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My thinking on this subject is influenced by the work of Hansen and Kharecha, especially this paper:
Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate
About the IPCC scenarios Hansen said this last year:
The key point I was trying to get across in that part of the video is that fossil fuel reserves, especially in light of peak oil, are not influencing climate change thinking as much as they should. I am categorically not saying peak oil means we don't have to worry about climate change or anything crazy like that.
The section you highlighted covers my opinion that in carbon terms the alternatives won't be able to make up the shortfall that peak oil creates compared to a BAU, no-peak-oil-in-sight world. I think the Dutch paper backs up that by saying:
So, all the alternatives do is hold CO2 emissions flat. Without peak oil, oil supply would continue to grow and emissions would be higher. From that point of view, peak oil is good news for climate change.
Hansen nowadays reckons that 350ppm is the threshold for catastrophic climate change. We've already passed that.
So Hansen of all people should be arguing that the total amount of fossil fuels burned won't be that important.
From the abstract to the linked paper,
In a situation where we burn as much oil as we possibly can, I don't think it's reasonable to expect that coal and unconventionals will be "constrained". You can't expect that people will go flat out with one lot but take it easy with the other.
The paper doesn't consider that with scarce fossil fuels we're likely to see greater deforestation. Of course, deforestation is largely a Third World problem, and Western scientists tend to focus on Western problems...
I honestly don't think peak oil makes a difference. We're just very keen to burn stuff to run our societies, Western or Third World. It's not scarce enough for scarcity to have much impact.
I've taken a second look at your video, and a full look at the Hansen paper.
First up, if you want to say that peak oil doesn't mitigate climate change, you need to say that more clearly in the video. You say it, then contradict it, then hedge, and so on; but the overall impression is, "peak oil will give us lower carbon emissions", which to the average viewer will mean, "so actually it's good news for climate change". So you need to redo that section if you don't actually want to say that peak oil will mitigate climate change. Clarity.
Second, in reference to Hansen, you say,
But in that paper Hansen doesn't say that low reserves influence climate change. In fact, what he says is,
well in Chris' defense, this film crew flagged us down after the conference and asked us a bunch of questions on the spot, then edited our responses. I thought they did a good job, but its not like these were rehearsed, practiced or the questions known in advance....Chris' more articulated views on the intersection of peak oil and climate change come out in his writing and work at TOD - but this video does serve as a small example of how easily spoken word can depart from science when on the spot...
Ah okay, you should have told us that from the beginning!
So now you get a compliment - if that's how you lot speak when off the cuff, that's fucking brilliant. I assumed it was prepared and more-or-less scripted. It certainly doesn't look like you got ambushed as you describe.
My advice to you is go for the scripted speeches if you're going to spread the videos around. When dealing with something which is in the public mind either a controversial issue or an unknown one, you want to make sure you're saying exactly what you want to say.