The Oil Drum

Can we distinguish between the predictions of Petroleum Geologists themselves and those who have taken one set of predictions or another to then make judgements about future practices?

Kunstler is a journalist, and a number of other PO figures mentioned are also not geologists. They have made a choice to believe the analysis of one set of geological predictions, much, for example, as those who run the US government have chosen to believe another (manifestly). In fact, nearly everyone in the rich world has chosen to believe one set of predictions or another, whether cornucopian (most) or depletionist (a growing number). We prove those beliefs when we live our lives as though the party is going to end or continue.

But saying that Kunstler, or George W. Bush or JimBob down at the Diner have chosen to make larger societal predictions based on geological analysis was inaccurate in their predictions about petroleum geology is ridiculous - they don't make any. The predicate their assumptions on one set of scientists or another, and postulate from there. But that's not the same thing as comparing two sets of scientists of similar qualifications and comparing *their* analysis.

So anyone who attempts to bring popular writers into the mix and point to them as "inaccurate" is simply raising a distracting red herring, and not a very compelling one.

Sharon