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222 comments on DrumBeat: March 5, 2008

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xeroid on March 5, 2008 - 11:16am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

if the producers start keeping their fast-dwindling resources in order to power up their own fast-expanding economies ... an oil shock then risks turning into an energy famine.

In other words ELM ... and it's happening now if you believe published data!

A chart of overlaid 'World C+C' and 'Net Exports' trendlines (to smooth the data) shows steady ~2% growth ending around 2005 and, not surprisingly since ELM predicts it, 'net exports' starts to fall away - peaking in 2007.

Interestingly, projecting the trendlines forward slightly predicts a peak of 'World C+C' in 2008/2009. ACE predicts a peak of 'World Total Liquids' in the same timeframe! http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3623#more

Bear in mind that post-peak these trends are likely best case, as above ground factors almost certainly will make things worse to some extent.

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mcgowanmc on March 5, 2008 - 12:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

March corn $5.58 and May $5.70 2/8
puts corn, our other fuel, in the record books.

March soy at $15.38 and May at $15.52 records as well.

Wheat, will then rise off of this.

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ken1 on March 5, 2008 - 2:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

See my colleague Warren Karlenzig's assessment of Major US Cities' Preparedness for an Oil Crisis.

Cities you want to be in if oil prices rise far and fast.

http://www.commoncurrent.com/media.shtml

Enjoy,

Ken

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karlof1 on March 5, 2008 - 5:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I find it rather amazing that Los Angeles ranked 12 in this survey. I would have expected it to rival San Jose and Las Vegas, 35 and 34, respectively. Perhaps looking at the whole LA metro area would be more practical. The top ten able to withstand $4 gas/$100 oil:
1. San Francisco
2. New York
3. Chicago
4. Washington, DC
5. Seattle
6. Portland, OR
7. Boston
8. Philadelphia
9. Oakland
10. Denver

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SunnyvaleCA on March 5, 2008 - 7:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

$4 gasoline is nearly here in silicon valley. Relative to the cost of housing, $4 is nothing. Anyway, if energy costs (of all sorts) were to double or triple, I'd rather live somewhere that doesn't require heating or cooling of houses and where bike riding and walking are reasonable all year. With 75% of the vehicles removed from the roads (due to fuel costs) and the multi-lane roads partially blocked off for bicycle use only, bicycling would be a great way to get around much of silicon valley. I'd rather be in San Jose (or Sunnyvale) than any of the cities listed above for those reasons. I turned off my heater last month and probably won't turn it on again until November; I don't have air conditioning.

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BrianT on March 5, 2008 - 7:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

#9-Oaktown wouldn't be my first choice in the event of a major crisis-#18 Honolulu seems as amenable to a car-free, low energy lifestyle as anywhere I've seen.

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ken1 on March 6, 2008 - 11:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Brian- you're referring to the large pockets of violent crime and poverty right? Otherwise, Oakland is mostly flat for bicycling and has both bart and rapid bus transit.

The study didn't consider crime. ;)

Cheers.

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