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134 comments on The Spike and the Peak
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134 comments on The Spike and the Peak
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Moore's law probably doesn't have much juice left; new chips use exotic materials such as hafnium which is in short supply, one study suggested we only have enough until 2017. Also a corollary of the law is that computers both get smaller and faster but this is not happening, netbooks for example. So even if the 'law' could go on, it is doubtful that the market will support it - we are at 'good enough' computing for most.
as you mention, there is a lot of growth of 'information', but most of that is currently YouTube and P2P file sharing, maybe 45% of all traffic are these two items. One must wonder if this could be considered 'progress'; as you allude, we are probably just filling up space to fill up space.
Can IT save us from ourselves? It's a good question, particularly when the entire industry sits second seat to social, political, and cultural issues that are of greater concerns. There are at least two camps here, the Kunstlerites and Kurzweilians, the former is more realistic for me.
Ugo wrote:
Sorry Ugo, but that is just not the case anymore. The exponential growth in computing power has been slowing for some time now and there is no doubt it will soon stop completely. The problem is silicone. You can make silicone only so thin before the current overheats it and burns it up. That problem was overcome in the past by lowering the voltage and reducing the current with each new generation of chips as each circuit got thinner and thinner. Now each circuit is about as small or thin as it can get without even the tiny currents they currently carry burns them up.
A search went out to find "something else" other than silicone to make chips from. A breakthrough was thought to be found by Bell Labs but the scientist who made the breakthrough, J. Hendrik Schön, was found to have faked the data. Now there is nothing on the horizon that is expected to replace silicone and save Moore's from hitting a brick wall. The speed of the computer cannot increase much more and each circuit in the chip cannot get much smaller.
Moore's Law, better described as "Moore's Observation" has been tailing off in recent years, increasing but at a much slower rate, and will very soon come to a complete stop. Computers will keep working but Moor's Law will not stay alive.
Jan Hendrik Schön
Ron Patterson
The problem is not silicone nor limits of whatever physical. A von Nemann computer is a formally deciding machine ( not : system) and is therefore limited pretty much harder.
Most human decision is not formal it is
"intuitive". von Neumann computing lacks "gut feeling" as well as "ideas".
So intelligence is rather non sequitur -
the new idea is not consistent with the problem.
That is human and most possibly animal
solution finding is not logical.
So far there is no such thing as artificial intelligence.
That would require a not formal theory of context.
Hahfran, we are talking apples and oranges here. I, or we, are talking about computing power, or the speed and physical size of computers as programmable data processors. And here, as far as Moore's Law is concerned, the problem is silicon or rather the limits of silicon.
You are discussing something else entirely. You are speaking of computers as thinking machines that may someday replace humans and all the innate capacities the human mind possess. That is another matter altogether and I would never argue with you on that point. Computers will never possess these capabilities. But Moore's Law has nothing to do with this concept, but only computers as programmable data processors.
Ron Patterson
Partly agreed.
As everyone has the subject of peak of a physical ressource apparently no one is concerned about peak of human ressources.
Outsourcing workload at first is profitable but second one loses skill which grows abroad.
I think that the idea to keep research and development and source out only mechanical repetitive work will fail.
It has already failed in Switzerland.
Their industry depends on continued influx of skill of all kind inclusive of engineering and research experts.
Because as the basic is lost the upper class- so to speak - runs out of ideas.
Manufacturing quality deteriorates and eventually the profit from outsourcing
is lost in extended cost of qualtity control and engineering , rework, and loss of market share.
But the skill is gone.
IMO the way of thinking predominant in a technologically advanced society is already algorithmic. It may be clever algorithms but insofar computers can replace humans because the latter are on their intellectual way down.
Recently a friend adivised me a book written by O'Shea an US mathematician. I said no I am familiar with topology. But he kept on insisting. I read it and I am perplexed. This man has an incredible educational talent. But he is a rare exception.
Thus I am far more worried about peak education than about peak oil and that like.
What people fail to realize is that any AI will have the same mental limitations (and diseases) any human being has, and therefore will act in similar ways. Of course an AI will be non-corporial (less-corporeal at first, until it's computer systems are truly everywhere).
There is, however, no problem whatsoever with simulating a large, very humanlike AI on von Neumann processors. It's not as fast as it might be given optimal hardware, but that goes for everything. Certainly the most useful computers are von neumann computers.
Probably not, however I find this guy's work rather interesting.
Link
Jeff Hawkins
Numenta
November 2, 2007
Jeff Hawkins is the founder of two computer companies, Palm and Handspring, and the designer of many computing products including the PalmPilot and Treo Smartphone. He also founded and ran the nonprofit Redwood Neuroscience Institute (now part of UC Berkeley) and founded the for-profit Numenta, which is developing a new technology, Hierarchical Temporal Memory, based on neocortical memory architecture. Hawkins has a BSEE from Cornell University. He was elected to the National Academy of Engineers in 2003.
Yes. His book with Sandra Blakeslee On Intelligence is worth reading, he's a smart guy, and gives a good talk if you get a chanced to hear him. This is worth keeping an eye on, if for no other reason than it might lead to parallel algorithms amenable to serious hardware acceleration, in the same way (but in opposite direction) as has has occurred with 3D graphics.
Most AI has really not gotten very far, although there are some useful expert systems around (but those are not general AI in the sense that most people think). In chess & checkers, brute force essentially won over AI, just as Ken Thompson predicted in early 1980s.
Jeff's approach is at least interesting and different.
See also: Cyc.
Well, all the data I could find say that Moore's law is still going on. Of course, nothing can go on exponentially forever - I think we'll see chips growing in power for several years; maybe not exponentially any more, but still getting more powerful. Then, there are innovations that might revolutionize the field and start a new and even faster exponential spike - quantum computing for instance. In the end, however, this is not the point. The point is what we are going to do with all this computing power. I argue in my text that better computers are simply taking us to hell faster. Quantum computers are not going to help much, if this is the case.
I must admit I can hardly find somebody I would agree more with than Ugo (da Vinci)!
Better to have internet in hell than telegraph in heaven.
How about calculating & simulating how to do fusion ? if that works, we're back at 1960's
Sorry to be anal about this but silicon is the semiconducting metal that makes most of modern computing possible where as silicone is a polymer using a silicon and oxygen backbone most commonly used to seal the edges of baths.
Actually silicon is much more than a semiconductive element. Germanium is also a Group IV semiconductive element. But silicon is magic. First because it is abundant in the Earth's crust and thus cheap. Second because it so easily forms into crystals. Third because when you burn silicon (Si) in pure oxygen (O2) you get this amazing electrical insulator (SiO2) --also known as glass. Fourth because one particular metal, aluminum (Al) naturally adheres to SiO2. It is this coincidence of amazing characteristics plus the wonders of photolithography that bought us what we take for granted now a days, the microprocessor chip.
If Si was also a direct bandgap, that would be amazing!
It might have been a typo, but just to get even more anal, silicon is not a metal its a semiconducting element as is carbon and germanium. They are somtimes described as "semi metals".
I think Darwinian is on to something, but I have recently read a report that states (paraphrased) "the transistors are getting so close together now that tiny impurities in the crystal latice are starting to introduce transistor failures and the reliability of integrating circuits is being compromised".
I cannot comprehend how these devices are made, its miraculous really.
As for drawing a line under progress, I think we have gone far enough too but its hard (or even impossible)to win that argument. You loose on the grounds that "with that attitude we would still be in caves". So progress continues until nature draws the line for us, I suppose.
Don't forget Breast Implants!
;-)
haha! i recently saw a shirt made for babies at Nashville airport, the front of it said:
"mmm....boobies", i need to stop and ask if that shirt comes in adult size!
This is why Intel and AMD are not offering any new technology below 0.8 Micron instead launching Dual Core and Quad Core using the the last genuine drop in cricuit size off the PENTIUM 4
Hate to bring you up to date but microns (10^-6 meters) are so yesterday. We're doing double digit nanometers (10^-9 meters) now a days. That's just two orders of magnitude above the width of single atoms (measured in Angstroms or 10^-10 meters).
And I suspect that the width of a single atom represents a hard ceiling, beyond which we cannot go. That is the absolute limit that will kill Moore's law.
0.8 microns is 800nm. That was a very long time ago.
Umm, well before we had transistors no-one would have thought you could go beyond some speed in valve switching. Perhaps we will stop using transistors and use some new invention not yet discovered which does not depend on silicon? You may see this as unlikely, but given that is has happened at least once before in this particular field I don't see any evidence for this. Saying nothing can replace silicon is a bit like Lord Kelvin in 1900 making the following statement:
"There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now."
He believed only refinements in measurement were left to be made. This was before relativity, quantum theories, subatomic particles etc.
No new technology is "on the horizon" before it is discovered, if it was, we wouldn't have to discover it!
Seems to me that before making absolute pronouncements on the future of electronics chips, one should learn the difference between silicone (caulking, implants) and silicon (computer chips, etc.)
I think moore's law is showing its limits right now, at least in the CPU realm. Since they're unable to squeeze much more performance out of single processor cores anymore, the "solution" has been to move towards multi-core chips.
These are presented as single units because they're contained on the same die, but structurally they're more like separate processors that are just very tightly meshed(at the die level instead of the mainboard level). Technically if you view the multi-core chips as a single processor the transistor count is still doubling, but I think that violates the spirit, if not the letter of moore's law.
Distributing units of work amongst parallel CPUs has the same effect as hiring more officials. At a certain point
the administrative effort to share workload exceeds added processing power.
So theoretically the limit of n in n core CPU chips is well established. It is 8.
if one wants more the applications had to be thoroughly re-programmed.
For the performance of normal PCs that most people can afford, this whole discussion is utterly irrelevant and has been for about a decade.
CPU speed might be 2.4MHz or more, and the advertised memory speed might be 833MHz or more, but memory (and even cache) is so awful that the actual effective memory speed will be maybe 150MHz at the sustained very best, and well below 15MHz and as low as 6MHz with certain sequences. The core spends most of its time, as it were, standing in line while the memory is perpetually out to lunch or hiding somewhere, as if the PC were some sort of miniature DMV office.
Added cores may shorten a few operations slightly, but mostly they will be just be sales-pitch gimmicks that just sit there waiting on the memory while consuming electricity. This is why software that actually needs to compute intensively, such as, say FPGA design software, may need ferociously expensive "hardware accelerators" when it's used on a large job. The CPU cores probably could do the job, but the memory trots along leisurely in some bygone era.
The problem is that since, say, 1980, memory access time for normal, affordable chips, has improved from around 80 nanoseconds to around 5 or 7. That's it. (And 32-bit Windows on Intel-style chips does two non-useful "descriptor" fetches for every real fetch; one of those is usually cached, so call that 10 or 14 nanoseconds.) The very high speeds given in data sheets are mainly trickery, so complex that the explanations occupy many dozens of densely filled pages. The tricks work when the memory is accessed in continuous rigid lockstep sequence. That happens in contrived "benchmarks", but not so much in real computing with real software. Once the sequence is broken, the same tricks slow things to a crawl, accounting for the sub-15MHz performance under the right (i.e. wrong) conditions.
What has improved tremendously is the density of dead storage. So you can store lots of songs or videos on your PDA, which is nice (but doesn't address "performance".) Playing back audio is rather undemanding, and even video on a tiny low-res screen is only moderately demanding. The utter lack of improvement in memory speed is not really an obstacle there.
"CPU speed might be 2.4MHz"
Do you mean GHz?
The one area in a typical PC where adding cores has helped is in graphics. When a two megapixel display is updated sixty times a second, there are about 120,000,000 independent calculations to make in each second. It is easy to spread these out among dozens of cores, because they are independent.
In graphics, as the speed of calculation becomes faster and faster by comparison with memory, increasingly many calculations tend to be done between each "texture fetch" (memory read.)
True. Multis do well when the problem to be solved is simply crunching through a big pile of independent calculations, and the work is easily divided and conquered. So multicore video card GPUs make sense. CPUs tend to do more branched logic, where the results of one calculation are required for the next to start, so they don't have as much opportunity to really let fly with parallel execution.
For years chips stayed single core despite no technical obstruction I'm aware of to building multicores (I'm sure multis were out there but the desktop market stayed with one core). Seems greater general performance increases could be gained by speeding a single core up - they only moved to multis when they reached a speed limit on that single core. That's why it sort of feels like they're "cheating" on moore's law with the multis.
As regards raw performance, as mentioned above slow memory speed is screwing things up tremendously, and the sheer amount of useless bloat on the software end probably saps more performance than anything.
One more time:
Moore's "Law" is about density, not about speed, it just happened that we kept getting more speed from transistors that switched faster because they were smaller. For years now, designers have been up against wire delays [which is not particularly speed-of-light-in-wire issue, but "RC delay"].
People were building parallel multiprocessors from microprocessors from the mid-1980s onward, and we were all expecting to do multi-cores when the time was ripe.
First, people needed enough die space to get on one die:
- CPU
- FPU
- first-level caches
- (sometimes) control for external caches
- (sometimes) 64-bittedness
That happened by the early 1990s, as in 1991's MIPS R4000.
By the mid-1990s, the extra die space from Moore's Law got used in micro--architectural complexity like out-of-order speculative-execution chips, primarily to attack the memory latency problem. Hardly anyone built multi-cores at that point because:
a) One could could get more performance at low cost by increasing sizes of on-chip cache memories, memory management units, adding other extra functional units, etc. Any serious designer was evaluating multi-core designs in the early 1990s, and in general, it just was not yet a good idea, but it wasn't because we weren't thinking about it and knowing it was coming.
b) All of that worked fine for uniprocessor performance, and hence for (relatively high-volume) desktops.
c) AND, if anyone were serious about multiprocessors, they were building machines with 4-, 8- ... 128, 256 CPUs, and just going to 2-cores wasn't very useful - you had to do all the rest of the work anyway. In any case, there's a program-dependent limit on the number of cores/CPUs that can usefully share a single memory bus.
d) THEN, as usual, there are diminishing returns. When it takes a lot of design complexity and die area to get 1% performance from architecture, you stop doing that. In addition, a single, complex CPU on a big chip has a lot of long wires, and long wires are Bad. By backing off the complexity, one can get 2 cores on a chip, and the fast signals are kept in smaller, more localized spaces, i.e., shorter wires.
Power usage and cooling issues returned with a vengeance, after the happy period in which CMOS replaced water-cooled Bipolar mainframes, and used so much less power that you could get away with really easy air-cooling, such that:
- Laptops got more popular, and battery life mattered.
- Even for desktops and servers, energy use and cooling matter. In particular, it isn't just a question of extracting the total heat, it's the need to cool the *hottest* spot on a chip, and designers rearrange chip floorplans due to the need to spread the heat more evenly. Even in the mid-1990s, systems designers were starting to struggle with difficult heat-extraction problems for large CMOS systems.
Anyway, no one is *cheating* on Moore's Law :-) and we've still got a few more rounds of it for CMOS, albeit not many. After that, it's very unclear. Fortunately, there are many high-value applications that use very cheap, relatively slow micros, and Moore's Law helps them.
Ah! So they're not being as naughty as I had suspected. A very interesting lesson in chip design history - thanks!
I do remember seeing multi-CPU (rather than multi-core) designs in the 90s. I once saw an ad for a desktop way back in the day that had dual Pentium 200s in it and that seemed like an unbelievable amount of horsepower.
Still, even given a pure density perspective, the end is at least in sight for the law(5-10 years maybe?) as we approach atom-sized transistors. That seems like a pretty solid ceiling, unless some newfangled sub-atomic transistor is invented soon.
Of course, by then we may have the whole quantum thing up and running. What are the odds the NSA already has a working model? :-)
5-10 years: see pp.15-18 of the ITRS roadmap I mentioned in an earlier post.
Actually, people have been doing work on recording bits via electron spins and nuclei of atoms, but that is still really Research, so we'll see if it actually ever gets somewhere practical. AS for continually shrinking data, for amusement I recommend the famous short science-fiction story Ms Fnd in a Lbry.