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152 comments on DrumBeat: February 18, 2008

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xeroid on February 18, 2008 - 10:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Does anybody have a link to historical spot prices for coal exports - they seem to me to be ratcheting up much like oil (from even something like a bit of rain in Australia), which would mean peak 'net export' coal about now, not in 20 or more years.

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xburb on February 18, 2008 - 12:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Australia coal export spot.

Force majeure and 300 dollars a ton.

Export volumes peaking?

"There's something going wrong in just about every coal exporting country," one major European consumer said. "Where isn't there a problem?,"

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xeroid on February 18, 2008 - 2:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hmmmm ... that's what I thought ... peak everything!

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westexas on February 18, 2008 - 2:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Very interesting.

From the "Export Volumes Peaking?" article:

INDONESIA

The world's largest exporter at close to 150 million tonnes a year but Indonesia is rapidly building coal-fired power plants to meet growing demand. Government has warned producers it may, at some unspecified time, need to call upon export coal to meet domestic demand.

Indonesian coal of various qualities -- sub-bituminous, low-grade, medium and high-grade -- is in tight supply.

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xburb on February 18, 2008 - 3:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Somehow I knew that part wouldn't escape your notice.

You all have got me wondering how often we will see the term "project cancelled" pop up around the world due to spiraling construction costs. Mining, refining, processing to final product all being affected by compounding energy constraint.

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westexas on February 18, 2008 - 4:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

As they say, the ELM is not exactly rocket science. One could in fact call it blindingly obvious, except that 99% of the population seems to be oblivious to the implications.

In 2006, the Economist Magazine asserted that Saudi Arabia could produce at its current rate for 70 years without finding another drop of oil. If they wanted to maintain flat net exports for 70 years, at their 2006 rate of increase in consumption they would have to increase their production at about +3.4%/year, for seventy years, when they would be producing about 118 mbpd.

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Sangiovese on February 18, 2008 - 2:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

If only half the drumbeat today is true in my book its indicating serious trouble ahead a lot quicker than most are anticipating.

Reading the ME energy shortfall forcast above 2010 - 2012 for Saudi, UAE bahrain etc. and then SA trying to close gap the by 2012, I would reckon South Africa will never get back to 100%, 24/7 electricity generation.

Without a major finacial crisis I reckon the TSHTF globally in 18-24 months, energy and food. Its a pity the clueless leadership here in the UK seem incapable of joining the dots while there is still even a fraction of time left to salvage something.

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