Correct me if I'm wrong but I think the plateau scenario is just one subset contained in the "peak" scenario. A peak just means you won't go any higher. Global oil production will peak (or has peaked) and it exhibits something similar to a plateau. My interpretation is that "spike" means the endless limitless improvement of technology. I don't see this as plausible. As future resource constraints continue to impact the carrying capacity of the planet, you'll have fewer resources available to support the people who develop this technology. Over the coming centuries, population will drop off and people's time will be spent on tasks dealing with the basic necessities rather than making faster computers.

TS

Salonlizard, it would be wonderful if we could stabilize the parameters of the industrial society on a plateau. Unfortunately, since we are already in overshoot, at the miniumum we must reduce the consumption of fossil fuels - that means we can't stabilize the system at the present level. But there is a more fundamental point: we have no socioeconomic or political structures that favor stabilization. On the contrary, all these structure are pushing on for more growth; the result can only be collapse. Maybe one day we'll find a way, but from the recent history we have no reason to be optimistic. Think how the authors of "The Limits to Growth" of 1972 proposed exactly what you are proposing: stabilization. They were ridiculed and demonized and nothing was done. Little hope, I'd say.