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Robert and Nate
The complaint about policy that twists innovation and land values is valid.
Here is an option to find sustainable options.
Problem: Mobilizing for World War I infrastructures of power generation, communications and transportation were monopolizing to control threats.
De-monopolization of communications in 1984 broke this pattern. In 1984 we still had substantial numbers or rotary telephones. Now nearly every teenager walks around with a "shoe-phone" whose integrated computer would have cost more than $134,000 in 1984.
Monopolization has continued in power generation, inefficiency of 69%.
Monopolization has continued in transportation, inefficiency of 80%. CSX Railroad currently runs an ad showing how they move a ton 423 miles on a gallon of fuel. Ships and railroads are radically more efficient than cars. In congested urban transport, about 4 billion of the 8 billion miles Americans drive daily, efficiency is about 4%; the other 96% goes to drive climate change.
We do not have an energy problem, we have a regulatory problem. De-monopolize power generation (i.e. Germany's Feed-in Tariffs) and transportation (such as Personal Rapid Transit) and we can increase efficiency to live within a solar budget.
But even here at TOD discussion of Personal Rapid Transit is censored. If we want more creative answers we have to tolerate the flakes and innovators.
Bill,
I object to your assertion that PRT is censored on TOD. I don't know too much about it other than the closed loop systems around airports and the like. Perhaps you could do a post on PRT to get the discussion going.
I can understand why censorship is objectionable. It seems silly to me to excluded ideas. Ask Leanan why my posts on PRT keep getting censored. Currently urban transport is about 4% efficient. PRT can increase efficiency to about 70%.
I would post more about PRT but the post keep getting cut. Ask for an open discussion on this subject.
Cut?
Elaborate.
PRT is not a panacea. It has a niche benefits. But in that niche it can provide efficiency improvement from 4% to 70%. How big that niche will become will be clear over time.
Our approach is pretty simple, it costs less to move less. In highly repetitive travel, why are we moving a ton to move a person? Every stop start requires applying power to re-build kinetic energy.
I amended this Livermore Labs graphic to illustrate the vast percent of waste in power generation and transportation.
The "Potential Profit" is dumpster diving, the harvesting of waste into profit. It is hard work. It requires many niche solutions.
If we allow innovative solutions to attack waste, we will not have an energy problem. My education is in nuke engineering. I have no trouble with nukes, but distributed generation from solar is likely our best long term option.
If we use power where it is generated, you can substantially decrease transmission loses in power generation. Transmission loses are about 30%. That is what Germany's Feed-In Tariffs are accomplishing.
If we appropriately apply PRT, we can achieve rail efficiencies in urban transport. In our effort, we integrate distributed power generation to power a distributed need for power in transportation.
"Censored" is a far different animal than "dismissed by commentators". Every PRT system I"ve been introduced to was either wildly optimistic, didn't solve any problems better than competing transit solutions, was far too expensive, or some combination thereof. I've seen quite a few, and almost all were introduced on this site.
We've got trillions of present-day dollars and millions of miles of right of way in our current road system - that's the biggest block to PRT right at the beginning - we already built an all-encompassing system, our of asphalt.
We do not have an energy problem, we have a regulatory problem.
OH really?
Here *I* was thinking all this time 'we' had was a economic model based on growth, underpriced cheap energy, and strong arguments that the world is suffering from overpopulation.
If it is simply "too much government" - hows that 'less government' thing working out in the US of A? Ya know - under the rule of the party who says they are gonna shrink the government.
But let me get to why I opted to login and respond:
Now say - how does your PRIVATE transport system exist without the governments power to confincate land for public use?
(Odds are this query will go unanswered, the same way how pointing out bicycles 'weight less and therefore are an even BETTER deal' or how 'why move people when their daily personal transport options can be moved via worker dorms or telecommuting')
But even here at TOD discussion of Personal Rapid Transit is censored.
If that is the way *YOU* see it, that is your problem. *I* see it as some guy who wants to pimp his own idea that would line his own pocket with money who is being told 'no , this is not a vector for you to line his pocket'
You want to make a profit on your idea? Fine. But why are you so bent outta shape when you can not use a resource you are not paying for to spread your for-profit message?
Regulatory monopolies in power generation and transportation are terribly inefficient. Innovation is barred by regulations.
The biofuels effort is an attempt by current transportation regulators to find a way to sustain the car/road network. If we challenged our fundamental assumptions, we can invent better for some niches.
In the niche I understand (congested, repetitive transport), efficiency can be increased from 4% to 70%. If we do that, we can live within domestic US oil production. We can live within a solar budget.
"Waste not, want not."
Innovation is barred by regulations.
No.
Show how this is the case.
Sorry to say, I cannot quote the facts here.
bill, here is what i think of what you thought
1. Germany Energy is primarily a monopoly. Please read about a firm called EON. The government mandated the changes you are on about.
2. In the united states de monopolisation has led to price rises in the energy sector. As it has in UK too.
3. Monopolization has continued in transportation, inefficiency of 80% -> you need to read the history of californian trams/electric buses, note period after WWII when GM et al bought them up and slowly closed them down. A similar story happened with UK canals when railways came along. Lack of regulation, lack of checks and balances on democratic processes that allowed companies to make these monopolies. Thus never need to change their ways.
4. I praise the break up of AT&T, but what happened since, Bell south has managed to remake AT&T nearly. Microsoft has taken the IT market, though the EU are trying to stop that. In the US they legeslated to help Microsoft, upshot is that your software patent laws are a nightmare for small and middle sized businesses, they can barely compete. I admire the states for break up of monopolies like standard oil and AT&T, but they are one off examples.
My thoughts are while you could have non monopolies running these utilities, they are utilities in the end, and have become just too important to allow free market reign. in our democracies the is inherent bias to well funded lobby groups as the people who could regulate often need to make quick decisions that they may not have time to answer well. In these situations, these poeple, if fed something convincing from 'friends' without other opinions fall for the lobby group opinion.
You can guess I am european, I think the is a need for a shake up in how Anglo saxon countries view regulation. We need more transperancy and ability to lock up politicians who are corrupt, or indeed so stupid they fall for lobby group gambits. We need much stronger corridors for lobby from populace.
de-monopolization does not seem to work.
alex
"In the united states de monopolisation has led to price rises"
No, liberalization without sufficient demonopolisation led to price rises. There must be sufficient competition for liberalisation to be effective.
In California deregulation allow customers to choose who would bill them for power.
De-monopolization, allows anyone to sell power to the grid. This allows small business to find profitable niches.
There is a huge difference.
And yet, the people who make claims like yours do not:
1) Set up court watchers.
2) Complain when it is illegal to set up doctor rating systems.
3) Complain when Creekside Beef is treated the way it was.
(there are more, but these are just a simple sample)
But here is the money shot:
"must be sufficient competition"
So, you gonna support the government breaking up GE/WalMart/Boeing/Lockeed-Martin/(blah blah blah)?
How about breaking up AT&T
Strange tie-in but in general, I think there are anti-trust laws for good reason.
If you want innovation, let people bet their own money.
That is the whole problem with ethanol. It is growing because of subsidies, not market demand.
If you want innovation, let people bet their own money.
Then why complain about when people who are using there own money (to set up this place) opt to choose where the discussion goes?
Hi Alex
Monopolies in political terms are dictatorships, monarchs, etc... Monopolies in commerce are not much better at allowing new ideas.
The simple truth is that our current infrastructure is the cause of Peak Oil and Climate Change. We built it. We can build better.
At the time of Edison, Ford and Bell, regulatory monopolies were very weak. As the monopolies grew, we locked in inefficiencies from a century ago. Since de-monopolization of communication in 1984, communication's infrastructure has radically improved. If we want to re-tool transport and power generation, we need to allow the messy process of churn to sort breakdown from breakthrough.
If you want to adapt, you must allow churn. You cannot expect monopolies to risk their existence by allowing themselves to be superseded by better ideas.
You cannot expect monopolies to risk their existence by allowing themselves to be superseded by better ideas.
I still am looking for your whitepaper on the use of Eminent Domain to take from one party to give to another in the name of public good - and how often the new owner results in private gains.
Because the monopolies you list all had the use of Eminent Domain to set them up, and the regulation was the bargin THEY entered into to have the takings of property via Eminent Domain.
The FCC had the incredible foresight to note that networks provided for the general welfare and common defense, a Constitutional basis for granting rights of way for communications networks.
Rights of way need to be paid for, but where would we be without roads, railroads, sewers, power grids, etc....
PRT being off ground plane, will have a visual impact but consumes very little actual land. It should still pay for those uses.
You're using the FCC as a good example of providing for general welfare and common defense? That's a little problematic, seems to me. I'd use the FCC - and document my argument - to prove the failure of the regulatory state and system.
If you want people to take you seriously, do your homework. Upthread someone suggested you put together a White Paper.
cfm in Gray, ME
Rights of way need to be paid for, but where would we be without roads, railroads, sewers, power grids, etc....
But that is not the system that exists.
Land and right of ways are not treated at market rates or market terms.
PRT being off ground plane, will have a visual impact but consumes very little actual land. It should still pay for those uses.
And yet, while you say 'should', you'll be happy to on the profit end of a eminent domain taking.