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19 comments on Oil Drum Staff on Film

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Stuart Studebaker on March 13, 2008 - 7:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

thanks for those numbers.

There's a factor you didn't include: clathrates. As the arctic heats up, the tundra is going to expirate vast amounts of methane. I am uncertain as to how much temperature rise will kick the clathrates into meltdown, but I can't imagine it is very terribly much - 5 degrees perhaps? combine that with the problem that the Arctic is heating faster than other areas, and it all points at a significant clathrate release, which would exacerbate if not dwarf the CO2 problem.

But I am not sure how much of a temp. increase it will take to unleash the clathrates, and I am uncertain as to when (if everything continues as business as usual) that temp will be reached.

best regards,

S2
TO
ON

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Kiashu on March 13, 2008 - 7:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That sort of thing, along with the carbon sink capacity of the oceans and how they interact with warming, etc - that's all very new science, and unclear.

That, combined with varying emissions scenarios (eg, 1,000Gt in 20 years then 10Gt per year for 80 years is a different scenario to 1,800Gt over 100 years) is why the IPCC quote gives those quite large ranges for so many Gt of carbon giving us so much effect.

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