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GAIA Host Collective
Current Arctic ice is the largest extent in 15 years, thickest too. http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2008/02/15/arctic-ice.html
The decline in minimum sea-ice extent last year was exceptional. Yearly variation might be expected to bring minimum extent back toward the trend line. However, the long term trend has been downward, which is the important measure, not one year's low extent. The same comment applies to yearly temperature measurements. It's the long term trend which is important and that's been heading higher.
Your quoted article does not say that the sea-ice extent is the largest in 15 years, nor the thickest.
Are you spreading denialist disinformation??
E. Swanson
"However, the long term trend has been downward, which is the important measure, not one year's low extent."
Exactly! I remember being on Yahoo's political message boards before they were suddenly and without any explanation eradicated, and the argument from the Anti-GW people was that 1998 was the warmest year on record and since then the world had cooled. Then in 2005 the previous record of 1998 was broken and that argument stopped being made.
Now there are arguments of a differing basis. Fact is though, as you mentioned in your post, the long term trend is towards warmer temperatures. The 650,000 year chart showing temperatures closely follow CO2 increases is all one needs to know to realize that if humankind puts more CO2 into the atmoshphere it will result in warmer temperatures. That's why 95% of the worlds ice is reducing in mass, not expanding.
Regional variations, La Nina's vs. El Nino's are irrelavent. The only factor that's important is the long term trend. But I've also seen these weblinks and articles trying to debunk GW and they all have one thing in common. A self interest in arguing against GW. If that is the mindset then one can always find anomolies to make their argument. Think though in long term measurements. What is happening to ice all over the world, not just in east antarctica or for one winter season in the arctic right after record melting in the Summer of the same year.
I'm convinced those against GW are intractable. There is no amount of evidence available to ever convince them otherwise. Whether that intractable position is the result of religious belief that only God can change the weather, or whether that is support of a political position, or some other reason altogether, the result is the same - intractibility.
It's like trying to convince a Catholic to become a Jew, or a Christian to become a Muslim. It's just never going to happen. What this means is the rest of us that do believe in GW just need to move forward with whatever technology and policies that make the best sense to reduce the build up of CO2 in the atmosphere. Plain and simple and not get distracted by intractibility.
Your friends at realclimate have acknowledged that the planet has remained stable in temp since 1998. They even conceded that if this continues for the next 5 years they will have to completely "rethink" their models. This was in reply to one of the comments about this very subject.
Link. Please.
Sorry, I did not keep the link. It was some time back in Dec during comments on a subject about temps. I thought you guys religeously read the site? Just email them and ask.
While I couldn't find the discussion you refer to, I found a recent article which addresses your issue, that is the fact that you are looking at short term data.
See
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/01/uncertainty-noise-...
I'm convinced those against GW are intractable. There is no amount of evidence available to ever convince them otherwise.
I have a theory on this. Global warming has been framed as a moral issue rather than an economic one. If you accept the scientific evidence, then you must accept the policy proscription of drastically reduced emissions, because to knowingly let the earth warm would be morally wrong. This sucks all the oxygen out of what should be a reasonable debate: How much does it make sense to reduce emissions, and how much does it make sense to adjust to a warmer world?
My theory is that many people believe that reducing emissions will be more expensive than adjusting to the changes. But because that debate has been denied them, they fall back (consciously or unconsciously) to denying the science behind the warming.
I think it will make sense to do some reducing, and some adjusting, until the marginal costs are about equal (probably erring on the side of safety, since it's hard to undo emissions if their prove costlier than expected). That means more emissions restrictions than we have now (at least in the US, where the marginal cost of carbon is zero), but more fundamentally it means looking at it as an economic challenge, not a moral one.
peace,
lilnev
lilnev,
Peace yes.
But I don't see how GW can be framed as an "economic" issue.
It's all about refusing to "account" for the damage done by people pumping gases into the commons cesspool we call our atmosphere.
If someone dies on the other side of the planet due to an unusually harsh storm (arguably caused by GW), what's the cost to you, what's the cost to me?
$0
From an "economic" point of view, we don't give a $h*t about the lost lives or lost lifestyles of others. So yes, it is a moral issue.
From an "economic" point of view, we don't give a $h*t about the lost lives or lost lifestyles of others. So yes, it is a moral issue.
Nope. Lives lost are represented as lost labor pool and reduced demand, which are represented as lulls in economic growth and more expensive labor/products. This is before we even touch capital loss.
This is fundamentally an economic issue, that unfortunately is often debated by those that don't understand or flat out disbelieve economics.
So if sea level rises wipe out Bangladeshi villages, one would ask "how much value do they add with their labor?"
The answer is "not much." In fact, it might not have any measurable economic impact on the US, so by that argument their deaths and displacement wouldn't matter.
Sure. You're discounting some of the value add of their labor more than you should of course. There are a number of industrial activities in Bangladesh that have comparative advantage that would push the price up globally (if rather marginally...) but lets say there's no economic impact.
Its sad, but ultimately moral arguments dont influence policy. Economic arguments do. If there's no economic impact, we're not going to do a damned thing about it.
while the displacement of tens of millions of people in Bangladesh may no have a significant impact on the US, almost any sea level rise will hurt many US coastal cities, such as New York . (link is to a google maps overlay showing where the new coastline would be with a N meter sea level rise (N is 0 to 15m). )
It is estimated that 600 million people live withing 10m (vertically) of the sea and, no matter which country you are, there is no way the displacement of that many people across the world would have a negative impact. 10m is long term possible, the 100M people within 5m is a more plausable scenario, assuming that global warming occurs, and some ice melt occurs (total Greenland and antarctic ice melt is about a 70m sea level rise).
ipcc (2001) on greenland melt rates (on the order of meters per hundreds of years per degree)
edit: typo fix
It would take thousands of years to melt both poles completely. Wont happen any sooner as you cannot change the lasws of physics. Especially since the ice is growing in Antarctica.
Second, how come the IPCC recent 2007 report had dramatically dropped the amount of rise from previous reports, and how come they note clearly that there has not been an accelaration in the current rate of sea level rise of about 4 inches in 100 years?
Until there is definative measurements showing a change in the rate of sea level on the orders required by your post then your just armchair speculating.
Double post
Another nonsensical reply. 1. You're wrong. (Not your. English much?) 2. The North Pole has already melted by about 50%, so please explain how that is going to take another "thousands" of years. 3. All of the ice sheets don't have to melt to cause havoc for humanity, or are you not aware that billions live within meters of sea level?
Further, the IPCC didn't even deal with ice melt in the report, despite your false claim. This is common knowledge, so why lie about it?
http://www.aip.org/history/exhibits/climate/floods.htm
The Scandinavian Ice Sheet gives some clues:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/311/5766/1449
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/03/060312210108.htm
Of course the rising sea levels 12,000 years ago was much faster, all the ice that was as far south as the Canada US boarder was melting! In Ontario we had a huge lake that engulfed most of south-eastern Ontario. The Scarborough Bluffs were once a delta from a river feeding into that lake 12,000 years ago. If you look at a geological graph of rates of sea level over the past 12,000 years you wull see it follows an S curve. Fast during the hight of the major melt, and has been gradually slowing ever since to the current rate. You cannot extrapolate that past event to today because the ice mass is tremendously lower than back then. The last time Greenland was ice free was some 180,000 years ago. The ice sheet survived 400 years of the Medeval Warm Period which had a rise of temp just as fast as today's and was warmer than today.
And as noted in these outlandish speculations, you are still looking at 500 years down the road. Do you really think the world population by then will be in the billions? Do you really think by then even a 25 foot rise in sea level will be an issue? No, survival in a post carbon world, and possible recovery from WWIII, will be the major concern.
And, oh, BTW. If you want to ban me from posting non-referred papers against AGW because they are not refereed, then that applies to EVERYONE about EVERYTHING on TOD.
You are unable to engage in intelligent debate. This will be my last response to you.
First, you posted that ice sheets take thousands of years to melt. You were wrong.
Second, don't claim it's because it was so far south when it was *Scandinavian.* When you obfuscate, you lie. It is that simple. You are lying to project an agenda.
Third, anyone proven to obfuscate, lie and distort should be banned. You are the only poster I've noted doing this. Others seem to at least support their comments with something resembling intelligence and scholarship. You just lie.
Fourth, I did not post this info to debate other issues of melt. I posted simply to correct your distortions. What I think will happen with ice melt is not worth discussing with you. It would be a waste of time.
Fifth, on the issue of AGW you contradict yourself. You have claimed to be reading the literature and being open-minded. You don't even approach that description. 1. Everything you present has an anti-AGW bias. 2. You post your crap and claim objectivity but are not familiar with the most important recent science on the subject? Even though it has been widely distributed?!
Finally, luckily for you, I am just a reader here. I am quite certain my point of view means exactly zero to the people running this site. Were I an admin here, you would be gone unless and until you learned to present information without distortion.
Hell, they should ban anyone who responds to you: doing so is *that* much of a waste and an embarrassment. I am embarrassed I've given you any attention at all. It's the equivalent of driving a Hummer one block to the store to buy one plastic bottle of oil for a Winnebago.
Cheers
A minus of a minus is a plus.
Or, if the wiped out unfortunates are owed net compensation from our country --say for sweat shop labor they didn't get paid for, or damage to their health due to sweat shop conditions, then the wipe out is a net economic gain.
Or, if the wiped out unfortunates were trying to climb the life style ladder by switching from walking to using automobiles,then the wipe out is a net economic gain because they no longer present "demand" for oil and thus they no longer cause oil to rise above $100/bbl.
Yes, "economics" is great fun and can be twisted and pulled in any desired direction just like a nose of wax.
A "lost labor pool" that is lost before we have to pay them is a gain on "our" balance sheet. A "reduced demand" that reduces our costs is a gain on our balance sheet. Believe it or not, there are some of us who do fully understand the deep "fund-a-mentals" of economic theory and of the modern world's practice thereof.
It's all in how one "accounts" for some things and blindly refuses to account for others(i.e., externalities).
This is a net economic gain. The demand they produce enriches the entire global economy.
A car has smoke and mirrors.
How does pumping noxious fumes into the atmosphere "enrich" everybody?
How does making everybody pay more for energy "enrich" everybody?
Clearly we are talking past each other. My definition of what "enriches" humanity and your definition of what "enriches" seem to be very different. I guess it's that kind of difference that makes the world spin and tilt off balance. Peace. :-)
_____
p.s. It is producers who "produce" and demanders who demand. Demanders do not "produce" demand. Demanders "consume" that which the Producers produce. "Demand" is just a psycho-babble substitute word for consumption.
You could start with Adam Smith and then read Ricardo, then move on to more modern theories of labor and capital by say Keynes or Friedman. While ideology of the role of the state may be vastly different, nearly all economic models value people as a resource rather than a cost.
...nearly all economic models value people as a resource rather than a cost.
Please think about what you are saying for just a minute. To demonstrate the absurdity of of this assertion, I offer the following absurd example: If the human population were 100 billion instead of 7, while our resource base remained at its present level, would this extra 93 billion raise or lower the average standard of living? Economic output would of course be somewhat higher, but without increasing resource availability, the per capita wealth would be drastically lower.
If there are insufficient resources to maintain full employment, there will be an excess supply of labor. This excess will drive wages down and thus reduce the standard of living for those who are lucky enough to have a job. Those who are unemployed will be a drain on everyone else, as they will not be producing anything and they will still require clothing, food, shelter, and medical treatment. Their 'demand' is a net loss, as it must be subsidized by everyone else.
This is not to say that the economic deities mentioned above were entirely wrong. They assumed world resources were virtually infinite, which was a valid assumption at the time, when the world had a much smaller population. This assumption is no longer justifiable and as such, most of the economic laws which depend on this assumption are no longer valid.
No, because people create resources. Sure there's an upper limit, but determining what that limit is is a seperate discussion.
Thats not clear at all. Its eventually not true, but its still true today.
I guess this is the place where we physics-oriented people butt heads with you economics-die-hard people.
In our world, matter/energy can neither be "created" nor destroyed.
In your world people "create" money out of thin air and apparently, since money and resources are interchangeable in your mind, people can also "create" resources out of thin air.
Sorry, they can't.
People don't "create" resources.
What we have on this planet Earth is what we have. Whether you bring 6.5 Billion of your resource-creators to the party or 100 Billion, they aren't going to be "creating" new resources. They'll be fighting over what limited resources are available. Simple as that.
Increased economic output is not the same as increased per capita income.
Increased per capita income for some is not always increased per capita income for others. There are zero sum and even negative sum games going on.
This is the argument George Monbiot made in the Guardian yesterday.
Juggle a few of these numbers, and it makes economic sense to kill people
This isn't new information. Rich people are worth more by definition.
Rich people are worth more by definition.
Ah, but that dicounts the future. I would also put many great, but certainly not rich, scientists and engineers ahead of a lot of wealthy people with respect to worth.
From at least one perspective, those who are least among us have the greatest value because our care for them connects us with the highest value of all. This suggests that attempting to extend a theory of value of labor to a theory of value of people is a mistake.
Chris
But what if it is the other way around, CO2 closely following the temperature?
CO2 levels and global temperature are co-dependent in that they form a positive feedback loop. Increased CO2 levels raise global temperature and increased temperature melts permafrost, which releases more CO2 and methane, another greenhouse gas. This cycle continues until either all of the trapped gas has been released or a more powerful negative feedback loop brings the system into equilibrium.
See Earth's permafrost starts to squelch
I think few people argue against the greenhouse effect and positive feedback loop. This is not the point.
The main debate evolves around the human-induced global warming, the anthropogenic theory, so in this case is really relevant who was the first, the hen (CO2) or the egg (increased temperature).
Increase in temp. The current warming trend started around 1890, long before we started emitting large quantities of CO2 (after 1960).
Ah, shame on me, feeding the trolls. But they do try taking over issues like this. It's like arguing with a Jehovah's Witness about the kingdom of heaven when you're late to be somewhere.
But OK, I guess it's my turn to pick up the dog poop, so I'll throw one in here.
In this chicken-and-egg argument of whether CO2 causes global warming or vice-versa, yes we're seeing positive feedbacks; at least those perceiving the real world do.
But the CO2 causes the warming, period. Many instances of it have been kicked off by volcanism releasing greenhouse gasses. Anyone here flat-out dumb enough to think that rise in CO2 causes volcanos to erupt? Probably.
You asked about the causal relationship of the correlation. This feedback loop could be triggered by either a rise in temperature from increased solar input or an increase in greenhouse gases. Given we have raised the levels of CO2, we have at least contributed to the warming.
"Then in 2005 the previous record of 1998 was broken and that argument stopped being made."
Pachauri on Recent Climate Trends
... rebound back to more near normal coverage for this time of year..."
Hi BD,
The reference to this time of year could be significant. This is, after all, Canada and it's winter so you would expect a seasonal rebuild in this ice, although judging by yesterday's +12C temperatures and today's high of +11C here on the east coast, you could be forgiven if you thought it were already April or May. In any event, I'm left to wonder how conditions will fair come spring and summer and how these coming months will compare to previous years given that these temperate seasons appear to be growing increasingly warmer. Will the more normal, winter-like temperatures of the past couple months be sufficient to reverse any long term decline? I kinda have my doubts.
Cheers,
Paul
Include that the following places have had the coldest recorded temps this winter: China, India, parts of the US, Parts of central Europe. In the southern hemisphere they also saw the coldest year in decades. Antarctic ice is at the largest extent it's been in 50 years. Now before you claim that one winter is not a trend, one winter can indeed change the trend line, especially if this continues for several more years.
Now before you claim that one winter is not a trend, one winter can indeed change the trend line, especially if this continues for several more years.
Not being statistically inclined, I won't even attempt to fluff and bluff my way through this alternate universe but, yes, I agree one winter does not make a trend and, yes, a succession of future winters that are colder than what we would normally expect might suggest the emergence of an opposing trend. But if I were a dog and you had kicked me nine times in a row, I hope you'd forgive me for harbouring any lingering suspicions if you should fail to kick me a tenth.
Cheers,
Paul
Speculate all you want, you would only really know when things do or do not unfold.
True, I could become incredibly
well endowedwealthy some day, but I'm hardly counting on it. And, btw, I'm not letting those boots out of my sight. :-)Cheers,
Paul
Please don't talk about what people will know when since you have lied above about the content of the links you provided. You are not interested in anyone "knowing" anything.
"Antarctic ice is at the largest extent it's been in 50 years."
No it is not. It is barely above the mean for the time of year.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeserie...
Notice the dramatic drop in 2007, but the dramatic rise in 2008, more so than previous years. And yes, I do see the over all long term gradual drop. I never said warming isn't happening, it has, since 1890.
How is this "denialist misinformation"?
There's an upside to the extreme cold temperatures northern Canadians have endured in the last few weeks: scientists say it's been helping winter sea ice grow across the Arctic, where the ice shrank to record-low levels last year. Temperatures have stayed well in the -30s C and -40s C range since late January throughout the North, with the mercury dipping past -50 C in some areas. Satellite images are showing that the cold spell is helping the sea ice expand in coverage by about 2 million square kilometres, compared to the average winter coverage in the previous three years. "It's nice to know that the ice is recovering," Josefino Comiso, a senior research scientist with the Cryospheric Sciences Branch of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Centre in Maryland, told CBC News on Thursday. […] Winter sea ice could keep expanding. The cold is also making the ice thicker in some areas, compared to recorded thicknesses last year, Lagnis added. "The ice is about 10 to 20 centimetres thicker than last year, so that's a significant increase," he said. If temperatures remain cold this winter, Langis said winter sea ice coverage will continue to expand.
Ice between Canada and Greenland reaches highest level in 15 years.
Minus 30 degrees Celsius. That's how cold it's been in large parts of western Greenland where the population has been bundling up in hats and scarves. At the same time, Denmark's Meteorological Institute states that the ice between Canada and southwest Greenland right now has reached its greatest extent in 15 years. 'Satellite pictures show that the ice expansion has extended farther south this year. In fact, it's a bit past the Nuuk area. We have to go back 15 years to find ice expansion so far south. On the eastern coast it hasn't been colder than normal, but there has been a good amount of snow.'
http://sermitsiaq.gl/klima/article30834.ece?lang=EN
Hey, JR, I've some land in Tucson I'd like to sell you. I'm moving to Vermont.
So it's -30 Celsius in Greenland. Is that a surprise to you? Who do you think is impressed?
The locals are bundling up in hats and scarves! Oh my! Do tell. How much are you paid to shovel this tripe with a straight face?
It's denialist information because it represents just one area, ignoring changes in other areas, such as the Barents Sea.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,298013,00.html
Your presentation is what's called "Cherry Picking". That's what lawyers and debaters do, pick the facts to support their side, while ignoring the rest. The important variable is the minimum area at the end of the melt season, not that in just one area mid way thru the seasonal changes, IMHO. The sea-ice off the southwest Greenland coast is heavily influenced by the East Greenland Current, which is, in turn influenced by the THC waters which sink in the Labrador Sea. There are fluctuations in the THC, which can also result in changes in local sea-ice.
But, none of that wouldn't interest you, would it?
E. Swanson
I live a bit north of Fairbanks, AK. The last few days have been unusually warm for this time of year at around 40 F (5 C) and this trend is expected to continue for a few more days. What does this prove?
Nothing. A few days or even an entire season does not make a climate. If the warming trend has reversed, we will not know for certain for at least a few more years, although a decade would be preferable.
A AGW denier who is trolling the site with disinformation? Colour me unsurprised. Just about every link I see there has been refute on RealClimate, just recently, the "Antarctica is cold!" and "The Earth was cooler this past year! ZOMG!!1! SCIENCE IZ WR0NG!11".
Deniers are remarkable in their ignorance. But I tire of them as I do YECs. No matter how many times you shoot holes in their bullshit, they move on to another out-of-context soundbite, scientist specialising in physiology dissenting from the IPCC or other total red herring to obfuscate the issue for the terminally stupid.
It'd be funny if only the planet wasn't dying thanks to it. Sorry, I mean the species. The planet is fine, to paraphrase George Carlin.
And Mr. Rapier, I wholly agree. Let the world burn. Least when we're all starving/drowning/bunkering down from superstorms, we can gloat to our heart's content. Kind've reminds me of the top brass during the Cuban missile crisis days. "If we're wrong, no one will be around to tell us we are."
RealClimate: Funded by Environmental Media Services
http://www.activistcash.com/organization_overview.cfm/oid/110
A far leftist organization with deep pocket. The site is well known for its own misinformation and censorship.
This little attempt at a smear confirms your position on GW is purely political and totally devoid of any scientific backing.
There is no mention of RealClimate in your link.
http://www.networksolutions.com/whois/results.jsp?domain=realclimate.org
Registrant Organization:Environmental Media Services
Registrant Street1:1320 18th St, NW
Registrant Street2:5th Floor
Registrant Street3:
Registrant City:Washington
Registrant State/Province:DC
Registrant Postal Code:20036
Registrant Country:US
So what. You are trying really hard to avoid the science and introduce irrelevant subjects into the discussion. Following your "logic" TOD is crap because Bush is the leader of the US.
My gosh! I have a personal site with a hosting provider. Does that mean the hosting provider is supporting me directly? Heck no! It means I am supporting the hosting provider by paying for hosting, tech support, domain services, etc.
Just because RealClimate is hosted by Environmental Media Services doesn't prove jack squat except your own ignorance about how the world wide web works. To prove support you have to prove that Environmental Media Services is giving away bandwidth or other services to RealClimate.org.
Ah, No. EMS is the REGISTERED holder of the domain name RealClimate.org, .com, and a couple other dots. In other words they OWN RealClimate. Just like I'm the registered owner of my own domain(s). My site is hosted at NetNation, but I own the domain, just like EMS owns RealClimate (And pays the fees to keep the site running). Thus, RealClimate is an offshoot of EMS and hence RealClimate is controled by EMS. If you disagree with that then you CANNOT use the argument that WorldClimateReport is owned by big oil. Either they are both the same in that regard or they are not. If RealClimate is independent then so too is WorldClimateReport and CO2Science. You can't have it both ways simply because you favour RealClimate. In fact, I'd venture to say you favour RealClimate BECAUSE it is affiliated with far left leaning organizations.
It is common for ISPs to buy domains for their customer's use. This is not necessarily in the client's best interest (because it makes it harder to move to another hosting company.
Why don't you just ask RealClimate.org to make their books public?
Guarrenteed if the shoe was on the other foot, that WorldClimateReport was owned by "Big Oil" (It's not it's owned by Tucows) there would be a flurry of comments that they are influenced by "Big Oil" and hence has an hidden agenda. You can't have it both ways.
False:
http://veritasnoctis.blogspot.com/2007/05/more-hypocrisy-realclimate-and...
More Hypocrisy: RealClimate and Funding Issues
Let's say I take him at his word that the contributors have not been paid for any reason and haven't even had a lunch bought for them. Fenton Communications is a left-liberal public relations firm that has been orchestrating Cindy Sheehan's anti-war campaign (not that I'm pro-war, I'm just saying...). Environmental Media Services is a left-liberal environmental orgnanization. Did Fenton handle RealClimate's press release free of charge or did the contributors of RealClimate pool their funds from their government paychecks to pay for the service? Does RealClimate pay EMS for hosting their blog? The author of the post doesn't say, but I would be surprised if the contributors of RealClimate paid for any of these services. If they didn't pay for these services out of their own pockets, then RealClimate has received and continues to receive the equivalent, in terms of subsidized services, of financial support from left-liberal and environmental organizations. And if they did pay for these services, why deal exclusively with left-liberal and environmental organizations?
WHY DO SO MANY OUTSPOKEN ALARMISTS HAVE NASA GODDARD CONNECTIONS?
Tom Nelson, 13 February 2008
http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2008/02/why-do-so-many-outspoken-alarmists...
1. Uber-alarmist James Hansen is head of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
2. Hansen is said to be the boss of RealClimate alarmist Gavin Schmidt at NASA GISS.
3. Gristmill alarmist Andrew Dessler says he did his post-doctoral work at NASA Goddard (at about the 40 second mark here).
4. RealClimate alarmist Eli Rabbet is said to be Josh Halpern:
Prof. Halpern is also the Co-Director of the NASA Faculty Fellowship Program at Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD in odd numbered years. This program supports about 30 faculty each year to do summer research at Goddard.
When this worldwide global warming hysteria inevitably dies, it will probably become clear that a core cause was groupthink among a surprisingly small set of people.
Is realclimate.org biased?
http://sg.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080214094138AA4BQFA
Realclimate.org is funded by Environmental Media Services, founded in 1994 by Arlie Schardt, a former journalist, former communications director for Al Gore's 2000 Presidential campaign.
EMS is closely allied with Fenton Communications.
Fenton Communications client list includes organizations associated with a diverse array of social issues, but they are most known for their work with liberal causes such as MoveOn.org and Greenpeace.
Since that is such a 'leftward' bias already, and since the 'leftward' bias of AGW and GW is pretty much a known fact.
A Little Testy at RealClimate
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/001...
Heaven forbid a discussion of actual substance over there. If we did we might have to discuss Kossin et al. and how SSTs don't covary with intensity in all basins, and the fact that Emanuel signed on to the WMO consensus, and well, a whole bunch of stuff that is fair game to discuss in scientific circles, but not apparently at RealClimate. In my view the issue of hurricanes and climate remains uncertain and contested and is well worth discussing.
That's a lot of name-calling in one post.
As for the those hefty "subsidized services," you might have read a bit further downthread:
Doesn't matter. What matters is RealClimate has definite links and umbilical cord to far leftist organizations and funding. Hence their agenda is far left, rejecting anything that does not support their view, and slanting information to support their position. I get that labeled at me when I present sites that have a right leaning slant to them. RealClimate is no different in that regard either. The vast majority of people are politically in the middle. They view radical left or right with suspecion and rightly so because both sides have an axe to grind, both sides have deep politically motivated agendas.
My purpose for exposing RealClimate's left leaning parents is that the site is not unbiased squeeky clean science driven. It's a political organization.
It's all just bunches of chattering monkeys to her.
The CO2 levels will continue to climb.
Infra Red absorption will continue to climb.
The system will tip over.
The monkeys will stop their chattering.
Peace at last.
We'll finally be giving peace a chance.
http://iacs5.ucsd.edu/~pbang/dance_monkeys.htm
Let the dancing begin. :-)
Bare assertion fallacy. You haven't demonstrated any "left leaning parents" of RealClimate. Because EMS hosts their blog, they're tools of Greenpeace?
More to the point, RealClimate echoes the overwhelming scientific consensus: fossil carbon emissions are heating the planet. Can you demonstrate that the bulk of the scientific community is on the take from the "far left"?
Well, reality has a well-known liberal bias..
I can't get over the pained look on all the faces as the audience squirmed in their chairs.... you would have thought the guy was roasting Stalin and the invited guests didn't know how to respond. I'm cracking myself up laughing and these folks looked like they're auditioning for the Stepford Wives. Unbelievable.
Cheers,
Paul
First, there is no "overwhelming scientific consensus", that's been grossly exaggerated to give AGW dogma the appearance of legitimacy. More and more once IPCC scientists are leaving the "consensus". I guarantee you that far left organizations and radical environmental groups are reaping MILLIONS in donations because of the hype in AGW. There are BILLIONS at stake here, some $50 BILLION so far in the past 20 years spent in their direction. Give it time, it will all be exposed soon.
Sigh.
You really like that proof-by-assertion fallacy, don't you?
I'm just throwing back at you what you people throw back at me "Funded by Big Oil!!" BTW, there are a large number of scientists in those organizations who have vocally stated they DO NOT support their organization's statements.
If you can't debunk their science, and you can't, you've nothing to say on the subject. Now, here's your test to see whether you are worth *anyone's* time given your radical positions, lies and distortions.
1. If CO2 has nothing to do with global warming, why do all past records show a strong correlation?
2. Since the sun is currently at a solar minimum, but Earth has been warming while getting to that solar minimum, why aren't you mentioning that? And the fact that it is heading out of the minimum after this year, if past patterns hold?
3. Why did the ice melt so much in 2005 and 2007 with the sun so weak?
4. Since CO2 is higher now than it has been in hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of years, how did it get there and why is it not important?
Here's the kicker:
5. Please explain away Hansen, et al's, recent work on climate sensitivity.
Links at the end, explanations from you. If you can't manage this, you've no business speaking on the subject.
Cheers
Answer:
Old glaciers are a wonderful repository of historical information, because past samples of earth's atmosphere are locked up in them. Coral heads and Sargasso Sea sediments also leave Carbon 14 and Oxygen 18 clues to the past temperature of the earth. We all agree that the historical CO2 curves and the temperatures curves closely match each other. But when we look very, very closely at the CO2 and temperature data, we find that increases in CO2 are actually following increases in temperature and that CO2 doesn't cause warming - warming causes CO2 to increase. We've heard several anecdotal examples of local children becoming frightened after seeing Al Gore's movie, and maybe that's why we're so angry with him. To counter that, the British High Court has ruled that the film, if shown in their schools, must be preceded by a disclaimer that it is propaganda, not a documentary.. and a specific list of inaccuracies must be included in the warning. From our point of view, we're watching a world gone mad, with everyone hustling to get a piece of the action. Politicians, radical environmentalists, and even mainstream businesses are scrambling to appear as "green" as they can - and reap of piece of the financial action sure to follow as funds are diverted from normal paths in a headlong race to save the planet. […]What is potentially more alarming, is that some of the early knee-jerk scientists that were so quick to jump on the climate panic bandwagon are now fighting desperately to save their careers by deliberately producing falsified data in a last-ditch effort to support their individual research and save their professional reputations. In our own research, we uncovered some "data" in which a CO2 curve from an ice core study was conveniently moved some 87 years up the time scale, so the desired "results" could be obtained.
http://www.middlebury.net/op-ed/global-warming-01.html
2. Since the sun is currently at a solar minimum, but Earth has been warming while getting to that solar minimum, why aren't you mentioning that? And the fact that it is heading out of the minimum after this year, if past patterns hold?
Answer: The current warm trend (which appears to have if not stopped, at least slowed down since 1998) started around 1880 and stopped in the 1940s long before the bulk of our CO2 emissions (some 70% of which has been in the past 50 years). Then dropped until about 1976 right when the CO2 levels were starting to accelarate. What caused that? What caused the Medeval Warm Period? How would one know FOR SURE that this trend is not normal. Also:
Solar data suggest our concerns should be about global cooling
Excerpt: Solar data suggest our concerns should be about global cooling. February 16th, 2008 by Warwick Hughes David Archibald’s new paper “Solar Cycle 24: Implications for the United States”, will be presented at the Heartland Institute Climate Conference in NY City, March 2-4, 2008. David points out how solar data indicates that Solar Cycle 24 which is in the early throes of commencing now, could initiate global cooling. Posted in Solar, IPCC, News and Views | 9 Responses1. julian braggins Says: February 17th, 2008 at 5:29 am
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=150
3. Why did the ice melt so much in 2005 and 2007 with the sun so weak?
Answer: Reference please to back that up.
4. Since CO2 is higher now than it has been in hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of years, how did it get there and why is it not important?
Answer: We are currently coming out of a CO2 low, the lowest it's been in HUNDREDS of millions of years. CO2 in the geological past was often 3-4 TIMES the current levels. The current low in CO2, which started some 50 million years ago, is suggested to be cause by when India collided with Asia and changed rain patterns in that region. That rain soaked in CO2 disolved the growing mountains to produce the huge carbinate deposits in the India Ocean. And, yes, I have references to back that up (it's been understood for decades).
5. Please explain away Hansen, et al's, recent work on climate sensitivity.
Answer: Don't know it, but will google and read up.
Question for you. Why has the rate of sea level rise not accelarated? To get to the dire predictions of tens of feet there would have to be several times increase in that rate, if not as much as 10 times for the real outlandish predictions. But the rate of sea level has not changed in 110 years of measurments. In fact the IPCC says there has not been any accelaration in spite of their predictions (which they have 3 times now down graded).
Your #1: A pile of reaking excrement. You cite a judge's decision that some elements of a movie were not fully "evidence?" That judge's decision, which you left out, said NOTHING about the legitimacy of global warming as an scientifically supported theory. It said a **movie** was a little off - in it's **non-scientific** OPINION.
You're a damned fool. Next you'll cite global warming swindle...
I said talk about the science.
CO2: more ignorance. CO2 has nothing to do with warming? Warming causes CO2? This is sheer stupidity. The long cycles of solar energy trigger, other forcings reinforce. There is a lag of some hundreds of years at the beginning of warming cycles. (Can you not read graphs?) I cannot believe you would even attempt to claim solar radiation alone causes GW. Who pays you?
You fail question 1.
#2 Why do you cite NONE of the evidence against solar causes presented to you on this thread? Soon and Baliunas BS "research" was discounted FOREVER AGO.
Repeating the same incorrect, narrowly cast BS you've already posted does not qualify. You've offered nothing to support what has already been shown to be false.
You fail question 2.
#3: You are unaware of the Arctic melt in 2005 and 2007? Yet you post here on the topic? The links are already on this thread.
You fail this *topic.*
#4: What the hell have the lows for CO2 to do with the current unprecedented high? And what the hell do we care whether at some far distant time when dinosaurs roamed the earth had more CO2 and more heat? How is it in any way relevant to the current situation? It was a different world at that time with different geologies, etc. Irrelevant except in that the past helps us learn how things work. It is not in any way relevant to our current condition. Our current condition has never existed before. Never before has any organism terraformed this planet and ***artificially* raised the level of GHGs.
When are fools such as yourself going to understand the relevance of AGW? It is the changes in the planet relative to **current life** on the planet. I.e., it matters not what a dinosaur can live in, but what WE can live in. Further, our terraforming of the Earth is interrupting natural cycles leaving us with no historical data upon which to base future hypotheses because **this has never happened before.**
Does the fact that for hundreds of thousands, even millions, of years CO2 never went above 300 ppm, yet now stands at 385 not register in your brain?
Another non-answer. You fail question 4.
For the love of god...
Enough. I am sick to my stomach.
>> We've heard several anecdotal examples of local children becoming frightened after seeing Al Gore's movie, and maybe that's why we're so angry with him.
Better burn some books and the Wizard of Oz, because some kids become frightened with that, too. "Oooh! I'm sooo angry with Al Gore!"
I don't need to be a meteorologist to decide who's telling the truth and who's full of it. I just read how people reason (or pretend to).
Re: The sun and CO2 levels:
Solar Cycle 24: Implications for the United States (By Geologist David Archibald of Summa Development Limited in Australia)
Excerpt: I will demonstrate that the Sun drives climate, and use that demonstrated relationship to predict the Earth’s climate to 2030. It is a prediction that differs from most in the public domain. It is a prediction of imminent cooling. […]I will show that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is not even a little bit bad. It is wholly beneficial. The more carbon dioxide we can put into the atmosphere, the better the planet will be – for humans, and all other living things. […]We have 29 years of satellite temperature data. It shows that the temperature of the Southern Hemisphere has been flat, with a slight increase in the Northern Hemisphere. Note the El Nino peak in 1998. Globally, we have had 10 years of temperature decline since that peak in 1998, with a rate of decline of 0.06 degrees per annum. I am expecting the rate of decline to accelerate to 0.2 degrees per annum from the end of this decade. That satellite record is corroborated by the record of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice extent over the same period. There is no long term trend evident. Most recently, there has been a 1 million square kilometre increase over the long term mean. This is a five per cent increase. […]The peak US temperature was in 1936, at much the same time that Total Solar Irradiance peaked. If you have wondered why US temperatures are still lower than what they were 70 years ago, the fact that Total Solar Irradiance is lower than what it was 70 years ago might provide an explanation. […]The peak of the Medieval Warm Period was 2° warmer than today and the Little Ice Age 2° colder at its worst. The total range is 4° centigrade. The warming over the 20th century was 0.6 degrees by comparison. This recent warming has melted ice on some high passes in the Swiss Alps, uncovering artifacts from the Medieval Warm Period and the prior Roman Warm Period. […]2008 is the tenth anniversary of the recent peak on global temperature in 1998. The world has been cooling at 0.06 degrees per annum since then. My prediction is that this rate of cooling will accelerate to 0.2 degrees per annum following the month of solar minimum sometime in 2009. Dr Hansen’s statement that the maximum safe level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 350 ppm begs the question of what the actual ideal level is. I have taken the 1,000 ppm figure from the level that commercial greenhouse operators prefer to run their greenhouses at. The ability to grow food is going to be the overriding concern next decade. Regarding that 1,000 ppm level, we will never get there. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have been much higher in the geological past. But most of that carbon is now bound up in the Earth’s sediments where we can’t get to it. Half of the carbon dioxide we are producing now is being gobbled up by the oceans, in soils and in the Russian tundra. At best, we might get to about 600 ppm. What I have shown in this presentation is that carbon dioxide is largely irrelevant to the Earth’s climate. The carbon dioxide that Mankind will put into the atmosphere over the next few hundred years will offset a couple of millenia of post-Holocene Optimum cooling before we plunge into the next ice age. There are no deleterious consequences of higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are wholly beneficial.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf
Uh, sorry to interrupt ... anyone else find these massive copy/paste efforts on climate inappropriate on TOD?
Anyone think non-peer reviewed, non-scientific papers should be allowed to be posted on the TOD? One that shows no sources for data? One commissioned for the Heartland Institute? Particularly one that says because greenhouses are set at 1000ppm of CO2 that is the standard for the entire ecosystem of the Earth?
How can that guy not be banned from this site?
Cheers
If people want to continue to debate anthropogenic global warming, that is, of course, their right. However, perhaps their should be a special thread set aside for just that purpose. That way, jr can cut and paste to his heart's content and those who enjoy spending their day reading his links and refuting him can also do that to their heart's content. Seems like a waste of time to me, but people deserve to waste their own time any way they feel like it.
Many of the rest of us would like to move on and discuss possible solutions and ways to mitigate the effects of global warming and peak oil. And we are supposed to believe that realclimate.org cannot be trusted because it is an extreme left wing web site. Better that we get our info from extreme right wing web sites, I guess. It's all a fucking conspiracy, ya da , ya da.
I have spent tons of time examining this issue but don't feel I should be required to study and debate this issue for the rest of my life. The potential consequences of doing nothing just seem unacceptable to me.
David Archibald (Summa Development Ltd) is associated with the Lavoisier Group - a global warming denial entity funded by the oil and coal industry. All of Australia is funded by the oil and coal industry of course, but his research and public statements are not science you can rely on.
"5. Please explain away Hansen, et al's, recent work on climate sensitivity."
http://mc-computing.com/qs/Global_Warming/Papers/Hansen_2007.html
This page discusses Climate change and trace gases by James Hansen, et al., 2007.
I don't make it a point to simply read and criticize Hansen's work ... but this paper begged for it.
In this paper, Hansen admits and then proves, beyond a reasonable doubt, that the ice core data shows that CO2 will NOT have any effect on temperature. That's right, in an effort to prove that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, Dr. Hansen provides all the evidence that anyone should need to actually prove the contrary position.
But, then he provides the solution - Just fudge the data so that it matches his theory.
...
The same Vostok ice core that defines past Antarctic temperature also reveals the history of long-lived atmospheric gases. Bubbles of air are trapped as annual snowfalls pile up and compress gradually into ice. page 3
The temperature change appears to usually lead the gas changes by typically several hundred years, as discussed below and indicated in figure 1b. This suggests that warming climate causes a net release of these GHGs by the ocean, soils and biosphere. page 4
The temperature–GHG lag is imprecise because the time required for snow to pile high enough (approx. 100 m) to seal off air bubbles is typically a few thousand years in central Antarctica. ....
Despite multiple careful studies, uncertainties in the ice–gas age differences for the Vostok ice core remain of the order of 1 kyr. ....
Data from a different Antarctic (Dome C) ice core with slightly higher snow accumulation rate ... support temperature leading GHGs by ca 600–800 years. page 4
Basically, this says that temperature change causes a change in CO2. And when you look at the plots in other sources, it is obvious that the CO2 increase did not cause any additional temperature increase. In fact, in almost all cases, an increase in CO2 is correlated with a significant temperature decrease.
You can not tell that from the graphs in Dr. Hansen's paper because he has adjusted them so that most of the major CO2 increases coincide with temperature increases - that's right, he changed the data to fit the theory. In fact, that is the purpose of his paper - to explain why he thinks he is correct in changing the data in this way.
That's right, the data proves his theory wrong, so he changes the data.
Every schoolboy who has read anything on AGW knows the Ice Age/warm interval cycles are initiated by solar cycles. This is what he is referring to. You know this. Thus, you are a liar. Or you are unable to understand simple science. Which?
The idiot you quote is NOT a scientist, he's a twit. His explanation, which you failed to note:
So, rather than read and respect the work of a man considered to be among the foremost climate scientists in the world, you take the word of a computer programmer in Florida?
Nutjobs, the both of you.
Global Warmer Hoaxer James Hansen Once Pushed Global Cooling
The Global Warming Money Trail
"Reality has a well-know liberal bias."
Stephen Colbert, putting the phrase into a conservative's mouth.
Cheers,
Davidyson
Jesus dude, you will really go out on any limb in order to try and disprove the overwhelming scientific support for AGW won't you?
"WHY DO SO MANY OUTSPOKEN ALARMISTS HAVE NASA GODDARD CONNECTIONS?"
ummm, because NASA puts up most spacecraft that can study the earth from space? Because NASA funds a lot of science (which is their job!) - because Goddard is one of the leading research centers in the US (and world)
lets see what the mission of Goddard is shall we?
"GSFC has the largest combined organization of scientists and engineers dedicated to increasing knowledge of the Earth, the Solar System, and the Universe via observations from space in the United States. GSFC is a major U.S. laboratory for developing and operating unmanned scientific spacecraft. GSFC conducts scientific investigation, development and operation of space systems, and development of related technologies."
Gosh - you were right! how nefarious! those people are INCREASING THE KNOWLEDGE OF THE EARTH VIA OBSERVATIONS FROM SPACE!!!! Somebody ought to stop this at once!
my father is a very well-known geophysicist (not an appeal to authority) - he gets much of his research $ from Goddard and NASA - does this somehow mean his work (not AGW related btw) is not to be trusted?
seriously - you are borderline out of your mind with this stuff - you may as well be spewing out Trilateral Commission crap at us as to imply there is something sinister about scientists being connected to (OH THE HORROR!) well-known scientific centers and science-oriented government agencies
I know, I know, why do I bother responding to the crazy......
Wrong question. The question to ask is, "How did any NASA scientist get published or heard on climate change given their reports were edited or withheld and they were banned from speaking publicly about climate change that supported AGW?"
Bonus question: Why has G. Dumbya Bush squashed sound science on Global Warming and done nothing about Peak Oil while living in a modern, solar-powered, off-grid home?
NOTE: it is slander or defamation or something like that to call into question a man's word when his work has been above reproach. Show me ONE peer-reviewed paper debunking any of Hansen's papers. Just one.
A quick google found this:
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=796
In fact if you go to ClimateAudit.org and search in their site you will find numerous articles challenging Hansen's "theories."
An unrefereed blog post by a guy who has a few stories in Energy & Environment? I'm not hearing the edifice of Hansen's peer-reviewed work crashing down just yet.
Then you are missing part of the story by ignoring ClimateAudit. Are the critizisms there sound? If you don't read the critizisms from other sources you are not getting a complete picture. Besides, Hansen saying we need to bulldoze all the coal fired plants is a polticial radical statement that very much strains his credibility and puts questions as to his true motives.
Please tell me his true motives.
Oh he's handed out that drivel as well
"it's all a big left-wing tree-hugger conspiracy"
or my favorite
"they lie to get all that juicy fat research money that is just pouring out for AGW research"
Yep, some $50 BILLION over the past 20 years. CitiBank has vowed to fund AGW research by an additional $50 BILLION.
Citi Targets $50 Billion Over 10 Years to Address Global Climate Change
Includes Significant Increases in Investment and Financing of Alternative Energy, Clean Technology, and Other Carbon-Emission Reduction Activities
Builds on Existing $10 Billion Climate Change Activities
http://www.citigroup.com/citigroup/press/2007/070508a.htm
Oh no, investment in alternative energy technology -- those dastardly Commies at Citi will stop at nothing to destroy Capitalism!
Well, you tell me why Hansen would want millions to freeze in the dark, and thousands die because of his desire to bulldoze all the coal plants? Does he want to cull the US population? As that's what his actions would do. Seems highly irresponsible to me. Smells of some agenda to me.
I repeat:
Now get your uneducated butt out of here.
Global Warming? New Data Shows Ice Is Back
You go to Newsmax for your science info? Why not just quote Rush "There Is No Ozone Hole" Limbaugh?
Oh, I see, just because YOU dislike the source means that the ice is not growing? Give me a break. Classic dogmatic reponse "I don't like that source so their information is a lie." I guess it will take the next IPCC report to say that the ice has returned before you accept the information as real, eh?
For data on the cryosphere, I go first to Cryosphere Today.
The Arctic ice pack is not growing; the long-term trend is clearly downward. See Nick Rouse's post upthread for the (alarming) graph.
How do you explain the current extent the largest and thickest in 15 years? Guess we will see what happens this summer. If it does not retreat as per previous years, then what? I guess you will just call it some anomally or caused by AGW. Everything that happens is because of AGW regardless, right?
This claim is false.
Images of early breakup of the Beaufort Sea ice pack:
Beaufort Sea ice pack fracture
German scientists warn of changes in Arctic Ocean circulation
The 10-20 cm sea ice thickness increase (in only a part of the ice sheet, BTW) is no longer sufficient to accumulate ice from year to year. In addition to the atmospheric warming, the sea ice has to fight warmer ocean currents. The change in the ocean circulation is the main story of the dramatic ice loss in the last few years.
Sir, don't post such things. Dontcha know this sort of rubbish proves you're a communist in cahoots with the greenies in trying to overthrow capitalism and Jesus with this filthy lies? The Cold War was lost, comrade. Let us not try and sully America and FREEDOM's victory with such attacks based on science and logic.
Now, go and consume more, there's a good materialist.
I think it's looking more and more like the West lost The Cold War as well :-(
I confess, I am a member of the reality based community and associate with members of the reality based community.
the real data is here:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg
the picture shows that the sea ice is where it was in 2005, approximately. There was one other time on the record when the sea ice anomaly changed that much: 1996/97, when the anomaly changed from -1.5 to +1. 2007/08 it changed from -3 to -0.5. This is consistent with a trend of d e c l i n i n g sea ice:
The bottoms get lower, and the tops get lower, too.