Ace,
Many thanks for an excellent and thought-provoking post.
I feel that one area however merits further expansion:
You said:

What is Aramco’s purpose of showing a continuous and gradual increase in OIIP, without supporting evidence? All oil companies, including state owned companies such as Saudi Aramco, are under great pressure to demonstrate replacement of reserves depleted by production.

You then do not go on to specify what these pressures are - not that I am disagreeing, but elucidation would be helpful.
I am aware of one pressure, that how much you can pump is related to the estimated size of your reserves in OPEC, but the present situation would appear to minimise the need for that.
It could perhaps also be argued that if KSA announced that reserves were indeed limited, although greater efforts would be put into substitution, prices might rocket and so the return on KSA's remaining reserves would be maximised - not that individuals or countries always clearly perceive their own best interests.
Thanks for the article, once again - any light you can throw on those points would be appreciated though!