 | World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE - Update Feb 2008 | The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: February 18, 2008 |  |
303 comments on Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock
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The costs to find and procure energy (liquids) are going up faster than the consumer demand for oil. A meaningful % of internal Saud oil and gas demand must go towards finding and developing oil projects. If this trend continues 2036 will be optimist. In other words, your Net Export theory doesn't explicitly address the continuing trend of depletion trumping technology.
Of course, Khebab's middle case is that Saudi Arabia approaches zero net exports in 2031, within a time frame from 2024 to 2037.
I estimate that if the Saudis wanted, and were able, to match their 2005 net export rate, they would have to kick their 2008 total liquids production up to about 11.7 mbpd in 2008, versus about 11 mbpd in 2005.
The flat line Saudi graph illustrates what could plausibly happen to net exports even under the Economist Magazine's assertion that Saudi Arabia could maintain their 2005 rate of production for 70 years.
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March 7 2008 11:30 am ( NY time )
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