... with the release of the Iraq NIE (and consequent drop in Bush-Administration Sabre Rattling Index (BASRI), the world looks a little safer.

I beg to differ. With the recent stepping down (firing) of Adm. Fallon, and the continuous ramping up of anti-Iran rhetoric, the chances for more American military action in the Middle East looks to have increased, not decreased. All-out war in that region would certainly make a very strong case for discontinuities, perhaps for extended periods of time.