<DrumBeat: February 25, 2008 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: February 26, 2008>

63 comments on Whither The Bumpy Plateau?

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biologist on February 25, 2008 - 3:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Is the whole world like Texas? We don't know yet. I played around a bit with ANOVA and we need at least four "post-peak" years to prove that the world is different. Will be an interesting wait...

Year post peak Texas World
1 -1.7 -0.4
2 -0.1 -0.4
3 -2.5 0.0???? Still, sample too small...
4 ?? ???? We will know

Until 4 PP, repeat of the same data will not add additional information.

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westexas on February 25, 2008 - 3:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Well, as much as Texans like to think otherwise, Texas is not the only state in the Lower 48 states.

What we can say is that mathematically, based on the HL models, the world in 2005 was at about the same stage of depletion at which the Lower 48 peaked in 1970, and we can further say that, based on EIA (C+C) data, the world, just like the Lower 48, has shown two years of slow production declines after crossing the vicinity of the 50% depleted mark on the HL plots.

BTW, when Hubbert did his low case/high case Lower 48 projections in 1956, he found that a one-third increase in URR delayed the projected peak by all of five years.

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63 comments on Whither The Bumpy Plateau?

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