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134 comments on The Spike and the Peak

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Ugo Bardi on February 9, 2009 - 9:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Salonlizard, it would be wonderful if we could stabilize the parameters of the industrial society on a plateau. Unfortunately, since we are already in overshoot, at the miniumum we must reduce the consumption of fossil fuels - that means we can't stabilize the system at the present level. But there is a more fundamental point: we have no socioeconomic or political structures that favor stabilization. On the contrary, all these structure are pushing on for more growth; the result can only be collapse. Maybe one day we'll find a way, but from the recent history we have no reason to be optimistic. Think how the authors of "The Limits to Growth" of 1972 proposed exactly what you are proposing: stabilization. They were ridiculed and demonized and nothing was done. Little hope, I'd say.

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WebHubbleTelescope on February 9, 2009 - 2:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think SalonLizard is confused by the plateau of the cumulative oil production with the plateau of instantaneous production. He is talking about the plateasu of the s-curve which will eventually happen. Right now, we are concerned about a plateau of the current levels of production. Something tells me he is missing that distinction. I don't think he understands how hard it is to maintain a production plateau.

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134 comments on The Spike and the Peak

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