cities where nothing moves even as fast as 45 anyhow. Coupon rationing would quickly turn into a cesspit of favoritism and corruption, so there’s no telling what its effect would be, except to make some rich at the expense of others; no doubt government officials with unlimited coupons would weave in and out at 75mph amongst ordinary schlubs doing 35. With a soft limit (tradable coupons), it would be the same as letting the price go up while mailing everybody a check...oh, wait a minute, we're already doing that and we save the huge cost of the vast army of Federal jobsworths the other versions of rationing require.

Am I the only one in this thread who is old enough to remember what life was like in during 1973?

They were hard times!!!!

My dad was a car salesman and sales just STOPPED! That meant that my dads salary stopped. Fights broke out at gas stations. You were afraid to go for gas. You only traveled to the store, and when you got there you bought only the essentials (if they had them). I grew up as middle class, maybe the rest of you had a silver spoon and could waste money, but not us. It was an emotionally trying time.

If peak oil is real, and those times do return, I think you are going to get a very nasty education about how every dollar you save is really important.

"Am I the only one in this thread who is old enough to remember what life was like in during 1973?"

No, you are not.

In the immortal words of my mother, when faced with complaints about how cold it was in the house with the thermostat turned way down, she would simply say...

Put on another sweater!

You had a sweater?

"You had a sweater?"

Yes, we were in pretty good shape, sweater-wise.

I have appreciated a good sweater ever since...

:-)

I had better stop now, last time I followed one of these down I ended up living in a hole in the road ;-)

At least you lot had a car to need gas for...

;)

(It's dark in this hole...)

Cheers

Enforcing it is part of the demonstration of political will, both in terms of the population agreeing to do so for the greater good of society and the state in terms of being willing to establish some baseline rules and support them with actions.

If no steps are taken, nothing will change. So you need the real data, not the data of what happens when it's not enforced. People speed because they can get away with it. In Europe, people tend not to speed because the consequences are both serious and expected.

If no changes are implemented, none will occur.

45 or so is the ideal speed, but 55 is ok too.

The point is, this is not a fairy tale option, it's real, and is the easiest way to save even 1%, although I suspect it's more, but let's say it's just 1%. Then you look for the next 1%, and the next. Then you've saved 1 mbpd imports. If you don't start somewhere real, you won't get anywhere.

Think of any other way that you can save this much without implementing anything new or expensive.

But now let's question your assumption:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Maximum_Speed_Law

A conservative think tank claimed that the total fuel savings during the national speed limit was no more than 1% overall. It must be noted however that this group is funded by, among others, corporations from the auto and oil industries

What a surprise. A study by the Heritage foundation seems to form the foundation of your claim here, they find that .... ok, let's be serious and move on to something real.

http://drive55.org/content/view/39/1/ seems a good starting place.
which takes us to this article
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/10/19/MNG3NFAOF11.DTL
where a real world test was done, by my top of the head math, their trip resulted in a 40% fuel savings at 55 mph.

I believe 45-55 is the optimal range for modern cars, but I don't know that for a fact. That's because the engines are designed to run in 4th or 5th gear at freeway speeds, and 3rd up to that speed, and at the top end of 3rd, you're running at really high rpms. Most cars do not like driving in 4/5th at 40mph. They did in the old days, but then they were also only 3 speeds, and 40mph was about a good mid rpm range for the motor.

I don't have time at the moment to find any actual source that shows the true expected savings of an enforced 55 mph, but it's fairly obvious that if you can cut say 2% (I'll assume double any Heritage foundation report begins to approach reality based on previous experience - think of them as the CERA of general purpose thinktanks, ignore everything they say and assume it's worse) then you should cut it now, before that 2% will matter even less. Again, I find it almost surreal that at this point people are not willing to sacrifice anything at all yet, I guess it really has to start to collapse like Kunstler says in this country before we start, too late, to actually take real actions. That's what I was afraid of, unfortunately, but I didn't want to give full credit to the arguments put out by the 'Long Emergency', which I just read, because they strike me as being fairly much worse case driven.

We didn't have the political will back when it was passed. With rationing and shortages to encourage us.

I just think that this is a waste of effort. Too much work for too little reward. Even many peak oilers hate the idea. There are a lot of other things we could do instead, that would have better returns on investment.

Are you kidding? Like what?

Peak Oilers are valuable if they are fairly rigorous in their analysis or actions, people who do solid research which we can then learn from (eg khebab here, Simmons, Campbell, Laherre, Kunstler to some degree). I've followed some of these people's work for years, others are new to me. What I'm interested in is what will be done in the real world to start to deal with these issues, and what the actual severity of these issuse are, not what an online community likes to talk about. A lot of the stuff here is pretty much identical to any other highly specialized, non-mainstream focused topic area of online 'communities' in terms of going off-topic, having pet peeves/issues, techno-utopian fantasies, etc. Lots of cruft that is.

Currently, real world stuff in most the non European parts of the world seems to be the following: boost coal production and consumption until supplies collapse. Change nothing. Increase uranium production and consumption until supplies collapse and/or a few major 'accidents' occur. Change nothing. Get some windmills built. Use the non-existent extra electricity which will merely pad the downward slide in oil producction to drive electric cars. Sell more cars now as fast as possible. Keep building more roads.

Kunstler is right I guess, no wonder Simmons talks with him. I didn't actually want to believe that, but it looks like that's the most consistent scenario of all.

Refusing to sacrifice is a symptom of the problem itself, of the level of addiction Nate recently wrote about. Addicts refuse to consider stopping or reducing consumption as a realistic option. I guess he's right.

Thanks for the insight though. Better return on investment than putting up a new sign and enforcing a single law? Again, are you kidding? If you don't take the easy steps, what on earth makes anyone think that the harder steps will be more productive long term?

Anyway, have to go, can't be reading TOD all day long. So I will assume that we in fact have a fairly long way to go before society and its politicians begin to take real actions. And that, at least in the USA, those actions look like they will in fact come too late.

I'm interested in is what will be done in the real world

Me, too. That's why I think the 55mph speed limit is a non-starter.

Better return on investment than putting up a new sign and enforcing a single law?

Yes. One, getting the public to agree to put up that new sign won't be easy. Two, even if you get it up, it's the enforcing that's hard. Like I said downthread - the last energy crisis gave us the Fuzzbuster.

State and local governments are strapped. Cops use a lot of fuel, and it's killing their budgets. If they have to decide between chasing speeders or tracking down a murderer or a drug dealer, they aren't going to pick chasing speeders.

Far better than enforcing the speed limit, IMO, would be to require cars to have Prius-like gauges that tell you how many mph you're getting. People will probably go along with it, because it's a cost "they" (the car companies) will have to pay. The car companies will gripe, but they'll just pass the cost along to their customers. If cars become more expensive, well, that's not a bad thing, is it? I think if people see for themselves how speed affects gas consumption, they'll slow down on their own, far more than if you try to put a million cops on the highways to enforce a 55 mph speed limit.

Ok, this is funny. So you believe that changing all the cars in the country to use gas meters is more practical than having a national speed limit in terms of immediate results? And you think that will happen sooner and save more gas than simply requiring an easily enforceable speed limit? Enforcing laws is fairly easy if you simply consistently enforce them. After a while people get the idea, it's not rocket science, especially when it's a rational thing.

I guess Denial runs far more deeply than I suspected.

And then you believe that seeing that mpg show on their dashboards will make consumers change their behavior? The only people I know who are this disconnected from reality are Libertarians.

Sorry I wasted our time, off to do some more productive things. I thought you'd actually have something real to say, lol... ok, one less person to read on this blog, thanks.

So you believe that changing all the cars in the country to use gas meters is more practical than having a national speed limit in terms of immediate results?

It would be required of new cars only, of course.

And you think that will happen sooner and save more gas than simply requiring an easily enforceable speed limit?

Yes. We've tried the speed limit thing, and it didn't work. It's not "easily enforceable." (And I should know, having spent many hours parked beside highways with a radar gun, doing speed studies.)

And then you believe that seeing that mpg show on their dashboards will make consumers change their behavior?

Judging from the number of Californians complaining about how slow Prius drivers are clogging the HOV lanes - yes.

Attach RADAR GUN to lightpole...

attach CAMERA to radar gun...

wire camera to DMV...

send the ticket in the mail...

NO POLICE INVOLVED.

This is being done, a little, more as a respnse to innocent pedestrians/bikers being run down by speeders. It would be quick, easy and cheap to enforce ANY speed limit ANYWHERE.

The problem with cameras is that people quickly learn where they are. They're really good for things like running red lights at intersections, but covering all roads, everywhere...not only would that be difficult, it would be more than a little creepy.

Regulating speed by the govt. will be so easy in the future, it is happening now in Australia and Canada. GPS tells what road you are on and the speed limit. Car's computer can regulate drive by wire throttle to whatever position is required to maintain desired speed.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=78950

http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=730d32ff-c8da-4...

Towns are going to be desperate, truly desperate, for money. They will enforce any speed limit you set. So will counties and states.

Indeed. Here in Korea they had to put up signs warning the camera zone was ahead to stop all the accidents from people hitting the brakes for the cams.

It's a wonderful world, after all.

Cheers

Actually, we have loads of these metal-pole policemen here in Sweden. Almost everywhere. Hundreds of them. And the next step they're figuring how to do legislation-wise is to photgraph all cars, and check the time between different metal-poles, so if you on average travel faster than the speed limit between cameras, you will be fined. All done by computer, of course.

I was going to reply:

So, someone disagrees with you, so you simply write them off as being in denial, disconnected with reality, a waste of your time, one less person to read, etc.

What a juvenile response. Look, you disagree on what might or might not be effective. No need to get all snotty and petulant.

...But then I thought, nah, Leanan can reply for herself.

:-)

h2

I was always amazing to me that the speed limit was 55 and everyone was speeding.

Then I thought that there could be a reason the speed limit is 55/65 and everyone (including the cop driving next to you in the passing lane) is traveling 75.

Selective Enforcement. If everyone is speeding, you can pull over anyone.

Ayn Rand to explain what I mean.

"'Did you really think that we want those laws to be observed?' said Dr. Ferris. 'We want them broken. You'd better get it straight that it's not a bunch of boy scouts you're up against - then you'll know that this is not the age for beautiful gestures. We're after power and we mean it. You fellows were pikers, but we know the real trick, and you'd better get wise to it.

There's no way to rule innocent men.

The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws. Who wants a nation of law-abiding citizens? What's there in that for anyone? But just pass the kind of laws that can neither be observed nor enforced nor objectively interpreted - and you create a nation of law-breakers - and then you cash in on guilt. Now, that's the system, Mr. Rearden, that's the game, and once you understand it, you'll be much easier to deal with.'"

Ayn Rand

Yes, we are probably all law breakers. Selective enforcement is the norm, IMO.

Breaking a law is not inherently wrong or immoral. It can be immoral, though, to allow a single unjust law, or a system of fascism, to go unchecked.

Several years ago, I attended a conference about the air pollution problems in the area of the Great Smokey Mountains. There were in attendance (as I recall) 5 governors from the surrounding states. There was lots of great "speech-a-fying" by the state environmental departments and the governors, all claiming that something had to be done. In the Smokeys, most of the air pollution is produced somewhere else and carried in by the winds.

Having just moved away from Georgia, I cornered the newly elected Governor, Roy Barnes(sp?) and suggested that one quick way to reduce the pollution in the Atlanta area was to enforce the 55 mph speed limit. Pollution, such as oxides of nitrogen, increase at higher power levels required to drive faster and the CO2 emissions also increase, both due to air drag. Georgia had just gone thru the process of increasing the speed limits on rural Interstates, with the limits near Atlanta being left at 55 mph. Governor Barnes just turned and walked away, which would likely be the typical response from all politicians. Actually, I was rather surprised that he even waited around for me to ask the question.

E. Swanson

Replacing the vast majority the current automobile fleet can in no circumstances be considered 'low hanging fruit', and the fact that's your suggestion seems to imply you may have missed that point.

All that's required to change driving behavior is to make the enforcement a bit enhanced, and it partially pays for itself anyway from fines, and to make the penalties higher. For people with something to lose high penalties do in fact work just fine.

Your counterpoints are filled with straw-men and unreal scenarios. You don't need a million cops, you just need some consistent enforcement and penalties that are so high that you simply will not be willing to take the risk. Have you ever stopped resisting the urge, and started to push away the cars in front of you with your bumper? Of course not, the consequences would be so severe you don't even seriously consider the option. This is how Europe handles serious breaks of traffic laws. When I've lived there, people do not in general break traffic laws.

It's interesting to see how deeply the addictions go in this country though, Nate was right to write about that question recently. It's kind of hard to believe that an oil drum/ drumbeat editor seriously believes that replacing all the cars on the road with slightly more economical ones, with more gadgets, just as we are approaching serious decline of basically everything is a good strategy for this problem. What else can you really say to that though? Guess I'll stick to reading the real news from now on. Although some of the people who write comments here are pretty insightful.

My initial comment was based on an immediate action to start moving towards resolving issues, not some long term fairy tale. Something real that can actually be done now, almost immediately, that is. When you suggested that there are actually more realistic options, I was of course expecting to see a more realistic option. Not fantasies. In other words, some way to drop an immediate say 2 or 4% off current demand.

By the time enough of these gadget filled cars are sold, in theory, to make any difference in your scenario, we will basically be out of oil. With population increasing etc, year over year, it's hard to see any scenario long term that gets the country anywhere better than constant demand with maybe a slight per capita drop. How does that in any way help anything? That's not a 'low hanging fruit', that's more in the lines of a 'serious self delusion' I'd say. Strange to see such nonsense being promoted here though.

You do a good job though digging up articles often worth reading every day though, so I guess that's worth something, so thanks for that.

You are jumping to conclusions. I used to be proponent of the 55 mph speed limit. (In fact, I still am, but for safety reasons, not fuel efficiency reasons.) You can see me arguing in favor of it in old posts here and at PO.com.

Why did I change my mind? I discovered that there's no proof that it works.

It's kind of hard to believe that an oil drum/ drumbeat editor seriously believes that replacing all the cars on the road with slightly more economical ones, with more gadgets, just as we are approaching serious decline of basically everything is a good strategy for this problem.

Actually, I don't. I think the personal car is doomed. Which means arguing about the speed limit is like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. But if we are going to rearrange said deck chairs, I don't want to spend too much energy doing it, and I don't want to tick off my fellow passengers too much.

Well, since you started out this thread with a fake statistic from a right wing think tank that works below the intellectual level of CERA, you'll have to forgive me for having some doubts about what research you really did re this question. No offense, but it took me about 10 seconds to find the source that exposed that. So you clearly didn't do much work on this question if you're still repeating that study's claims as facts. Which suggests, sadly, that you in fact have no facts to support your claim at all, and are merely stating some belief you hold for some reason. Like most Americans are doing at the moment. What a surprise. Thus my disappointment.

But, again, my point is simple: until this society begins to take concrete, real steps, as a society, to deal with what is clearly a global issue, there's very little point in creating fantasy scenarios based on basically only wishful thinking.

So when we start to see some actually real, concrete actions, which requires some sacrifice from the American people, both in terms of them supporting politicians who are not trying to tell them everything will be fine, and in terms of then acting on this, there is almost no point in even paying attention to anything this country does re this issue. Your discussion simply highlights this fact more strongly.

Anyway, let's leave off this discussion, the limits of it are clear. It's better to spend this type of time doing actual work and research than filling yet another endless comments thread in a single day's drumbeat, that doesn't get anyone anywhere. I suggest reading some real research on such topics, that's what I've been doing more, but TOD is a fun read, maybe it's too much time re the data though to read daily anymore.

For some people, maybe these specialized technical web based non-'communities' (I say non because real communities involve real interactions, not virtual ones) and their ensuing debates etc might be interesting, if you've never done them before in another context, but sadly I have, in many other different contexts, so you'll have to forgive me for having little interest in doing this more, unless of course you feel like citing some actual facts and data, not groundless speculation and idle fairy tales.

Again, keep my beginning point in mind: until this society is willing to make sacrifices in substantial ways, nothing real can get fixed. If that willingness does not appear, as you seem to believe it will not (and you are probably right), it's not a matter of us driving happily around in prius cars in 20 years... anyway, thanks for the good parts of the work you do, it is useful, and I think the more rigorous material presented here will in fact end up shaping public policy, TOD is going to have political and social impact I think, although these types of threads will probably not do anything more than any other online babble does. And I've done enough of that to consider myself somewhat of any authority in that area, ;-)

Back to the real world now. Glad you all use your abilities to do this site for people, it's valuable, so thanks for that.

But, again, my point is simple: until this society begins to take concrete, real steps, as a society, to deal with what is clearly a global issue, there's very little point in creating fantasy scenarios based on basically only wishful thinking.

Funny, that was my point, too.

Anyway, let's leave off this discussion, the limits of it are clear.

You keep saying that, but you keep replying. :)

Again, keep my beginning point in mind: until this society is willing to make sacrifices in substantial ways, nothing real can get fixed.

Absolutely agree. But they aren't going to be willing to make sacrifices just because we ask.

I think it would take something like a war. Mere high prices aren't enough.

A real, concrete step, is reducing the speed limit. That happens now, in real time. An unreal, non-concrete step, is assuming that people driving priuses in greater and greater numbers while not changing any core behavior, is not simply more the of the same, and involves simply a change of car keys and some pretty steep new car payments, which may not even be possible for many Americans in the near future.

You seem to be missing my main point over and over again, this has nothing to do with you, me, or any other TOD person asking anybody to do anything. This is about the real, living, American society being willing to make sacrifices, and then supporting politicians who do not pretend that they won't have to. You seem to be confused on this issue for some reason, I've said it clearly over and over.

This is what I think we need to watch for here.

Until that point happens, however it happens, this country is not going to be leading anything but a decline.

A real sacrifice does not look like your scenario of high tech cars with marginally better mileage, and that sacrifice will probably only be available to the comfortably well off for the next 10 years anyway. It looks like people being willing to drive slower, take some more time, to help save gas, driving less, etc. Consume less that is, support that too politically. That's why I think that realworld signs of such sacrifice will be the real test of where this country is at. I don't look to TOD for solutions, I look to it for good analysis.

As long as nobody is willing to ask the American people to change, or talk to them about this openly, or to admit that this is necessary, nothing will change in this country at all, at least not at the speed it needs to change. This point is much closer than I think you realize. You can feel the tension building among the rich and powerful here, they are starting to figure this out, one by one. And they get listened to more than we do.

Personally, I don't know what it will take to change Americans, they aren't going to be the leaders on this matter by any stretch of the imagination. But I will look for the signs that this society is actually starting to grow up, and accepting sacrifice and reduced consumption as an idea of a new norm is the first step to that process.

Anyway, sometimes I can't resist a web chat, even though it's basically totally wasted time re anything bigger in life, but thanks again for TOD team's work, it's useful, as you all probably know.

A real, concrete step, is reducing the speed limit

And I disgaree.

This is about the real, living, American society being willing to make sacrifices, and then supporting politicians who do not pretend that they won't have to.

I thought we were trying to avoid wishful thinking fantasy scenarios.

Anyway, I am actually not a fan of efficiency. I think it's a trap. We need less efficiency, more resilience.

if you wanted to enforce highway speed limits, then re chip the cars, no re-chipping no lic. plate renewed. Like that will ever happen...

I am a fan of efficiency, I drive a VW TDI-diesel, stock and no mods. At 65-70mph, I get 48-52mpg,
If I drive 51mph keep the engine under 2k rpm I will clear 63MPG

This spring I will be upgrading it with a new 5th gear from Germany, new head bolts, injectors and chipping the car. Result plan to get about 65mpg at 2k rpms going about 65mph, the ROI is about 24k miles.

Re-chipping my car, a 1982 M-B 240D (manual transmission), cannot be done because it has no computers.

One could check the torque curve, but quite frankly, the extra aero resistance (from slightly vague memory iit is square, not cube, of speed) at 65 mph will not be overcome by lowering rpm.

Cheapest way to change rpms is to slightly oversize tires.

The steps I have taken (I get 30 to 31 mpg in the city)

Keep car clean & waxed.
Keep valves adjusted
Keep car aligned
Keep tires properly inflated
Keep fuel filters clean
Reduce unnecessary weight carried around (sometimes :-(
Use synthetic lubes (5w40 Mobil 1 is diesel rated for engine), also synthetic in transmission, differential, power steering, wheel bearing grease, brake fluid
Installed LED bulbs all around except headlights (less parasitic loss @ night)
Installed film in windows to reduce summer heat load
Installed Optima battery (lighter, less internal resistance)
I am thinking about euro headlights (better aerodynamics, look better too)

Drive conservatively

and most IMPORTANT

Drive very few miles !

My goal this year (if no evacs) is <60 gallons of diesel (and <3,000 kWh).

Whoof. I'd be nuts to step into this thread. But it's that sort of a morning. No, wait, it's afternoon. Drat.

In my admittedly subjective observation, it seems like people usually drive 5-10 mph over the speed limit, whatever that is. Because getting a ticket is a pain in the arse, and the greater the margin of speeding, the more serious the ticket is, I think there is some deterrent value. So I do like the notion of lowering the speed limit; I doubt the fuel benefit is only 1%. Even if it is, I think it's rather worth doing anyhow, ars gratia artis, to piss off those who deserve it. Anyone caught with a fuzzbuster could, with minor rewriting of law, be subject to waterboarding and summary execution.

And as long as I'm wishing, I'll say that 35mph would be a nice speed limit. Or how about a law that make it illegal for a private vehicle to pass a smaller vehicle of any kind? I suppose one 'plus' to putting little electronic dials in new cars would be that you could encode a more advanced algorithm; allowing a sliding scale which for safety's sake could - for instance - enforce upper limits on kinetic energy wielded by any mortal with a standard driver's license.

Most of this won't happen, and even if it did we'd still have W.S. Jevons blowing raspberries at us from beyond the grave. But there are different kinds of resilience, and insipid waste strikes me as resilience of the meanest sort. Perhaps a bad habit to ingrain in those who will be having to make serious transitions.

Yeah, I'm cranky today. But I'm for speed limits. I also think that SUV's should have shotgun shells wired up in lieu of airbags in the driver's steering wheel, but that's a different subject...

Here in the UK trucks have to go slower than other vehicles by law and in general THEY DO NOT BREAK THEIR SPEED LIMIT because, for them at least, the law is very srictly enforced.

If the vehicles break the speed limits in your country then it is because the law isn't enforced adequately - to use that as a reason for not conserving fuel is bizarre.

I have heard hundreds of reasons from Americans why they couldn't possibly use smaller more energy efficient cars, almost all of them wrong - most of the world's population do not have cars at all!

In reality, almost nobody wants to conserve until they have to - which probably means we won't have the UN required 30% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2020, which means (if you believe the IPCC) we will definitely have catastrophic climate change - plan how you personally will mitigate that (if you have the misfortune to live that long.)

Plan your future based on the assumption society will carry on as it has - until it can't! Do not expect pro-active change from society in general - the inertia that we see in many things applies especially to human behaviour.

I heard (I don't know if this is true because I live in America) that in Europe the trucks have recording devices that notify the trucking company if your truck exceeds the speed limit. The unions insist on it because with a speed limit that is actually enforced they don't have to worry about their bosses pressuring them to drive faster.
There are lots of Europeans on this forum. Is this true?

True. They are called tachographs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tachograph and, as well as proving that the driver was not speeding to their employer, they are used by the police to prove a driver has been speeding.

You would get much better traffic flow, less accidents and would be much more appealing to alternative vehicles.

Sure there is some larger national security / trade balance benefit of not paying ADj and Chavez millions of dollars a year? Maybe not,

Staniford also came to the conclusion that 55 MPH had little impact on fuel efficiency in his TOD article The Auto Efficiency Wedge. Didn't give a source but I assume he knows who the Heritage Foundation is.

One thing that struck me as very surprising is the lack of impact of the 55mph speed limit. This was adopted in 1973, and one might have expected it to make an abrupt and significant contribution to the solution. However, fuel economy increases between 1974 and 1977 were only very slightly higher than those of earlier years and it is rather hard to discern a major effect (eg a big spike up in the fuel economy growth rate in 1974 is not evident at all - there is not even a modest response until 1975). Nor is there any sign of a decline in fuel economy when the policy ended in 1995. Overall, I find very little evidence that the 55mph speed limit had much effect at all - presumably compliance was too poor for the theoretical benefits to emerge in practice.

Never knew about the 35 MPH WWII limit.
A Top Speed of 35 Miles Per Hour? It's often suggested that we'll make a WWII effort to overcome peak oil - and, unfortunately, we'll also need a Pearl Harbor style event to get peoples' attention. In the face of brownouts and empty pumps it'll be simple enough to demonize speeders.

Don't agree that cops would rather go after serious criminals than speeders - which is less risky and provides a source of revenue?

Then there's the fact that the dropoff point for SUVs, minivans, and trucks (all very popular these days) is more like 40mph.

they USED to be popular. sales are down. the Prius outsold the explorer and a lot of SUVs are going hybrid.

This is a very defeatist line of reasoning. You could say the same thing about almost everything else we might do to conserve.--People will not accept an increased gas tax. People will not accept a gas guzzler tax. People will not give up their SUV's. People will not give up the freedom of a personal vehicle to use mass transit.
High speed driving has not been around forever. Speeds have crept up over the years as car handling, safety and accelleration improved, In the l950's, California had a soft 55 mph speed limit, and yes a lot of people drove 65. Now, it seems like 75-80 is the standard on LA freeways. A 55 mph speed limit, even if unevenly enforced, would have the ancillary benefits of encouraging car makers to increase fuel efficiency by using lower displacement, less powerful engines, and would reduce consumer fears of buying a small car.

sf, that's exactly the point. Basically, what a discussion like this exposes is a strange phenomena where people assume that the conditions they grew up around are unchangeable constants, the norm. This isn't the case at all, talk to anyone from a rural background who is 60-70 and you learn that nothing about our current norm is normal at all. It's a peak condition, and it will not survive the passing of the peak.

When faced with this type of issue, there is only one rational solution: begin to immediately conserve everywhere you can to avoid full social collapse. If something yields 1,2%, great, do it. This is not complicated, unless you live in a fantasy world. First you conserve as much as you can, everywhere you can, picking the lowest cost and easiest places first, then you work on padding the decline with realistic alternatives. Believing in techno-utopian fairy tales will end with a very unpleasant picture, as the Hirsh report, and pretty much every other realistic study, is showing.

This is basically what the Nazis did as the rest of the world was massing on their borders, some last magic fix would take care of the fact that they were beaten. That's not an example I am looking forward to emulating, attractive as it seems to be for some.

It's more than a little ironic to see the US Air force and Navy start on the very same coal liquification plant technology that the Nazis depended on in WWII to meet their energy needs... If that's not a huge red flag, I don't know what is.

Stuff like this has nothing to do with being right or wrong in a discussion thread, it has to do with facing reality and being practical and picking the easiest targets first, not looking to some future fairy land.

However, again, I do agree with the drumbeat editor that it is sadly very unlikely that Americans will accept toning down their consumption patterns until reality forces this act on them. And it's not going to be a Prius with a cute gas mpg gauge that pushes that onto them, sadly. Just look at current coal prices, for example, it's quite safe to say that worst case scenarios at this point are the most reasonable guess for what's really going to happen. At some point the political system will need to deal with this, and if nothing goes really wrong, then TOD is totally wrong in all its fundamental premises. Which I don't believe is the case.

Interesting observation about talking to those 70 years of age from rural areas. Now talk to someone who's 90 (if you can find one who's talkative). The old ones have made much larger changes in their time than us younguns have.
How was such social stasis arranged?

Well, just because I was curious, and I know perfectly well that no Heritage foundation report is worth anything, I searched and searched, and finally found what I was looking for, primary source material.

IEA Energy Saving study. Recent.

That's a pdf, wouldn't open for me, so I read the html version.

So what are the conclusions? Well, obviously the conclusions align with science, common sense, and physics. Also logic. Not, unfortunately with the myth based ideas I was being handed by the editor here.
Speed reduction: benefits: VERY LARGE.

Here's a hint: if you find yourself relying on junk science and junk research from junk right wing think tanks like Heritage, Cato, and so on, your conclusions are probably going to be junk as well. So be careful where you pick up your information from.

Do real research, question the system's dogma's, then you publish after confirming that you are not just regurgitating some junk from some politically motivated propaganda tool or some corporate whores masquerading as 'researchers'. That's what all the real peak oil guys do, that's what Simmons does, that's why they are who they are of course too.... and I guess spend less time chatting in these threads.

Anyway, didn't want to leave this hanging. I also found cute little graphs that I could have posted from the gov about fuel economy, 55 is about the peak though. It was also tempting to slice out some of the graphs from the pdf so I could have graphs and stuff demonstrating what common sense tells you anyway, but c'est la vie. Confirming conmon sense doesn't strike me as a particularly interesting or productive way to spend time though.

I think I'll follow my advice and focus more on primary source materials, books etc, seems to be a better way to really get into this stuff, if it's real, it's important, and isn't worth arguing about.

IEA Energy Saving study. Recent.

LOL. Yeah, the IEA. No politics involved there.

Note that the report says the fuel savings in North America could potentially be 3-4%. That doesn't mean that will be the reality.

Here's a hint: if you find yourself relying on junk science and junk research from junk right wing think tanks like Heritage, Cato, and so on, your conclusions are probably going to be junk as well. So be careful where you pick up your information from.

Good thing I don't do that.

I think I'll follow my advice and focus more on primary source materials, books etc, seems to be a better way to really get into this stuff, if it's real, it's important, and isn't worth arguing about.

Unfortunately, that doesn't do you much good when you're debating online. Since nobody believes you if you can't post a link.

There have been several studies done on this topic. But, so far as I know, they are not available online. And they are contradictory. Basically, it all comes down to the assumptions you make. Especially on compliance. The IEA report admits that compliance is a big issue.

The IEA recommendations are explicitly meant for emergencies: "the conditions of a supply disruption or other oil-related emergency."

And I think speed limit reductions (and their other recommendations, like driving bans) are best used that way. One, people are more likely to comply in an emergency. Two, it gives us some resilience in a future emergency.

There is a reason they don't set land speed records in SUVs.
Aerodynamic losses go up with the cube of speed.
Lets say you are driving 75.00 MPH.
To save 1% of your fuel, you have to slow down to 74.75 MPH.

With all due respect, your comment is incorrect.

The fuel power required to overcome aerodynamic drag increases with the cube of relative air speed, but the fuel consumption only increases with the square of the speed. And, there are also other factors, one which varies directly with the speed and the other which is a constant. For a car (or SUV) the aerodynamic term begins to be large above 30 mph or so. The other important point is that the efficiency of the gasoline engine is greatest at wide open throttle, thus, the best efficiency occurs when the transmission is in the highest possible gear. For an automatic transmission, that means the torque converter must be in lockup mode. All that comes together to produce the best mpg at a speed near 45 mph.

E. Swanson

Doesn't quite work like that, mate.
Humans are naturally occurring living organisms.
A couple thousand pounds of humans is no problem for this earth- and when they die they will
become a couple thousand pounds of bacteria, predators, soil, plants, and be returned
to the ongoing circulation of biomass in the great community of living things.
A couple thousand pounds of Escalade, Jaguar, and McMansion are toxic waste- waste which will
be poisoning living things for long centuries after you have been forgotten.

You could not have made a better characterisation of 'people of the Machine' if you'd tried.
Congratulations, you are demonstrating how evolution is doing its job in eliminating
people like you. I am glad you have no offspring- they would have had a high likelihood of being
just like you. If you have recognized, subconsciously, this high likelihood, and are thus
congratulating yourself for not turning a problem of two people of the machine into a problem
of a dozen people of the machine, then i suppose you should get a pat on the head.

"Not that I think the prius will save us but man"

then the 250 won't kill us either, right?

I know all too well the pain of related-elders making absolutely no sense. My parents own a cottage that they rent out and are attempting to upgrade in total disregard of the underlying stupidity of their venture. They see it as an investment and pour obscene amounts of money into it on the mistaken belief that some stooge will pay upwards of a million clams? for their disaster in the middle of nowhere (imagine a giant cottage with plenty of nutrient-poor land entirely heated by 1970s baseboard heaters with an indoor pool, heated by 1970s tech, and with giant north-facing windows).

As it is a 'business' they feel they can write off no end of TVs, ACs, and septic systems (Revenue Canada recently served them with a $90,000 bill). Oh, and just to make this topical, they claimed ~$5,000 in gas this past year for 'management' visits (I love'em but come on).

It's enough to make an 'ELPer' puke.

I have decided to start spelling my name with only one F.

Jef

Doing my part.

LOL! I used to spell mine with an apostrophe. It was DIY'er, but the funny character caused all sorts of server problems so I shortened it to save electrons.