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134 comments on The Spike and the Peak

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ToucanSanctuary on February 8, 2009 - 11:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think the plateau scenario is just one subset contained in the "peak" scenario. A peak just means you won't go any higher. Global oil production will peak (or has peaked) and it exhibits something similar to a plateau. My interpretation is that "spike" means the endless limitless improvement of technology. I don't see this as plausible. As future resource constraints continue to impact the carrying capacity of the planet, you'll have fewer resources available to support the people who develop this technology. Over the coming centuries, population will drop off and people's time will be spent on tasks dealing with the basic necessities rather than making faster computers.

TS

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salonlizard on February 8, 2009 - 12:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

In the long, long run we're all dead. That includes humanity. And the Sun, and probably the Universe itself. But speaking in terms of interest to ourselves and our descendants, it seeems "stabilization" would be an option.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think the plateau scenario is just one subset contained in the "peak" scenario.

Not necessarily - properly speaking a logistics curve just approaches a maximum asymptotic value. The derivative of the curve doesn't go negative.

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134 comments on The Spike and the Peak

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