164 comments on Peak Oil Update - August 2008: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
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164 comments on Peak Oil Update - August 2008: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
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GAIA Host Collective
>>...solar and wind ... cannot be poured into your tank anyway<<
While solar and wind can not be poured into a gas tank, solar can be used to offset electricity demand through solar collectors for home heating and hot water. The resulting savings in electricity can be used to power an electric vehicle (EV). All this without increasing the need for more utility generators.
A typical sedan will go approximately 3 to 4 miles on a kilowatt hour of electricity. If 90% of us commute less than 30 miles, then we are talking about 10 KWhr which should be easy enough to save through home solar installations.
A while back, I roughly calculated that if the output from a PV array were fed directly into an EV, The payback at 15% efficiency was about 8 years. This is without any government subsidy. The trick is to be able to directly refuel your EV from solar.
After Gustav gets through with the Gulf infrastructure, and gasoline prices climb, EVs operating at 2 to 3 cents a mile will be looking good. The good news is that a number of conversion shops are starting to spring up and a number of new and old car companies have EV and Plug in Hybrid EVs (PHEV) on the way.
Conversion shops are started where someone asks their mechanic if they would convert a car or truck to all electric. Amp Mobile Conversions (http://www.ampmobileconversions.com/) was started this way. In other cases a person picks up a copy of "Convert It" by Micheal Brown and Sheri Prange and does it themselves. When successful, the person is sometimes asked to do one for a neighbor.
Companies such as IBM and Cisco are putting in electrical outlets in their parking lots for free for employees who drive EVs. If you drive an EV, ask your employer if you can plug in or if they would install an electrical outlet for you.
Nanosolar is now concentrating on 2-10MW systems, which are low cost.
The installation of one of these systems, which many factories and offices have enough roof space for, would allow their workers cars to be recharged at considerably less cost than home systems - both because maintenance and operation are cheaper at this scale, and because the charging could take place during the day when the car is at work.
In hot areas it has even been found that people are prepared to pay enough for shaded parking that it can pay for a solar covering to the car park!
Nissan, Renault, Mitsubishi and lately Toyota have announced plans for mass production of EV's.
The first ones are due in 2009.
Luxury Electric claim that their car can be charged in 10minutes for a 140mile run from a normal power outlet,although how the heck they put that much power through a normal outlet is not clear.
http://www.transport20.com/electric-vehicle/luxury-electric-to-drive-a-l...
Luxury Electric to drive a long-range electric car across the U.S.A. ยป Transport 2.0
You can't logically ignore the capital costs of solar and wind. Both are around $3/watt and work only 20% of time so you need $15/watt. You lose atleast 20% energy during the most efficient storage (batteries) so the cost is $18.75/watt. Then add the maintenance cost which would be atleast 12.5% of the capital cost, so the total cost is %21/watt. Then add the cost of the battery which would be atleast 12.5% of the cost above. This takes the total cost to about $24/watt.
This system work for 30 years before total replacement and produce:
30 years x 365 days/year x 86400 second/day = 947 MJ energy
Each one dollar in gdp consumes 10 MJ energy (divide world/country/province gdp by world/country/province energy consumption) so each watt capacity above contributes $94.7 over a period of 30 years.
This is a ROI of less than 400% in 30 years or a linear 13.16%/year or an exponential 5%/year. Thats ROI in overall GDP of country. Given that each barrel of oil contributes about $600 in gdp and maximum per barrel oil price in history is $150 which is 25% of its contribution in gdp we can assume that the owner of solar cells or wind mill will only get at maximum 3.25% linear ROI per year.
I got one reply wiped as the site went down, but briefly, there is plenty of power available at least in the States to run EV's or hybrid's without extending the grid or solar, according to a recent study 84% of cars could be hybrid before the grid would need improving.
On the specifics of solar as suggested, thin film from First Solar costed around $1.29 watt in 2007 - figures are not available for Nanosolar.
PV maintenance costs are also low - and the configuration suggested is optimised for this.
The power also would not need transmitting or stepping down, as it is produced exactly where it is needed, saving cost, and although intermittency means it is only available 20% of the time, that is exactly when it is wanted.
The batteries are also paid for in the price of the car, or by a battery hire system which works out a lot cheaper than petrol.
Your calculations also take no account of the far greater efficiency of running an electric car rather than an ICC car, so you need a fraction of the power - only around 1kwh for 3-4 miles.
Finally, you appear to take no account of the inefficiencies of power generation with fossil fuels, which is 40% if you are lucky, and so counteracts around half of your losses for the 20% efficiency of solar due to intermittency.
But all that lot falls very short of an answer to that opening phrase. There's a huge investment in things with gasoline/diesel etc tanks, not just millions of cars but also other rather pricey vehicles and machines. And then there's the supply infrastructure to be added. All that lot amounts to a daunting investment even for a thriving economy let alone one which is in substantial recession. Most of those empty tanks are not going to find electric replacements, my bet. And hence as I stated, C Martenson's point is valid.
I would not see at smooth transition to an all-electric fleer of vehicles in a use pattern similar to todays' either.
But the good news is that this is because we have made a mess of the financial environment, and fatally delayed transiting from fossil fuels.
This means that most will probably be using electric bikes and scooters rather than being able to afford a car, but delivery vehicles, emergency vehicles and taxis should be perfectly capable of being run.
This is a much brighter future than one where that is not the case, and has the additional advantage that the power requirements of this use are even lower than for EV cars, so the grid will need less power and we have more time to build alternative generating capacity.
Is it just me, or are things seeming a little more urgent lately?
A great example of how limited our predictions for the future can be. Perhaps it has been mentioned before on TOD but I, like many others I'm betting, had typically thought of EVs being recharged at home because the recharging cycle could be scheduled for off peak generation. Recharging during working hours has its problems in stressing the electric grid and peak generation capacity.
Solar generated electric has a long way to go with regards to cost per watt. (I think that is the measure:) Home solar is still a niche market and more of a good faith effort to move solar forward than to save money. By taking advantage of the commercial scale of solar installation and integrating it into the company's workplace as either a cost free benefit (perhaps the IRS would be willing to not tax the value of that benefit:) or a low cost benefit that helps to subsidize the installation costs is a win win situation. Not to mention a huge shot in the arm for the solar industry.
Let's take it one step further and consider the problem of compressed natural gas replacing a significant portion of gasoline usage. That problem being distribution of refueling facilities. Let's put in natural gas fueling facilities on company parking lots. Again, you have the advantage of scale (if the number of work vehicles is large enough). It will be a balancing act between the number of pumps vs the number of vehicles and how many need to fuel up each day. Still, think of the huge number of gas stations throughout the country that don't have the customer volume to add natural gas. Medium to large companies can help considerably in achieving the critical mass of fueling stations for natural gas to take off.
The thought of using canopies as a dual system to reduce heat buildup in cars and as a platform for solar panels solves the not insignificant problem of protecting the users of a charging station from being electrocuted during a rain storm. You also solve the square footage limitation on company building rooftops to install solar panels on.
I don't want to imply this is a done deal. I'm saying there are a significant number of ways to think a bit outside the box and some will be home runs. Leaving many of us to slap our heads and say "why didn't I think of that!"
Hmm, parking garages?
In London they have been trialling a system with public points for recharging, and there have been no reports of fried drivers that I have heard of!
Correct design appears to be able to deal with that one.
As for the cost of solar power, if you are recharging cars at work you have the not-inconsiderable advantage of having the power right where you want if, right when you want it.
In Berlin the system they are putting in there will be able to accept current back from the cars, so that sophisticated charging/discharging systems can use some of the vast storage capacity that would be available to balance out very short term fluctuations in the grid.
A lot of he synergies seem to be very hopeful.