The Oil Drum

Perhaps the best investment that many of us could make would be to buy and then lease land out to organic farmers, and then do a sharecropping arrangement--taking a share of crops as a lease payment (which could be sold on your behalf by the Lessee).

My family has made a living doing this.

And being the bank, providing credit and selling on their behalf.

WT-
I agree on your analysis.
The local farmers markets here in Marin are packed, with mainly young farmers, often well educated and making lifestyle decisions. They have become vibrant social gatherings, with music and art also, along with prepared food.
Sharing of good farmland with a arranged benefit for all is a model that will work.
I'm off to one this morning----

WT,

While I don't necessarily disagree with your suggestion of buying land, I really believe that people have to make the effort to develop a "realistic" future scenario. We all recognize the risk in this since it is difficult/impossible to "know" the future. Yet, it has to be done. To me, it is not that much more difficult than preparing a business risk management plan. This can be as simple as playing a "what if - then what" game or as complex as including error bars.

Dimitry Orlov (sp) certainly offers insights as well some other writings on the Internet as to what happened in Argentina. There are also fictional works such as Jim Rawles' excellent book Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse that contains really useful information unlike Kunstler's crap (mentioned up top).

In addition, it may make more sense for many people with limited funds to invest in their own survival via reducing their energy needs while producing their own food. I've suggested the 1979 book, The Integral Urban House, on several occasions.

Finally, I'd also suggest that people take a look at Jeff Vail's Rhizome series. http://www.jeffvail.com

Todd

'Perhaps the best investment that many of us could make would be to buy and then leese land out to organic farmers, and then do a sharecropping arrangement--taking a share of crops as a lease payment (which could be sold on your behalf by the lessee).'

I like the idea WT but see a problem with it. All governments will soon be strapped for revenues and an easy tax target is property. Taxes will be increased to the breaking point for many farmers and small land holders. Making mortgage payments will become problematic. The large farm operations will probably be given preferential treatment (if they still exist), as they are now, by tax collectors. Home owners and commercial renters in many parts of the country are already feeling extreme tax pressure. Of course portablity is another issue. What if GW causes current rain fall patterns to shift and the currently productive farms are short of water?

I believe that better stores of wealth are to be found in commodities. Once economies stagnate and stabilize, commodities will retain value and not be as subject to price volitility and taxation if properly shielded from tax collectors. Of course there will be no revenue stream from stored commodities except on the sale or barter of the commodities. As an option I propose one store commodities now and use them as a bridge to the future, a bridge over troubled waters, when they will be useful in the purchase of a busines as opportunities are identified. The sought after future revenue stream might very well be a farm/sharecropper arrangement but storage of commodities now will provide more options in the future. By 'commodities' I mean those that can be held and transported by the owner, and shielded from tax collectors.

Hi Jeffrey,

Thanks and...

1) Just a "pro-forma" counterpoint, before my questions...the President appears to have the power to actually take over just about anything, as per this article, (which I believe was originally posted here on TOD - but I can't find the link.)

http://www.chattanoogan.com/articles/article_107907.asp

Bush Makes Power Grab - And Response
posted May 24, 2007

President Bush, without so much as issuing a press statement, on May 9 signed a directive that granted near dictatorial powers to the office of the president in the event of a national emergency declared by the president.

The "National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive," with the dual designation of NSPD-51, as a National Security Presidential Directive, and HSPD-20, as a Homeland Security Presidential Directive, establishes under the office of president a new National Continuity Coordinator.

2) I like your idea, and I posted questions a while back that maybe you didn't see (or...?)

Question #1: It must be the case there are large tracts of farm land slated for the "conversion-to-suburbia" process, where developers have already purchased and are "on hold" just "waiting for the market" - to pick up. (In fact, I happen to know of at least one parcel - I guess it would be considered small-to-medium-sized - where the developers are doing exactly this.)

It seems parts of CA (Central Valley, for eg.) and TX are potential good locations to look for land in this category.

Likewise, given the stats on small farmers selling, there must be many conventional farms for sale (though haven't researched this lately.)

So, it seems like the first major requirement is there.

My question is: Where does one find potential investors?

From among the peak-oil aware? Or...?

Would it require convincing these example developers (see above) that their plans are for naught and they'd best go in an entirely different direction? But it's one with less immediate "pay-off" - yes?

And...attempting to *convince* people about the facts and/or economic implications of peak oil...? A questionable undertaking (in my experience), which seems like a tough pre-requisite for selling investors on an idea.

It also seems to me that people with sufficient funds to invest would have already done so - and/or have the capability to simply hire someone to do their own looking around - no need for other investors, etc. (?)

2) Where and how does one go about also finding the organic farmers who are educated, willing to move, and with a track record - to do this conversion?

Or, would you try to find investors (again, from where?) and then find, perhaps, a farmer willing to do the setting up and conversion process and not permanently re-locate?

3) If not too personal a question, is this something you've actually done or know of others who have done?