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303 comments on Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock

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westexas on February 13, 2008 - 11:52pm

I think that it is useful to look at the cumulative shortfall between what the world would have produced at the 5/05 rate and what we actually produced--on the order of 770 mb (EIA, C+C) through 11/07--despite oil prices trading in the highest nominal range in history, all while Daniel Yergin has constantly been assuring us that oil prices would be coming down, because of a flood of new oil production.

Also, insofar as I know the Yergin crowd is pretty much ignoring the Net Export aspect. Consider our "What If" scenario for Saudi Arabia. What if they maintained their 2005 production rate of about 11 mbpd (Total Liquids)? At their 2005 to 2006 rate of increase in consumption, their net exports would approach zero around 2036.

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Nate Hagens on February 13, 2008 - 11:59pm

The costs to find and procure energy (liquids) are going up faster than the consumer demand for oil. A meaningful % of internal Saud oil and gas demand must go towards finding and developing oil projects. If this trend continues 2036 will be optimist. In other words, your Net Export theory doesn't explicitly address the continuing trend of depletion trumping technology.

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westexas on February 14, 2008 - 8:04am

Of course, Khebab's middle case is that Saudi Arabia approaches zero net exports in 2031, within a time frame from 2024 to 2037.

I estimate that if the Saudis wanted, and were able, to match their 2005 net export rate, they would have to kick their 2008 total liquids production up to about 11.7 mbpd in 2008, versus about 11 mbpd in 2005.

The flat line Saudi graph illustrates what could plausibly happen to net exports even under the Economist Magazine's assertion that Saudi Arabia could maintain their 2005 rate of production for 70 years.

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Lucifer on February 17, 2008 - 10:26pm

Black Friday

March 7 2008 11:30 am ( NY time )

BOOM

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