the saudi's always seem to leave part of the puzzle out. they list 500,000 bpd from Khursaniyah which is presumably all new production, an additional 250,000 from Shayban.
but what are Khurais and Manifa currently producing ?

From the point of view of importing countries, all that counts is net exported liquids, and in round numbers the Saudi 2006 net export decline rate was about -5%/year, and the 2007 number was probably on the order of -10%/year.

Note the decision by Lukoil (linked up top), allegedly in a pricing dispute, to halt crude oil exports to Germany. Russian production has basically been flat from 10/06 to 11/07 inclusive (EIA), while recent Russian reports indicate production declines. From the linked article:

"I don't know whether other Russian producers are supplying crude instead of LUKOIL. But we have heard some talk that (German) refiners have been looking to import crude by sea," the source said.