My working guesstimate is that total world net oil exports will have dropped by at least 75% from 2005 to 2031. It's really more of a competition between importers for declining oil exports. As noted above, IMO, the bidding will get more aggressive as forced energy conservation moves up the food chain.

what about competition? Surely, there will be some between exporters.

The important thing is to maximise profit - there will be competition, but that does not mean that they will produce more oil in the short term (or, more especially, enough oil to permit BAU economic growth) - profit means minimising cost/risk and maximising income. Profit is overridingly important to a producer, not the customer's/world's actual total needs.

The more efficiently a producer extracts oil the greater the depletion rate, the less time to make a profit - oil will be more expensive/difficult to extract in the future which is what causes global peak oil, since as prices rise (in order to make a profit) demand falls - as opposed to an individual oil well which peaks due to geological reasons.

Post peak we are in a new paradigm since, sadly, there appears to be no adequate alternative to oil for the forseeable future - on average expect constant declines in volume but constant increases in price - the lower the world total volume the higher the profit if you have an existing well. If the supernormal profits attract 'windfall' taxes there is a definite disincentive to produce.

Peak oil is bonanza time for producers but disaster time for consumers - the poorest consumers suffer the most - are people with the largest debts the richest or the poorest?

The economic theory, politics and energy sources used to run our 'exponential growth' world will have to be rethought I suspect.