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195 comments on Peak Oil Overview - March 2008 (Pdf and Powerpoint available)

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memmel on March 13, 2008 - 12:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This may sound a bit crazy for a primer. But I think adding in a little bit about error in measurement would be invaluable. For example our world production number have a +/- 1mbd error with unknown but potentially large systematic errors i.e a country reports or does not report a oil source that another country includes.

I would not go into to much detail but the average joe would claim peak oil is a hoax if they read a number that we produced one more cup of oil over a certain date.

I notice a lot of avid Oildrum readers fall prey to reading to much into the numbers so I think this might be a big issue for the public at large.

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Gail the Actuary on March 13, 2008 - 12:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It is really easy to increase complexity in the whole subject. It doesn't seem to me that saying that we don't really know what the numbers are helps a beginner understand the situation that much better.

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bboeri on March 13, 2008 - 12:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Gail,
Great work as usual.
Question: I believe you were working on a book on Peak Oil.
Have you finished that? If so, I'd like to buy one (I assume it will be available on Amazon, true?).

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Gail the Actuary on March 13, 2008 - 1:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I probably should be, but there are several issues involved. One is that it takes a long time to get a book published, unless one self-publishes, and the field is changing rapidly. Another is that if one wants to put together a really good book, one has to devote a lot of time to it, and this would take away from my time writing on the web.

I have thought about having someone put together a compilation of some of my web posts and publish it. I could even write a few more posts to fill in the blanks.

One minor issue is that if one wants to keep publishing costs reasonable, one needs to only use black and white illustrations. On the web, color works better. With this particular post, I tried to make illustrations that would print out reasonably well in black and white. If one wants a book that would meet the standards of most "regular" publishers, all of the graphs would have to be reset in a manner that would make them look sort of OK in black and white.

A person can get to my Oil Drum posts on this link:
http://www.theoildrum.com/user/Gail+the+Actuary/stories

In November 2007, I put together a PDF of some of my posts. It is about 110 pages long. In some ways, it is a substitute for a book. It can be found here:

http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/introduction-to-peak-o...

Quite a few of my earlier posts can also be found, in written out form, on that site. I have not been adding ones recently, because the Word Press site and The Oil Drum use different forms of HTML, and making the translation takes time.

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geek7 on March 13, 2008 - 9:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Gail,

I want to complement you on your clear, uncluttered graphs. I think color is highly overrated. Especially on a low resolution medium like computer screen. Please don't make extra work for yourself. Timely access to clear information on an uncluttered display with evenly spaced grid lines is my strong preference.

Thanks.

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aangel on March 13, 2008 - 12:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi, memmel. Pleased to meet you.

I too think that reading too much into the numbers is a trap.

To handle that, I go the other direction than you are suggesting...I keep bringing the audience back to the big picture so that they don't get hung up on the numbers, margins of error, etc. etc. When making a public presentation, audience members with an analytical bent to them can derail a conversation with their questions if they are overly indulged. I redirect the conversation quickly away from the specific objection and point out its irrelevance in the bigger picture so that I can keep the other members of the audience focussed on the important bit: the inescapable nature of Energy Descent and how they are going to respond.

-André

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memmel on March 13, 2008 - 1:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes I agree either way the point is that detractors of peak oil often use "numbers" so no matter how you deal with it its not a numbers game. At best if your lucky and eventually get good real numbers it will help you decide the best approach to mitigating peak oil. Other than that the number don't matter.

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Franz on March 14, 2008 - 12:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I keep bringing the audience back to the big picture so that they don't get hung up on the numbers, margins of error, etc. etc.

lol you mean so they don't get hung up on the facts ...?

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aangel on March 14, 2008 - 9:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

See the next sentence to see what I mean.

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195 comments on Peak Oil Overview - March 2008 (Pdf and Powerpoint available)

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