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This plot shows actual Russian crude oil production, I believe through 2005. The red line is the HL projection, generated using production data through 1984 (the green data points). IMO, the red curve is a reasonably close approximation for cumulative Russian production from mature producing basins--those basins that were largely developed and in production in 1984. This would exclude areas like Sakhalin Island, which had been found, but which was not in production in the Eighties.
Note that excluding Sakhalin Island, Russian crude oil production has shown a year over year decline since May, 2007, and recent production numbers show declines in total crude oil production. This is significant because Russia basically has now produced about 100% of what the HL model predicted that their post-1984 cumulative production would be (using production data through 1984 to generate the model).
What is scary about this scenario is that the Russian production decline could be fairly severe.
In Defense of HL:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2689
(As usual, Khebab did the outstanding math/graph work.)
Bad, bad news for Europe(and not just for Europe). This should be submitted to Andris Piebalgs' blog. Do I have your permission?
Sure, the link is shown above. You can find most of our export related stuff by doing a Google Seach for Jeffrey Brown + Net Oil Exports.
I feel the HL analysis is quite tricky for Russia because their production has been modulated by severe political forces during the timeframe of analysis.
Given the HL analysis shown, it looks as if future production is assumed zero ( mathematically: the integral of the difference between HL model and actual production over the range of 1900 to 2006 is set to zero, logistic parameters adjusted to fit for minimal deviation ).
What would the HL curve look like if we estimated Russia's production to 2050, considering whats known to this time, then run HL over the interval 1900 to 2050.
Yeh, I know its still a WildAssGuess (WAG). None of us seem to have a crystal ball.
I love the work you are sharing with us in the true spirit of a concerned scientist. A lot of it has gone unappreciated and unrecognized. I feel the world will soon be quite aware of your Export Land Model.
As for now, we can still throw dollars at the market and get increasing inventories. I fear this will soon no longer be the case. Yours and other's mathematical analyses of this gives me at least the comfort of having reasonable expectations of whats coming at me.
If there is anything that makes me uneasy, its a bunch of newsheads hocking up unsubstantiated commentary. Like most of us here at TOD, I am a "show me" person.
I highly appreciate the efforts you, the OilDrum staff, and board members are contributing to this forum to hold intelligent TECHNICAL discussions on this topic.
Steve
That's why we cut off the model in 1984 (prior to the post-Soviet collapse) and used that data set to predict future production. My premise is that the mature basins in Russia are similar to the Lower 48 and that the frontier basins in Russia are analogous to Alaska.
As I said, I think that this HL plot gives us a reasonable approximation for URR from mature Russian basins. If that is the case, Russia is probably going to show a sharp production decline.
BTW, if you click on the above In Defense Of article, we did the same exercise for the Lower 48, cutting off the model in 1970. Basically post-1970 Lower 48 and post-1984 Russian cumulative production has pretty much been what the HL models predicted.