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255 comments on DrumBeat: March 6, 2008

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dipchip on March 6, 2008 - 8:45am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Lake Lanier, Atlanta’s primary water supply has achieved a 1 meter rise in pool level and 100k acre feet of additional storage since it’s low point on 28 Dec. This is still 3.5 meters or 12 feet below the level of last July 1st. The lake is also 5 meters or 17 ft below the normal summertime pond level.

Lake Lanier is rather unique. It has a 1040 Sq mile watershed and a normal pond surface of 73 Sq miles. This provides a ratio of about 14 to 1, this is the probably the lowest ratio of any major water supply in the country. The watershed has an avg. annual rain fall of 60 to 80 inches, which is the highest of any area outside of the Northern Pacific coast. The Atlanta Metro area is 50 to 60 inches. The high annual rain fall is due to the rising elevation or steep gradient of the watershed terrain.

Since Dec 1st Buford Georgia, The dam site has received 12.2 inches of rain and Gainesville Georgia, on the southeast central coast of the lake has received 13.9 inches of rain. Gainesville received 31.7 inches of rain in 2007, 39.7 in 2006 and 52 in 2005. This amount of rain in any other watershed would be sufficient to maintain normal pond level for most any other lake. Perhaps future normal rain fall in the coming months can achieve last July’s pool level.

Ref:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KGVL/2007/12/1/CustomHistory...

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ga/nwis/uv?cb_00045=on&cb_72036=on&cb_00062=on...

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Gwydion on March 6, 2008 - 9:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Atlanta Water Shortage is a wonderful web-site for those interested in this. They have a great graphic showing the lake level for the past couple of years:

That very, very steep decline from August to December of 2007 means that 2008 is going to be rough year for us here in Atlanta. They'll be lucky if they can keep generating power from the lake throughout this year, I doubt it myself. I bet we're going to hit dead pool at 1035 ft above sea level.

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theantidoomer on March 6, 2008 - 10:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm a bit of a amateur weather buff, and have been looking at the 10 day weather models and Georgia to NC should receive more significant rainfall this week (3-5 inch range). While this will not end the drought now, it does indicate a significant change in the weather pattern. As I predicted many months ago these weather patterns have a way of balancing things out over time. Most importantly prediction made here of the Southeast US burning in flames and hoards of refugees moving north in Januaray never came true.

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mcgowanmc on March 6, 2008 - 10:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Nice. Two months rain and we're almost back, maybe to July 1, 07 levels.

And you call it over. A non event.

"these weather patterns have a way of balancing things out over time"

Yeah. Everything balances. And in the long run, we're all...

We in US agri need everything to be just right from now on.

We must have near record crops every year.

Whereas we only need one more drought year to bring us to our knees.

And Atlanta destroyed it's watershed to add insult to injury.

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CO2 on March 6, 2008 - 11:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Maybe if I aspired to become an amateur weather buff, I would not be such a doomer...
but speculating about weather patterns based on 10 day weather models? that sounds pretty myopic

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mcgowanmc on March 6, 2008 - 11:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That's why I'm a climatologist on strategy,

a meteorologist tactically.

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NeverLNG on March 6, 2008 - 11:17am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I believe that this means that Atlanta's golf courses and lawns will be safe for another year. Phew!

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shargash on March 6, 2008 - 12:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This year is starting out almost exactly like last year. If it continues, rainfall will be good till around April, then it will fall off a cliff.

Lets see what the rainfall looks like in early summer. If it doesn't continue to follow last years' pattern, and the SE gets some tropical moisture during hurricane season, then I'll be more optimistic.

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super390 on March 6, 2008 - 1:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I think that prediction was for next summer, and the summers to come. We'll see after La Nina goes away next year, but you must admit that the American Way of Life is creating water problems all over the continent, problems which impact tar sands production, ethanol production, the cooling of nuclear reactors, and of course hydroelectric power. Americans have to panic before they change.

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weatherman on March 6, 2008 - 4:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Funny about that. Looking at the NCDC site Georgia has a total of 15" of rain this winter (Dec-Jan). it doesn't seem like much of a drought.

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