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152 comments on DrumBeat: February 18, 2008

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westexas on February 18, 2008 - 9:03am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

If we use what I believe is the Saudi's own number that their existing wells are declining at about -8%/year overall, they would need--in order to maintain their 2005 production rate of 9.6 mbpd (C+C)--about 2 mbpd of new production by the end of 2008.

Meanwhile, it appears that their domestic total liquids consumption will be growing by about 125,000 bpd to 250,000 bpd per year.

Their 2005 total liquids production rate was 11.1 mbpd (EIA). I estimate that if they wanted, and were able, in 2008 to match their 2005 net export level, they would have to boost 2008 total liquids production to about 11.7 mbpd.

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JoulesBurn on February 18, 2008 - 9:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

They also claim to be mitigating the 8% decline down to 2% by pricking a few more holes. But that's just another number; without some evidence supporting it, a number is whatever you want it to be.

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elwoodelmore on February 18, 2008 - 10:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

the saudi's always seem to leave part of the puzzle out. they list 500,000 bpd from Khursaniyah which is presumably all new production, an additional 250,000 from Shayban.
but what are Khurais and Manifa currently producing ?

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westexas on February 18, 2008 - 10:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

From the point of view of importing countries, all that counts is net exported liquids, and in round numbers the Saudi 2006 net export decline rate was about -5%/year, and the 2007 number was probably on the order of -10%/year.

Note the decision by Lukoil (linked up top), allegedly in a pricing dispute, to halt crude oil exports to Germany. Russian production has basically been flat from 10/06 to 11/07 inclusive (EIA), while recent Russian reports indicate production declines. From the linked article:

"I don't know whether other Russian producers are supplying crude instead of LUKOIL. But we have heard some talk that (German) refiners have been looking to import crude by sea," the source said.

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MUDLOGGER on February 18, 2008 - 6:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

key words and phrases: (not mentioned in any Euro-bilge text)

Kosovo
German/UK/French/fill in blank here / Recognition
Serbia / battle against Ottomans / 700 year old churches / etc
South Slavs
EC stupidity (under the aegis of multiculturalism and diversity)
Albanian knife/ drugs/sex slave merchants

And....

''I can do what the fook I like, any time I fookin like; just by turning this valve off .''. (that is the authentic voice of mother Russia speaking...)

Time to get real...

We have just created an independant Muslim state in Central Europe at the expense of Orthodox Christian Slavs who just happen to be supported by a nuclear tipped oil power.

Just watch this puppy run.

Dorme Bien.

Dig a shelter.

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JoulesBurn on February 18, 2008 - 10:12am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Regarding the start-up delay, I think they would actually gain credibility if they would just truthfully explain it. "Completing commissioning activities"? What, like building the podium? Finding the ribbon-cutting scissors?

The problem must be with something downstream of the wells. Haradh III was "commissioned" ahead of schedule, but at least 1 producer and 2 injectors were still being put in months later and only then was the field reportedly at capacity. Qatif has indications of even worse problems.

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