35 comments on This Week in Petroleum 2-27-08
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35 comments on This Week in Petroleum 2-27-08
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I think that OPEC is working under a new set of rules. Since we have not had a real crisis yet its hard to determine what the new paradigm is. So we are in a sort of in between state that probably won't resolve till later this summer. My best guess is OPEC wants to see the price level that causes worldwide demand to start dropping. Too many OPEC producers are in decline or maxed out and if anything they know the situation better than we do. Shooting for a price point that leads to slowly dropping demand overtime makes a lot of sense. This implies that they are also betting that None OPEC production is in overall decline or cannot grow significantly.
So given that we could easily not see the true capabilities of OPEC for a few more years.
I don't think they are worried about the world turning away from oil anytime soon they can do the math on that one as well as we can.
Or that those that are able to expand production would be interested in joining OPEC. For example Angola joined recently. After the latest discovery the possibility of Brazil joining was mentioned.