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matt, i agree with you. the next 5-10 years will be critical. but i believe it's wrong to assume that we will convert the factories by assuming the current economic situation. most likely, they will postpone the investments, and only in the final hour will we rush to a green frenzy. but by that time, most of the money that could be used to get a head start will be used for building smaller (petrol) cars, hybrids, biofuels, and so on. When the governments will realize that they need rail, there will be little money to do the task in a big way, because much of the income will be lost due to the citizen's eroded buying power and increased government costs.
long story short, i believe we'll just keep digging deeper hoping for some miracle, and one day we'll realize it takes a tremendous effort to climb back up. we're not "hoping for the best, preparing for the worst". we're just hoping for the best and expecting for it to happen.
All this effort to move around when we could be building places that have almost everything we needed within walking distance.
I call it the transportation illusion: the illusion that solving the problem of how you get to the people and things you need is more important than solving the problem of how to ensure that the people and things that you need are already living and existing where you are.