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131 comments on Oil Price Closes Above $100 a Barrel - New Peak Oil Press Release

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Prof. Goose on February 20, 2008 - 3:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think it goes slowly to $110, then the economy slows down and it settles back in to the mid-70s or 80s for a while, save any other geopolitical events. But still...that's gotta be enough to make it hurt. Especially with crack spreads finally catching up and gasoline demand about to increase.

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memmel on February 20, 2008 - 4:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I agree I did not expect it to go this high. However my worst case scenario indicates that GOM and other high technology old producing regions should be declining fairly rapidly now. Small field infield drilling etc. If this is true then I think the price is heading for 150 or so by mid summer.

However short term I'm waiting to see when the US can no longer import all the gasoline it wants. Once gasoline and blending components for export are maxed out thats when the fun begins.

So far it seems we can always buy all the gasoline we want but I suspect that sometime this year maybe the fall this will end.

The reason I think this is important is its root cause will be simply not enough oil for refinery capacity thus building more refineries in the US and competing for crude does no good.

Before this import prices for gasoline should increase substantially and like I said it seems we can get whatever we want now. But thats the number to watch it will go down before crude imports.

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Samsara on February 20, 2008 - 11:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

However my worst case scenario indicates that GOM and other high technology old producing regions should be declining fairly rapidly now.

Memmel, Prof. G.

That would be a good subject for a write up.

GOM - 3 Years Later

With all the post Kat-Rita damage at the time, and how much was impared, it would be a great study to take a clinical look now.

How much was lost?

How much capacity was/will never be reclaimed?

Dollar amount of loss?

etc.

Just Sayin...

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memmel on February 21, 2008 - 12:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I found a wealth of data on the DOE website. I'd have to dig up the links but I posted them here a few times. Simmons has given several talks on the issue.

Bringing it all together is a bear since their is a treasure trove of data and a number of good summary papers exist.

Short summary is if the rest of the world that has invested in advanced extraction methods follows the decline patterns seen in the GOM we are fucked.
And sorry to use such language but...

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Kiashu on February 21, 2008 - 7:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nup.

$180 by the end of the year, I say. Just in time to give the knockout punch to the US economy - then it drops back down a bit to $130, and all that unfulfilled demand from China, India, etc drags it back up slowly.

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