The Oil Drum | Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock

303 comments on Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock

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Kiashu on February 14, 2008 - 3:17am

The people at CERA predict oil production for a living, Kunstler and the like do it as a hobby.

Two men make a prediction about my health at different times, and each turns out to be wrong. One is a doctor, the other is a former boy scout who took lots of first aid classes. Which one should I have the most scorn for?

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luisdias on February 14, 2008 - 1:35pm

you're kiddin, right? Kunstler is a teacher and teaches his ideology to his students. If that is not "professional", then I wonder how incompetent he is, daring to teach such "hobbyistic" stupiddity and horror to the kids as some kind of an atheist form of apocalypse, an atheist version of coming hell.

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jewishfarmer on February 14, 2008 - 2:28pm

Can we distinguish between the predictions of Petroleum Geologists themselves and those who have taken one set of predictions or another to then make judgements about future practices?

Kunstler is a journalist, and a number of other PO figures mentioned are also not geologists. They have made a choice to believe the analysis of one set of geological predictions, much, for example, as those who run the US government have chosen to believe another (manifestly). In fact, nearly everyone in the rich world has chosen to believe one set of predictions or another, whether cornucopian (most) or depletionist (a growing number). We prove those beliefs when we live our lives as though the party is going to end or continue.

But saying that Kunstler, or George W. Bush or JimBob down at the Diner have chosen to make larger societal predictions based on geological analysis was inaccurate in their predictions about petroleum geology is ridiculous - they don't make any. The predicate their assumptions on one set of scientists or another, and postulate from there. But that's not the same thing as comparing two sets of scientists of similar qualifications and comparing *their* analysis.

So anyone who attempts to bring popular writers into the mix and point to them as "inaccurate" is simply raising a distracting red herring, and not a very compelling one.

Sharon

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luisdias on February 15, 2008 - 10:40am

That's false. If Kunstler is a journalist, he is an incompetent one. He doesn't "predicate [his] assumptions on one set of scientists or another, and postulate from there", he simply has dictated that the end is nigh, and only thereafter he goes on to chose his preferred method of how it gonna happen, nitpicking the worst of the worst from his own set of choices...

But then again, who cares?

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Moe_Gamble on February 14, 2008 - 2:48pm

Wrong, luisdias. Kunstler is a muckraker, not an oil analyst, stock market analyst, or even a teacher. There is a long tradition of muckraking in the U.S., and he is brilliant at it. He has probably done more than anyone else to get info out to the masses about peak oil, and he's definitely more right than wrong on this issue.

Not only that, but he's an incredibly entertaining writer.

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PigglyWiggly on February 14, 2008 - 4:26pm

There is a long tradition of muckraking in the U.S., and he is brilliant at it.

Exactly. He's an incredibly perceptive intellectual in the best tradition of American writing. I like to read his rants out loud to the family.

With respect to the Olduvai Gorge thing, the daily blog I put together does seem to suggest that there are some major energy issues throughout the world: systemic problems related to economic growth (China, South Africa), political problems, and tactical issues (like today's Aleutian islands story). Regardless of the reason, they suggest a world balanced on an energy "knife edge" (and that's taken from a story today from New Zealand where a dry spell has seriously compromised hydro power).

I don't think Duncan is too far off and I would suggest that there are, right now, sustained blackouts in many areas of the world.

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luisdias on February 15, 2008 - 10:43am

There is a long tradition of muckraking in the U.S., and he is brilliant at it.

So he is not a teacher. Who fired him? You?

And there's the obvious question hanging: why is a "muckraker" really needed?

If he is nothing than entertainment, though, then you've just put the sad fellow under the same bag as his long time nemesis, nascar and superbowl. How ironic!

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shargash on February 17, 2008 - 3:09pm

why is a "muckraker" really needed?

Are you serious? Given the endless stream of happy talk from the Iron Triangle (not to mention people like you), we have a desperate need for people to rake through the muck to try to get a glimpse of what is really going on.

But what Kunstler really is is a prophet, in the old Biblical sense of the word. And the thing about prophets is that they only have to be right once to be vindicated. And it is waaaay to early to say Kunstler has been wrong. Whereas the anti-phrophets need to be right continually for years.

That's just the nature of the of predicting discontinuities. It is nearly impossible to predict the extact time of a discontinuity, even though it is possible to predict that a discontinuity will occur. People who predict them are basically right if the discontinuity occurs, even if they miss the exact date.

TPTB, the happy talkers, the optimists are always caught with their pants down when the discontinuities hit. It is because they can't imagine anything but BAU, or they are so invested in the status quo that they'll defend it to their (perhaps literal) dying days.

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tstreet on February 17, 2008 - 8:02pm

Kunstler is a catalyst that got many of us thinking about peak oil, its consequences, and the appropriate response to it.

Kunstler generally takes the view that it is a mistake to believe that all the variously touted technologies like hydrogen cars, etc. are going to get us out of this mess. He may be wrong but that view certainly must be respected and dealt with. Yes, he is entertaining but a little entertainment goes a long way to gets people's attention and makes things a bit more interesting. Entertainment is often a necesssary ingredient to invoke discussion, thought, and even action.

Regardless of one's view of Kunstler, most people here would acknowledge that a rational society should be planning and acting now based upon the reasonable conclusion that we will not be able simply carry on before. What outrages Kunstler and me, for that matter, is that people and governments won't at least plan based upon a scenario that says we are going to have a lot less oil in the future than we have now, hardly an outrageous assumption. And, instead of simply assuming technology will save us, a rational planning exercise would include the assumption that technology might help and other energy sources might help but maybe we ought to consider a change in our lifestyles, our housing patterns, and the way we get around.

Perhaps we won't see the end of suburbia but that doesn't mean that suburbs and cities shouldn't be planning how they are going to survive and prosper based on very different circumstances.

There is a town near me that is almost completely dependent upon tourists and long distance commuters for its existence. Almost every decision is about how they get more money from more tourists who must come a long way by automobile to get here. Their vision of the future doesn't even acknowledge the possibility that happy motoring will either end or be cut way back. I am part of a group that is trying to raise consciousness and cause change. Boring discussions about the future of peak oil doesn't really cut it. We need people like Kunstler to get people's attention. For various reasons, the grass roots are starting to get it even if the town politicos and real estate developers are still making their plans based upon $2.00 gasoline.

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Kiashu on February 14, 2008 - 9:40pm

I've no idea what Kunstler does for a living, I just know that it's not forecasting oil production. But if you read what he writes you'll see that it's generally hysterical. After September 11th he wanted to drive the populations out of and destroy the cities of Damascus, Baghdad, Kabul, Tripoli and so on. When Pol Pot drove people out of the cities into the countryside we called it a "crime against humanity" and in fact "genocide". Now, everyone gets upset and says crazy things from time to time - but Kunstler has never recanted his advocacy for genocide.

So if you take him seriously then you really need to widen your range of reading.

The key issue is that when someone does something for a living, they're held to higher standards than when someone does not. I'm a chef these days - you expect decent food from me. If I kept giving you burned beans on toast you'd be more annoyed than if your buddy Joe the mechanic did it.

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Mamba on February 15, 2008 - 9:48am

Kunstler is a teacher and teaches his ideology to his students. If that is not "professional", then I wonder how incompetent he is, daring to teach such "hobbyistic" stupiddity and horror to the kids as some kind of an atheist form of apocalypse, an atheist version of coming hell.

Kunstler majored in Theater at college and has no formal training in the fields in which he prognosticates.

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