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| Climate Code Red: The Case for a Sustainability Emergency | The Oil Drum | Driving a Taxi is getting to be tougher | |
k Nation (Jim Kunstler)
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Six Years of College Costs
I believe that 2008 will be the approximate all time record for US high school graduates—resulting in vast numbers of high school graduates trying to get into, and finance, college.
If they go to graduate school, or if they take their time getting a four year degree, they are looking at about six years of college costs.
Consider that at our current rate of consumption of crude oil (C+C), we will burn through about 160 Gb of crude oil in six years, which is about one-sixth of our remaining conventional crude oil reserves, based on the HL method.
Furthermore, right around the time frame that they would be graduating into the workforce, around 2015, our middle case is that it would take 100% of the net oil exports from the current top five net oil exporters, just to meed current US net import demand.
Also consider the consequences of borrowing money going into an overall deflationary environment—compounded by price increases in food & energy. Following is an excerpt from today’s NYT. Their final refinancing, in 2004, was used to pay for their daughter’s college costs. They are probably going to lose their home in foreclosure proceedings.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/business/12credit.html?_r=1&hp&oref=sl...
Mortgage Crisis Spreads Past Subprime Loans
We've already hit "peak degrees" here in Maine, with over twenty degrees where I work about to be axed.
The Great Correction is here.
My about-to-graduate niece recently informed me that she has a thirty thousand dollar credit card debt.
I'm in shock. I managed to work my way through school and incur only a 600 dollar loan debt.
30k isn't too bad if it's her only debt. A coworker recently told me his niece graduated with 100k in debt. Her major? Communications. I just looked at him in disbelief when he told me that. Also, I have a friend who racked up 70k+ in debt with a major in philosophy. It boggles the mind.
My niece's degree--goddess help us: sports medicine.
I'm encouraging her to divert into emergency medicine, but she has thought of moving to Maine and getting a graduate degree in environmental science.
Sorry, Rachel. That's getting cut.
I do know that she makes a good farm laborer.
I don't see the problem. Injuries from physical work are similiar to sports injuries. I can't do farm work because I twisted my ankle taking dirty laundry to the garage. If I had twisted it playing tennis it would be a sports injury.
I agree. Medicine is medicine. And sports medicine could be quite lucrative if the collapse is slower to arrive than many here expect.
It might be lucrative anyway. People need their bread and circuses, especially in hard times.
Oh, I agree! I just think she needs to axe the "sports" part.
I don't. There's big bucks to made there. What if BAU goes on for another couple of decades? It's possible.
Even if TSHTF...entertainment may do quite well for a long time. Hollywood did just fine during the Great Depression. People needed an escape more than ever.
It's possible for BAU to continue for decades in the same way that it's possible to run through a solid brick wall and end up whole and undamaged on the other side.
Overshoot, hundreds of energy slave hours per person, the relaxation oscillator, resistance against inertia, etc.
Then again, what with our reality containing things like the magic bullet that killed Kennedy, or buildings collapsing against the paths of greatest resistance, yeah, it's possible.
From the story above: Simmons v Saudis, Round 2
Do you believe CERA or Simmons ?
p.s everytime you say inertia I think you mean momentum. BAU has massive momentum, but the 'inertia' of BAU will end when the appropriate outside force is applied to it.
I think it's possible that both CERA and Simmons are wrong. The evidence so far suggests that may be the case. Saudi production didn't crash, but neither is it increasing.
And even if Simmons is right, that doesn't mean society will collapse overnight.
In short, I think it's possible that the force is not enough to overcome the inertia. At least, not right away.
It's looking like peak oil was almost three years ago. And for some people, it's certainly been as bad as we feared. But not for us. I think it's possible it will go on this way for a lot longer.
One possible hypothesis might be that the Saudis have a few aces up their sleeve (possible with robes?) that they have done a very good job of hiding. Rather than pumping all they possibly can, they are purposely holding back to conserve their resources for the long term. They might have their own SPR, one that hardly anyone knows about.
It makes little difference whether the Saudis have maxed out because they CAN'T pump anymore, or because they WON'T pump anymore. The bottom line is that they ARE NOT pumpling any more.
I think it's possible that they can't pump more...at the moment. Maybe they can raise production, but it's not as easy as just turning the spigot. It requires time, resources, and billions in investment, and they were caught flat-footed.
P.S. And I think it does matter whether they can't pump more, or won't pump more. If they can't, production may be about to fall off a cliff. If they can, the plateau could go on for a lot longer.
Yup. The difference between an inconvience [still with longer term ugly overtones] and the beginning of the TEOWAWKI.
Yes, when I think about it a bit harder, I know what you mean. I first learned of peak oil in March 05. And now, 3 years later, events in the world are nowhere near as bad as I was fearing they probably would be by now. But then again... don't forget more things happen geometrically that arithmetically in the real world.
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128....
not
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8....
So if 100 is calamity on the disaster scale, we might get there faster than people who think arithmetically realize...
Take prices. For instance gasoline.
Geometric, increasing 20% per year starting at $1
Has there been a paradigm shift to geometrically increasing fuel and oil prices? Perhaps, but I can understand how a significant recession might alter this trend.
Other things that ARE increasing geometrically:
World homo sapiens population, food demand, oil demand, water demand, electricity demand.....
This is also why I don't believe in production "plateaus", unless it is happening because an oil field is being produced at below it's maximum theoretical rate, due to infrastructure constraints, or, shock horror, wise production practices designed to maximize overall recovery. I believe that Saudi Arabia is at the beginning of a geometric production decline, not an artificial plateau. But I hope I am wrong, time will tell.
A more accurate statement of the current situation might be: "it's looking like we've been on the peak oil plateau for almost three years."
Framed correctly, one naturally will ask: "how much longer can we expect to remain on this plateau?" For a nation that imports two thirds of its oil, the answer is "not long!" (three to five years perhaps).
What it boils down to is this: if westexas & Khebab are even remotely on target, it will NOT "go on this way for a lot longer."
b3NDZ3La
You're right, she needs to change majors. Sports medicine is a completely worthless degree, you cannot get a job with it. if she really likes that area she'd be much better off getting a degree in physical therapy or occupational therapy. the training is a lot better and more practical too. Medicare and many private insurers do not cover therapy even from persons with athletic trainer degrees, let alone the more generic "sports medicine". Exercise physiology is another one where many students think it's really interesting, something they enjoy, etc. but there are very few job paths available with such a degree.
Phineas Gage, MD
I'm sure a sports medicine specialist can treat repetitive stress injuries from weed pulling and wood cutting :)........ new sports in the post FF era
Think trepanning will make a comeback, Phin?
Actually, the exact same procedure is more or less still used today but we call it a "burr hole". the procedure is used almost exclusively for the drainage of hematomas. For the most part, the procedure is no longer done to release demons or spirits since the insurance reimbursement for that diagnosis is so poor ;-).
But seriously, I think we'll have to rely more on lower tech solutions. Frankly many of the higher tech treatments we do today are enormously more expensive and only add a marginal improvement over the more traditional treatment being replaced.
For example, a recent large study showed that age-old blood pressure medications (pennies a day) worked just as well at lowering BP and reducing heart attacks as the newer more expensive brand drugs (dollars a day). we need to do more of that kind of research.
My assumption was that sports medicine was a medical specialty that required an MD, intership. residency.
There's a bachelor's degree in sports medicine available at most universities and colleges. It qualifies you for essentially nothing. You cannot work as a therapist, you cannot work as an athletic trainer. You can work as a exercise consultant or personal trainer but that's about it, and frankly anybody can call themselves a personal trainer and charge $10 or $20 an hour if someone is willing to pay them to do that. It's probably not a bad degree for an athlete who plans to go into a career in coaching, I suppose.
To be a sports medicine physician requires 4 years of college, 4 years of medical school and at least 3 years of specialty training after medical school. To be board certified in sports medicine usually requires at least one extra year of subspecialty training. Many doctors (and chiropractors) will use the label sports medicine without ever doing the additional sub-specialty training. These physicians should not be using the term "board certified in sports medicine".
Of course, right now we're also at "Peak Credentials". How well and for how long the licensing laws will continue to be enforced is uncertain.
That's probably correct.
Feds, lenders to offer broader plan to help with foreclosures
That was being discussed today on BNN. Suspending foreclosures, or essentually a moritotium on foreclosures. The main concern was that default rates have doubled in recent months, and if the US slides into ressession that the rate will increase. The big worry is that having to many evictions and empty homes on the market that house prices will fall further, cascading into even more foreclosures. One wonders though, as the payments will have to be made up some how, the longer the foreclosure moritorium the more money these people owe. Or will it just be written off?
Also, what is the incentive to pay your mortgage if you know the bank won't foreclose? I think this would make the delinquency problem much worse, though it might solve the walk-away problem (why walk away, when you can just stop paying and stay where you are?).
I wonder if this is analogous to a consumer not wanting to open the bills from the credit card companies, because they don't want to know how much they owe.
Perhaps the banks are trying to postpone finding out--and having to report--how bad it is getting. There have already been some reports (on The Housing Bubble Blog) of some banks not making any move to initiate foreclosure proceedings in California.
As I explain in today's The Automatic Earth: Debt Rattle February 12 2008, the banks are running into ever more problems. The changes in auditing rules are one recent addition to their headaches, but there is one that comes out of left field for just about everyone, courtesy of Lee Adler. The Fed is not adding liquidity, it's withdrawing it at lightning speed.
Fresh from the press, more gaping emptiness (note that the Hope Now Alliance died today after a short and painful life in the incubator):
Paulson, U.S. Banks Forge 30-Day Foreclosure-Freeze Deal
The Automatic Earth
On the other hand, I plan on going to the technical college for small engine repair classes. I can imagine in our decline, we will attempt to hang onto personal mobility through the eventual migration to smaller vehicles, and in many cases scooters and motorcycles. Not only that, but it will be handy for my own motorcycle.
Other courses I intend on taking will be agriculture courses.
~Durandal(http://www.wtdwtshtf.com)
One important point is that the worst possible case is to decide to go to college, decide that it needs to be heavily peak-prepared and pick something "useful" you don't really like and then get a poor degree, or even not graduate, because you really lack any interest in the subject whilst still accumulating a modest level of debt.
I'd strongly caution anyone thinking their area of study "ought to be x" to consider very carefully if they actually enjoy x before committing. People away from college age tend to forget how hard it is to keep continually cracking open the books even in a subject you do enjoy. Now if your interests and "what you ought to do" coincide you're lucky and have covered all bases.
(Speaking as a mathematics graduate 10 years ago, a subject that's quite useful in and to current society, but which will decline in utility the more resource constraints "deindustrialise" the world.)
It is wisest to assume that, whatever degree/career path one selects initially, one will be changing career paths in the future, perhaps several times. The person who can enter into a career path and work in it without major retooling along the way is becoming quite rare. It is likely to be even more rare in the future.
Learning how to learn may be the most important thing one can learn.