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245 comments on DrumBeat: March 14, 2008

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westexas on March 14, 2008 - 8:28am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

No link.

Persian Gulf Tanker Rates Drop as April Cargoes Fail to Emerge
2008-03-13 04:59 (New York)
By Alaric Nightingale

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of shipping Middle East
crude to Asia, the world's busiest market for owners, may drop
for a 10th day as cargoes expected for April fail to emerge.

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Leanan on March 14, 2008 - 8:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Link here.

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westexas on March 14, 2008 - 8:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

http://www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/?id=markets_oil

Thanks. BTW, as noted yesterday, all 11 grades of crude on Upstreamonline are over $100. Tapis is around a dollar or so short of Triple Yergin (one "Yergin" = $38).

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Darwinian on March 14, 2008 - 9:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Also of note, all contracts on the NYMEX settled above $100 yesterday. The lowest price to be found was the June 2010 contract, that settled at $100.79, everything else was higher.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/quickquote.php3?sel=Crude+...

Ron Patterson

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Moe_Gamble on March 14, 2008 - 10:01am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

China's on a little buying strike (they made a big deal of announcing they were not going to buy commodities at high prices anymore). The price will stall here and consolidate, their inventories will be down, and then they'll be buying again, having to make up for the strike, and causing the next leg up.

I have to say, China strikes me overall as being the worst trader in the world.

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mcgowanmc on March 14, 2008 - 10:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

China's in charge.

Who do you think is crushing the Yen, to the BoJ's dismay.

"The Fed has been forced to replace the Japan carry trade. Only there is a serious problem with this: Japan has a gigantic FOREX reserves of our debts and currency. We have virtually no Japanese debts or currency in our own reserves. We have run on laughable reserves for years: $60 billion, more or less! All our trade rivals have much greater reserves. So they can adjust things at will vis a vis ourselves. Now, they can't keep our rates super-low anymore due to the US overspending being out of control. Japan alone, can't do this anymore. Despite heroically low rates that are far, far below the rate of inflation in Japan itself. Japan no longer controls 50% of our trade deficit. China has taken over that role."

http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/money_matters/

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Moe_Gamble on March 14, 2008 - 12:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

China's in charge.

You may be right. Or maybe no one's in charge. I read an interesting 2006 paper from a Stanford guy the other day about China's predicament. He sees a limit on the amount to which they can allow the renmimbi to appreciate in value without causing a Japan-style deflation: http://www.stanford.edu/~mckinnon/papers/International%20Finance%20China...

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ET on March 14, 2008 - 12:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Although Japan is still the biggest holder of US dollars. As of Dec 07, 24% vs China's 20%. But it looks like China is catching up fast

http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

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PaulusP on March 14, 2008 - 11:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Any idea why? We may expect a drop in cargoes, but none?

Edit: May it have to do with the severe weather of last month? Maybe they have no place to store more product. Sounds unlikely.

Edit2: Or is April the assigned month to toast Iran?

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whaleoil on March 14, 2008 - 12:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I've been predicting March 31 for the last two years, if it's gonna happen. Have to do it at the end of the heating oil season. Ultimately far more important than summer gas, and also competes with far more important diesel and jet fuel in the cracking towers. Don't forget, Iraq was March 22.

Let's see: Cheney is touring middle east, Saudi Arabia(surplus oil production--ppfff!), Oman(bases), Turkey(bases, but they will say no), Israel(fighter bombers). Rice and Gates go to Russia next week.

Could be interesting.

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TheMagus on March 14, 2008 - 9:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Bear in mind that if the USA should attack Iran, it would be an action considered by the leaders of the USA to be in the best interests of their country. From what I can gather, they believe that the USA will be worse off if Iran produce nuclear weapons than if they move with extreme prejudice to prevent them being able to do so even if it sends the price of oil to the moon. Militarily, the USA is currently king of the Middle East, and must remain so to remain king of the world.

The date of such an event would become the most famous date in the life of every single person alive, and every single person to be born thereafter.
It would become considered as the date of "Peak Oil" down to the minute, as world oil supplies would never recover to that level, IMO.
It would become a date that makes 9/11 seem like a non event in comparison.

I would speculate (wildly) that DC is off to SA to deliver King Thing the bad news and advise him to take one last joyride down to Ras Tanura for a few snapshots while it is still nice and shiny, as a dozen Iranian missiles may be putting a few dents in it in the not too distant future...

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DaveMart on March 14, 2008 - 9:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Israel considers it in the best interests of their country to deal with the Iranians - they have said so repeatedly.

Apart from the close ties between the neo-cons and the Israeli's, politically there is very little the Americans can do to stop them, and so may have decided to act themselves.

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karlof1 on March 15, 2008 - 1:09am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"Militarily, the USA is currently king of the Middle East" This is so wrong, I don't know where to start. The US is a criminal, bankrupt Empire in its last death thros. Its hubris is its worst enemy.

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