One possible hypothesis might be that the Saudis have a few aces up their sleeve (possible with robes?) that they have done a very good job of hiding. Rather than pumping all they possibly can, they are purposely holding back to conserve their resources for the long term. They might have their own SPR, one that hardly anyone knows about.

It makes little difference whether the Saudis have maxed out because they CAN'T pump anymore, or because they WON'T pump anymore. The bottom line is that they ARE NOT pumpling any more.

Yes, when I think about it a bit harder, I know what you mean. I first learned of peak oil in March 05. And now, 3 years later, events in the world are nowhere near as bad as I was fearing they probably would be by now. But then again... don't forget more things happen geometrically that arithmetically in the real world.

1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128....

not

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8....

So if 100 is calamity on the disaster scale, we might get there faster than people who think arithmetically realize...

Take prices. For instance gasoline.
Geometric, increasing 20% per year starting at $1

Has there been a paradigm shift to geometrically increasing fuel and oil prices? Perhaps, but I can understand how a significant recession might alter this trend.
Other things that ARE increasing geometrically:
World homo sapiens population, food demand, oil demand, water demand, electricity demand.....

This is also why I don't believe in production "plateaus", unless it is happening because an oil field is being produced at below it's maximum theoretical rate, due to infrastructure constraints, or, shock horror, wise production practices designed to maximize overall recovery. I believe that Saudi Arabia is at the beginning of a geometric production decline, not an artificial plateau. But I hope I am wrong, time will tell.

It's looking like peak oil was almost three years ago. And for some people, it's certainly been as bad as we feared. But not for us. I think it's possible it will go on this way for a lot longer.

A more accurate statement of the current situation might be: "it's looking like we've been on the peak oil plateau for almost three years."

Framed correctly, one naturally will ask: "how much longer can we expect to remain on this plateau?" For a nation that imports two thirds of its oil, the answer is "not long!" (three to five years perhaps).

What it boils down to is this: if westexas & Khebab are even remotely on target, it will NOT "go on this way for a lot longer."

As oil exporting nations experience both declining oil production and increased domestic oil consumption, they will reduce oil exports to the U.S. Because the U.S. is highly dependent on imported oil for transportation, food production, industry, and residential heating, the nation will experience the impacts of declining oil supplies sooner and more severely than much of the world. Peak Oil: Alternatives, Renewables, And Impacts